Denver @ Cincinnati props

Courtland Sutton's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 68.4% to 61.7%. This year, the fierce Bengals defense has given up a measly 62.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 8th-lowest rate in the league.

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.75 seconds per snap. When talking about pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Cincinnati Bengals profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Denver's collection of CBs has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.7% of their chances: the greatest clip among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and lower run volume. The Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (38.3 per game) this year. The predictive model expects Chase Brown to garner 6.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs. Chase Brown's 18.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 4.5.

The Broncos are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 59.1% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate on the slate this week. With respect to a defense's impact on pace, at 27.33 seconds per snap, the model projects the Broncos to be the 4th-quickest in football (context-neutralized) at the present time. The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.7 per game) this year.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.7% of their chances: the greatest clip among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and lower run volume. The Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (38.3 per game) this year. The projections expect Mike Gesicki to total 3.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs. Mike Gesicki's pass-catching performance been refined this year, averaging 3.4 adjusted receptions vs a mere 2.0 last year.

Tee Higgins has gone over 5.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Drew Sample has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Andrei Iosivas has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Marvin Mims has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Jaleel McLaughlin has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Devaughn Vele has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Audric Estime has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Troy Franklin has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.