Detroit @ San Francisco Props

A rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to pass on 57.3% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see just 127.2 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the 49ers defense this year: fewest in the league. The 49ers linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

A rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to pass on 57.3% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see just 127.2 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the 49ers defense this year: fewest in the league. This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded a paltry 59.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.

A rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to pass on 57.3% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see just 127.2 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the 49ers defense this year: fewest in the league. Sam LaPorta's 34.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 45.9.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 57.9% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week. The projections expect the 49ers to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a mere 55.3 per game on average). When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the 49ers ranks as the worst in the league this year. The Lions pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (65.5%) to tight ends this year (65.5%).

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 57.9% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week. The projections expect the 49ers to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a mere 55.3 per game on average). When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the 49ers ranks as the worst in the league this year. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Detroit's collection of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the best in football.

This game's spread implies a throwing game script for the 49ers, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Lions defense this year: 5th-most in the league. In this contest, Jauan Jennings is predicted by the predictive model to position himself in the 88th percentile among wideouts with 8.5 targets. Jauan Jennings's 4.9 adjusted catches per game this year shows a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 1.6 figure.

Tim Patrick has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Jameson Williams has gone over 3.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Deebo Samuel has gone over 4.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Ricky Pearsall has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.