Baltimore @ Pittsburgh props

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 52.1% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week. The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense metrics across the board. The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal approach. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.61 seconds per play. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (41.6 per game) this year. Najee Harris has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 9.8% this year, which puts him in the 75th percentile when it comes to running backs.

The projections expect Mark Andrews to notch 4.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among TEs. Mark Andrews's 84.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a noteworthy boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 74.4% rate.

The model projects Zay Flowers to notch 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among wideouts. Zay Flowers has been a key part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 26.2% this year, which places him in the 92nd percentile among WRs. Zay Flowers has been one of the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 5.0 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 87th percentile. Zay Flowers comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL, catching an outstanding 72.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile among WRs. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Pittsburgh's unit has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the worst in football.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal approach. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.61 seconds per play. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (41.6 per game) this year. Pat Freiermuth has run a route on 76.1% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 86th percentile among TEs. With a stellar 3.3 adjusted receptions per game (76th percentile) this year, Pat Freiermuth ranks as one of the leading TEs in the pass game in the NFL.