Dallas @ Washington props

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 47.4% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.0 per game) this year.

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL. As it relates to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year. Rico Dowdle's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 81.7% to 76.3%. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL. As it relates to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 47.4% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.0 per game) this year.

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 47.4% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.0 per game) this year. Brian Robinson's play as a receiver has diminished this year, notching a measly 1.2 adjusted receptions vs 2.4 last year. Brian Robinson's 83.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a substantial drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 90.4% rate.

The Dallas Cowboys will be rolling out backup QB Cooper Rush in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are big underdogs this week, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week. The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a whopping 61.3 per game on average).