New England @ Miami props

This week's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are heavily favored by 7.5 points. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 55.5% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the projection model to call only 62.2 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week. Tyreek Hill's 61.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 77.5. Tyreek Hill's 4.2 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a remarkable decline in his receiving prowess over last year's 7.4 figure.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 60.0 plays per game. The model projects Jonnu Smith to total 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among TEs. Jonnu Smith's 35.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 28.8. With a stellar 3.9 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Jonnu Smith has been as one of the top pass-catching TEs in the league. Jonnu Smith's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 71.6% to 77.6%.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Patriots being an enormous -7.5-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Hunter Henry has been used less as a potential target this year (82.2% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (71.6%). In this week's game, Hunter Henry is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 90th percentile among TEs with 6.5 targets. Hunter Henry's receiving skills have gotten a boost this year, notching 4.3 adjusted catches vs a measly 3.3 last year.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Patriots being an enormous -7.5-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Demario Douglas's 4.5 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a significant boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 3.5 figure. Demario Douglas's 77.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a material progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 64.1% figure. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.7%) versus wide receivers this year (69.7%).

This week's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are heavily favored by 7.5 points. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 55.5% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the projection model to call only 62.2 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week. The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.5%) versus RBs this year (82.5%).

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Patriots being an enormous -7.5-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to garner 3.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs. Rhamondre Stevenson profiles as one of the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 2.9 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 87th percentile. This year, the weak Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a massive 89.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 4th-biggest rate in football.