Pittsburgh @ Cleveland props

The Steelers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 44.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) generally prompt worse passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased run volume. Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (57.6%) vs. WRs this year (57.6%).

The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a massive 61.4 per game on average). The predictive model expects Darnell Washington to be a more important option in his team's pass game in this week's contest (12.1% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played). As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Cleveland's group of LBs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

A throwing game script is implied by the Browns being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 63.1% of their chances: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week. The projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.8 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average). With a remarkable 3.1 adjusted catches per game (91st percentile) this year, Jerome Ford stands as one of the top running backs in the pass game in football.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being called for in this game) typically cause worse passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume. David Njoku's 34.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 41.5. The Cleveland O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board. The Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.3%) versus tight ends this year (71.3%). When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Pittsburgh's group of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being called for in this game) typically cause worse passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume. The Cleveland O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board. Jerry Jeudy's 54.9% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a material drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last year's 64.6% figure. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (60.9%) versus wideouts this year (60.9%).

The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a massive 61.4 per game on average). Najee Harris's 15.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 10.0. The Cleveland Browns pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (88.9%) versus running backs this year (88.9%). As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Cleveland's group of LBs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a massive 61.4 per game on average). Pat Freiermuth has run a route on 75.3% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs. Pat Freiermuth ranks as one of the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 3.1 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 77th percentile. Pat Freiermuth's 92.2% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching talent over last season's 73.2% rate.

A throwing game script is implied by the Browns being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 58.6% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip among all teams this week. The projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average).