Houston @ New England props

The Texans are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script. Dalton Schultz's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 34.7. The Texans O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board. Dalton Schultz's 2.7 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 3.9 rate. Dalton Schultz's 59.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a significant reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 70.0% figure.

The Texans are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script. Stefon Diggs's 22.3% Target Rate this year illustrates a significant reduction in his air attack utilization over last year's 29.9% rate. The Texans O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Texans are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script. The Texans O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 127.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Demario Douglas's 76.9% Route% this season conveys a substantial gain in his passing offense workload over last season's 59.2% rate. Demario Douglas's 4.5 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a noteable gain in his receiving proficiency over last year's 3.5 mark. Demario Douglas's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 64.1% to 82.7%.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 127.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. The predictive model expects Antonio Gibson to earn 4.1 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs. While Antonio Gibson has earned 7.2% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in New England's offense in this week's contest at 14.0%. Antonio Gibson's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 84.6% to 88.9%.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 127.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Our trusted projections expect Hunter Henry to accumulate 4.7 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among tight ends. Hunter Henry's 44.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 33.2. With a fantastic 3.2 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) this year, Hunter Henry stands among the best TE receiving threats in the league.