Dallas @ Philadelphia props

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Cowboys grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year. Brandin Cooks's 2.4 adjusted receptions per game this season conveys a significant diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 3.4 mark. Brandin Cooks's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 66.4% to 54.2%. This year, the stout Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded a measly 60.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 4th-smallest rate in football.

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Eagles are overwhelmingly favored in this week's contest, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 44.7% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually correlate with lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume. Opposing offenses have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. Saquon Barkley's 18.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 27.4.

The Cowboys will be rolling with backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. An extreme passing game script is implied by the Cowboys being a huge -7.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.7% of their downs: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week. The projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Cowboys this year (a massive 60.4 per game on average).

The Eagles may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Kenny Pickett. The leading projections forecast the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The 6th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Eagles this year (a whopping 60.1 per game on average). In this contest, A.J. Brown is projected by the model to finish in the 94th percentile among wideouts with 9.2 targets. A.J. Brown profiles as one of the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an excellent 5.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.

The Eagles may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Kenny Pickett. The leading projections forecast the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The 6th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Eagles this year (a whopping 60.1 per game on average). Grant Calcaterra's 54.5% Route Participation Rate this year signifies a substantial gain in his pass game workload over last year's 7.7% rate. With an outstanding 91.3% Adjusted Completion Rate (100th percentile) this year, Grant Calcaterra stands among the most sure-handed receivers in football among tight ends.

The Cowboys will be rolling with backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. An extreme passing game script is implied by the Cowboys being a huge -7.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.7% of their downs: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week. The projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Cowboys this year (a massive 60.4 per game on average).

Jalen Tolbert has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

KaVontae Turpin has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

DeVonta Smith has gone over 4.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.