Atlanta @ Carolina props

Right now, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Right now, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers. Diontae Johnson's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 61.3% to 53.5%. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script. Opposing offenses teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.4 per game) this year. Bijan Robinson's 14.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 24.9. When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Falcons grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year. Since the start of last season, the fierce Carolina Panthers defense has allowed a puny 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Right now, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers. This year, the fierce Falcons defense has allowed a paltry 81.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 10th-lowest rate in the league. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. In this game, Drake London is projected by the model to land in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.4 targets. With an elite 27.2% Target Share (93rd percentile) this year, Drake London rates as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in football. Drake London's 6.5 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a significant improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 4.3 rate. Drake London's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 64.6% to 74.0%.

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script. Opposing offenses teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.4 per game) this year. Kyle Pitts's 30.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 44.8. When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Falcons grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.