Dallas @ Washington props

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 47.5% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.0 per game) this year.

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL. CeeDee Lamb's 60.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 71.1. As it relates to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year. CeeDee Lamb's 6.8 adjusted receptions per game this season shows a meaningful decrease in his receiving prowess over last season's 7.9 figure. CeeDee Lamb's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 74.7% to 66.6%.