Atlanta @ Denver props

Our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 9th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate. Kyle Pitts's 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 44.8. The Falcons offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Denver's group of safeties has been excellent this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 133.0 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (35.4 per game) this year. In this week's game, Drake London is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.5 targets. Drake London's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.8 adjusted receptions vs a measly 4.3 last year.

Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline. The Falcons defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (36.9 per game) this year. The predictive model expects Courtland Sutton to garner 8.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wideouts. Courtland Sutton's 62.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 92nd percentile for wide receivers.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 133.0 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (35.4 per game) this year. Bijan Robinson has run a route on 62.3% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs. With a fantastic 4.1 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson ranks among the top pass-game running backs in football.

The projections expect the Broncos to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Adam Trautman's 7.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 17.9. Adam Trautman is positioned as one of the bottom TE receiving threats this year, averaging a measly 1.1 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 14th percentile when it comes to tight ends. This year, the daunting Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a measly 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL. The Falcons linebackers profile as the 9th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.