Los Angeles @ New England props

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 6 points. The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chargers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.6 plays per game. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Patriots, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.7 per game) this year.

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 6 points. The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chargers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.6 plays per game. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Patriots, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.7 per game) this year.

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Patriots, who are -6-point underdogs. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may decline. Demario Douglas is positioned as one of the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 4.2 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 75th percentile. Demario Douglas's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.1% to 78.9%.

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Patriots, who are -6-point underdogs. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may decline. Rhamondre Stevenson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 80.9% to 85.8%.

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Patriots, who are -6-point underdogs. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may decline. Our trusted projections expect Hunter Henry to accumulate 6.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends. Hunter Henry's 45.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 33.2. Hunter Henry's receiving skills have been refined this season, averaging 4.5 adjusted catches vs a mere 3.3 last season.

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this contest, Will Dissly is anticipated by the model to place in the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.5 targets. Will Dissly has been a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this year (15.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (3.5%). Will Dissly's 3.3 adjusted receptions per game this year shows an impressive boost in his receiving skills over last year's 1.4 figure. The New England Patriots linebackers profile as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Austin Hooper has gone over 2.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Kendrick Bourne has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Antonio Gibson has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Kayshon Boutte has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Quentin Johnston has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Joshua Palmer has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.