Carolina @ Tampa Bay props

The Buccaneers are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect this game to chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week, averaging 26.41 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 9th-fewest in football.

The Buccaneers are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect this game to chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week, averaging 26.41 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 9th-fewest in football.

At the moment, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (58.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Carolina Panthers. The predictive model expects the Panthers to run the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics. The 4th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Panthers this year (a mere 54.7 per game on average). Adam Thielen has been a much smaller piece of his offense's air attack this season (20.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (26.7%). Adam Thielen's receiving skills have tailed off this year, totaling just 4.8 adjusted receptions compared to 6.1 last year.

The Panthers are a massive 8-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Opposing teams have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Buccaneers defense this year: most in football. Chuba Hubbard's 60.6% Route Participation% this season signifies a significant growth in his passing offense workload over last season's 42.6% mark. This week, Chuba Hubbard is forecasted by our trusted projection set to land in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.0 targets. Chuba Hubbard grades out as one of the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an excellent 2.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year. The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (87.4%) versus running backs this year (87.4%). The Panthers safeties project as the 9th-worst safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Panthers are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Opposing teams have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Buccaneers defense this year: most in football. While Raheem Blackshear has been responsible for 0.0% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Carolina's pass game in this contest at 8.0%. The Buccaneers safeties project as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.