LIVE 08:46 3rd Nov 10
DET 13 -4.0 o49.0
HOU 23 4.0 u49.0
MIA 1.5 o49.0
LA -1.5 u49.0
Final Nov 7
CIN 34 6.0 o53.0
BAL 35 -6.0 u53.0
Final OT Nov 10
NYG 17 -7.0 o40.0
CAR 20 7.0 u40.0
Final Nov 10
SF 23 -6.5 o49.5
TB 20 6.5 u49.5
Final Nov 10
ATL 17 -3.5 o47.0
NO 20 3.5 u47.0
Final Nov 10
PIT 28 2.5 o45.5
WAS 27 -2.5 u45.5
Final Nov 10
DEN 14 7.0 o42.5
KC 16 -7.0 u42.5
Final Nov 10
BUF 30 -4.5 o47.0
IND 20 4.5 u47.0
Final Nov 10
MIN 12 -7.0 o42.0
JAC 7 7.0 u42.0
Final Nov 10
NE 19 6.0 o37.5
CHI 3 -6.0 u37.5
Final Nov 10
TEN 17 8.0 o40.0
LAC 27 -8.0 u40.0
Final Nov 10
NYJ 6 -2.0 o46.0
ARI 31 2.0 u46.0
Final Nov 10
PHI 34 -7.0 o45.0
DAL 6 7.0 u45.0
Houston 1st AFC South6-3
New England 3rd AFC East3-7
CBS

Houston @ New England props

Gillette Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Dalton Schultz Receptions Made Props • Houston

D. Schultz
tight end TE • Houston
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.1
Best Odds
Under
-120
Prop
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection
3.1
Best Odds
Under
-120
Projection Rating

The Texans are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script. Dalton Schultz's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 34.7. The Texans O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board. Dalton Schultz's 2.7 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 3.9 rate. Dalton Schultz's 59.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a significant reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 70.0% figure.

Dalton Schultz

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.1
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.1

The Texans are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script. Dalton Schultz's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 34.7. The Texans O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board. Dalton Schultz's 2.7 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 3.9 rate. Dalton Schultz's 59.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a significant reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 70.0% figure.

Stefon Diggs Receptions Made Props • Houston

S. Diggs
wide receiver WR • Houston
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.4
Best Odds
Under
+104

The Texans are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script. Stefon Diggs's 22.3% Target Rate this year illustrates a significant reduction in his air attack utilization over last year's 29.9% rate. The Texans O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Stefon Diggs

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.4
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.4

The Texans are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script. Stefon Diggs's 22.3% Target Rate this year illustrates a significant reduction in his air attack utilization over last year's 29.9% rate. The Texans O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Joe Mixon Receptions Made Props • Houston

J. Mixon
running back RB • Houston
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.2
Best Odds
Under
-132

The Texans are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script. The Texans O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Joe Mixon

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.2
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.2

The Texans are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script. The Texans O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

DeMario Douglas Receptions Made Props • New England

D. Douglas
wide receiver WR • New England
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.5
Best Odds
Over
+135

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 127.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Demario Douglas's 76.9% Route% this season conveys a substantial gain in his passing offense workload over last season's 59.2% rate. Demario Douglas's 4.5 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a noteable gain in his receiving proficiency over last year's 3.5 mark. Demario Douglas's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 64.1% to 82.7%.

DeMario Douglas

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.5
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.5

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 127.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Demario Douglas's 76.9% Route% this season conveys a substantial gain in his passing offense workload over last season's 59.2% rate. Demario Douglas's 4.5 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a noteable gain in his receiving proficiency over last year's 3.5 mark. Demario Douglas's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 64.1% to 82.7%.

Antonio Gibson Receptions Made Props • New England

A. Gibson
running back RB • New England
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.9
Best Odds
Over
-148

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 127.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. The predictive model expects Antonio Gibson to earn 4.1 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs. While Antonio Gibson has earned 7.2% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in New England's offense in this week's contest at 14.0%. Antonio Gibson's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 84.6% to 88.9%.

Antonio Gibson

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.9
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.9

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 127.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. The predictive model expects Antonio Gibson to earn 4.1 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs. While Antonio Gibson has earned 7.2% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in New England's offense in this week's contest at 14.0%. Antonio Gibson's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 84.6% to 88.9%.

Hunter Henry Receptions Made Props • New England

H. Henry
tight end TE • New England
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.5
Best Odds
Over
-128

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 127.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Our trusted projections expect Hunter Henry to accumulate 4.7 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among tight ends. Hunter Henry's 44.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 33.2. With a fantastic 3.2 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) this year, Hunter Henry stands among the best TE receiving threats in the league.

Hunter Henry

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.5
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.5

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 127.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Our trusted projections expect Hunter Henry to accumulate 4.7 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among tight ends. Hunter Henry's 44.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 33.2. With a fantastic 3.2 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) this year, Hunter Henry stands among the best TE receiving threats in the league.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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