Washington @ Detroit props

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are massive underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week. The Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 60.1 plays per game. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 2nd-most in football. Zach Ertz profiles as one of the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a terrific 3.7 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Lions being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Opposing QBs have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: fewest in the NFL. This year, the imposing Commanders defense has surrendered a measly 63.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 8th-smallest rate in the league. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's unit has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the league.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Lions being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Opposing QBs have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: fewest in the NFL. This year, the stout Washington Commanders defense has allowed a measly 79.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 9th-best rate in the league. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's unit has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the league.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Lions being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Opposing QBs have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: fewest in the NFL. Sam LaPorta's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 47.3. Sam LaPorta's 3.8 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a significant diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 5.0 rate. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's unit has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the league.

The model projects the Commanders to call the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The Detroit Lions pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (62.9%) to wide receivers this year (62.9%). The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are massive underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week. The Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 60.1 plays per game. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 2nd-most in football. Austin Ekeler has been one of the best RBs in the pass game this year, averaging an exceptional 2.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

Brian Robinson has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Olamide Zaccheaus has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Dyami Brown has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Tim Patrick has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

David Montgomery has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Jameson Williams has gone over 3.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.