Philadelphia @ Washington props

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 54.2% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and tendencies of each team, the model projects this game (with an average of 26.34 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week. This year, the imposing Eagles defense has allowed a mere 60.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 5th-best rate in the league. The Philadelphia cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 54.2% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and tendencies of each team, the model projects this game (with an average of 26.34 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week. This year, the strong Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded a feeble 72.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL. As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Philadelphia's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the league.

A rushing game script is implied by the Eagles being a 4-point favorite in this week's contest. The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 46.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the projection model to run only 64.7 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.

A rushing game script is implied by the Eagles being a 4-point favorite in this week's contest. The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 46.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the projection model to run only 64.7 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league. A.J. Brown's play as a receiver has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 5.1 adjusted receptions compared to 6.2 last season.

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. The 5th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 60.2 per game on average).

The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 59.6 plays per game. The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board. Saquon Barkley's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 72.6% to 86.7%. The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.