The Texans enter the postseason as the worst offensive unit in the tournament, ranked 21st in EPA per play and 31st in success rate per snap. Houston’s attack has peaked at 23 points over the previous five games and red-zone woes are at the core of that punchless playbook, going 5 for 15 in the RZ in that span. The Chargers defense tightens up at the right time, owning the lowest touchdown rate allowed inside the red zone (45%) as well as the fifth lowest third down conversion percentage. Both offenses play a methodical pace, utilizing hurry-up tactics and the fifth and seventh lowest rate, and L.A. aims to control tempo with a playbook that can anchor itself in the rushing game. The Chargers are among the better teams in dominating time of possession with that snail’s pace and parking the opposing attack on the sideline.
The Los Angeles Chargers turned it up in Week 18 with a comeback victory in Vegas to snatch the No. 5 seed away from the Steelers. That sends LA to Houston, where bookies have set the Bolts at short road favorites. Los Angeles is far from elite, especially on defense, but Houston’s attack has lacked punch and enters the Wild Card Weekend as the lowest-rated offense in EPA per play (No. 22) as well as success rate per snap (31st). If you’re backing the Bolts, make sure you get them below a field-goal favorite on the road this weekend.
