Kansas City @ Buffalo props

The model projects this game to see the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Bills pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.8%) versus running backs this year (78.8%).

The model projects this game to see the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This year, the daunting Buffalo Bills defense has yielded a measly 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.

Our trusted projections expect the Bills to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Bills this year (only 53.9 per game on average). James Cook's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 83.8% to 80.7%. The Kansas City defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best DT corps in the league this year with their pass rush.

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.2% pass rate. The leading projections forecast Dawson Knox to accumulate 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs. While Dawson Knox has accounted for 5.5% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Buffalo's passing offense in this week's contest at 15.0%. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (81.9%) vs. tight ends this year (81.9%).

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 61.8% of their plays: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The 3rd-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.3 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 9th-most in the league. Our trusted projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to earn 7.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to WRs. While DeAndre Hopkins has accounted for 13.6% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Kansas City's passing offense in this contest at 21.5%.

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.2% pass rate. In this game, Khalil Shakir is forecasted by the projections to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.0 targets. Khalil Shakir has been much more involved in his offense's passing offense this year (21.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (7.8%). Khalil Shakir's receiving performance has been refined this season, accumulating 5.4 adjusted catches vs just 2.4 last season. Khalil Shakir's 91.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a significant improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 86.7% figure.