Los Angeles @ Houston props

A running game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite in this game. The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Chargers this year (just 55.5 per game on average). The Houston Texans pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.5%) versus WRs this year (58.5%). The Houston Texans cornerbacks project as the 4th-best CB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

The Chargers rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.2% pass rate. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see just 127.7 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. In this week's game, J.K. Dobbins is predicted by the projections to finish in the 79th percentile among running backs with 3.5 targets. J.K. Dobbins checks in as one of the leading pass-game RBs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.5 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -3-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Texans as the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. With a high 77.8% Route Participation% (87th percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz ranks as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the league. In this game, Dalton Schultz is expected by the projections to position himself in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.4 targets.

The projections expect the Texans to run the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Texans offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. Joe Mixon's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 83.5% to 73.9%. This year, the fierce Chargers defense has yielded a puny 77.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-smallest rate in football. As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Los Angeles's LB corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 7th-best in the NFL.

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -3-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Texans as the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The predictive model expects Nico Collins to garner 10.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among WRs. Nico Collins's 65.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 54.3.

A running game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite in this game. The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Chargers this year (just 55.5 per game on average). Will Dissly's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 89.4% to 81.1%. The Texans pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67%) versus TEs this year (67.0%). As it relates to defensive ends pass-rushing, Houston's unit has been very good this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the NFL.