Miami @ Cleveland props

A running game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a 3-point favorite in this week's game. The model projects the Dolphins as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.1% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being forecasted in this game) usually mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher run volume. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Browns, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 32.4 per game) this year. Tyreek Hill's 4.7 adjusted receptions per game this season indicates a meaningful reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 7.4 mark.

The Browns may pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Cleveland Browns. Jerry Jeudy's 4.8 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a noteworthy gain in his pass-catching ability over last season's 3.4 rate. The Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (70.4%).

The Browns may pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Cleveland Browns. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 135.5 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. With a remarkable 2.8 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Jerome Ford places as one of the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL.

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to utilize backup QB Tyler Huntley in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are anticipated by the projections to run 68.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. The Dolphins have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 60.1 plays per game. The predictive model expects Devon Achane to total 5.3 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs. Devon Achane's 5.1 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a noteable progression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 2.5 rate.

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to utilize backup QB Tyler Huntley in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are anticipated by the projections to run 68.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. The Dolphins have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 60.1 plays per game. In this week's contest, Jonnu Smith is forecasted by the model to place in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.2 targets. Jonnu Smith's receiving performance has been refined this year, averaging 5.1 adjusted catches vs just 3.3 last year.

The Browns may pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Cleveland Browns. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 135.5 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. Jordan Akins's 74.3% Adjusted Catch% this season shows an impressive progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 70.9% mark.

Elijah Moore has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Malik Washington has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.