PIT -3.5 o37.0
CLE 3.5 u37.0
DET -7.5 o49.5
IND 7.5 u49.5
TEN 9.0 o41.0
HOU -9.0 u41.0
NE 7.0 o46.5
MIA -7.0 u46.5
MIN -3.5 o39.0
CHI 3.5 u39.0
KC -11.0 o43.0
CAR 11.0 u43.0
TB -5.5 o41.5
NYG 5.5 u41.5
DAL 10.5 o45.0
WAS -10.5 u45.0
DEN -5.0 o40.5
LV 5.0 u40.5
SF 2.5 o47.0
GB -2.5 u47.0
ARI 1.0 o48.0
SEA -1.0 u48.0
PHI -3.0 o49.5
LA 3.0 u49.5
BAL -3.0 o50.0
LAC 3.0 u50.0
Minnesota 2nd NFC North8-2
Chicago 4th NFC North4-6

Minnesota @ Chicago props

Soldier Field

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Cole Kmet Receptions Made Props • Chicago

C. Kmet
tight end TE • Chicago
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.4
Best Odds
Under
-105
Prop
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection
2.4
Best Odds
Under
-105
Projection Rating

The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Cole Kmet has been a much smaller part of his team's passing offense this season (13.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (20.4%). Cole Kmet's play as a receiver has tailed off this year, totaling a mere 3.6 adjusted receptions compared to 4.9 last year. The Minnesota Vikings linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Cole Kmet

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.4
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.4

The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Cole Kmet has been a much smaller part of his team's passing offense this season (13.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (20.4%). Cole Kmet's play as a receiver has tailed off this year, totaling a mere 3.6 adjusted receptions compared to 4.9 last year. The Minnesota Vikings linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

DJ Moore Receptions Made Props • Chicago

D. Moore
wide receiver WR • Chicago
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.3
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection
4.3
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. D.J. Moore's 24.4% Target Share this season indicates a substantial decrease in his air attack workload over last season's 30.0% rate. D.J. Moore's pass-catching performance declined this season, totaling a measly 4.6 adjusted catches compared to 5.7 last season. D.J. Moore's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 73.2% to 66.0%. The Minnesota Vikings linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

DJ Moore

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.3
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.3

The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. D.J. Moore's 24.4% Target Share this season indicates a substantial decrease in his air attack workload over last season's 30.0% rate. D.J. Moore's pass-catching performance declined this season, totaling a measly 4.6 adjusted catches compared to 5.7 last season. D.J. Moore's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 73.2% to 66.0%. The Minnesota Vikings linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Made Props • Minnesota

T. Hockenson
tight end TE • Minnesota
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.9
Best Odds
Over
-160
Prop
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection
3.9
Best Odds
Over
-160
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.5% pass rate. The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to total 5.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile among TEs. With an impressive 5.9 adjusted receptions per game (97th percentile) since the start of last season, T.J. Hockenson places as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL. T.J. Hockenson's 82.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a substantial improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 75.2% figure.

T.J. Hockenson

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.9
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.9

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.5% pass rate. The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to total 5.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile among TEs. With an impressive 5.9 adjusted receptions per game (97th percentile) since the start of last season, T.J. Hockenson places as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL. T.J. Hockenson's 82.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a substantial improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 75.2% figure.

Justin Jefferson Receptions Made Props • Minnesota

J. Jefferson
wide receiver WR • Minnesota
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.6
Best Odds
Over
-160
Prop
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection
5.6
Best Odds
Over
-160
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.5% pass rate. The projections expect Justin Jefferson to accrue 9.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wideouts. Justin Jefferson's 78.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 70.9. With a fantastic 5.9 adjusted receptions per game (94th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates as one of the best WRs in the NFL in the NFL.

Justin Jefferson

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.6
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.6

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.5% pass rate. The projections expect Justin Jefferson to accrue 9.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wideouts. Justin Jefferson's 78.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 70.9. With a fantastic 5.9 adjusted receptions per game (94th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates as one of the best WRs in the NFL in the NFL.

Jordan Addison Receptions Made Props • Minnesota

J. Addison
wide receiver WR • Minnesota
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
--
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Over
+112
Under
-146
Prop
3.5 Receptions Made
Season Avg.
--
Best Odds
Over
+112
Under
-146

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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