Baltimore @ Buffalo props

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are expected by the predictive model to run only 62.9 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week. The Buffalo Bills have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game. The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.6%) to RBs this year (79.6%). The Ravens safeties project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 49.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Derrick Henry's 58.0% Snap% this year conveys a substantial progression in his offensive usage over last year's 43.0% rate. The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.4%) vs. RBs this year (79.4%).

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are expected by the predictive model to run only 62.9 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week. The Buffalo Bills have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game. Dalton Kincaid's receiving skills have tailed off this year, totaling a mere 3.1 adjusted catches compared to 4.6 last year. Dalton Kincaid's 62.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a meaningful decrease in his receiving skills over last season's 81.6% mark. The Ravens safeties project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

The predictive model expects this game to see the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Rashod Bateman's 81.8% Route% this year shows a material improvement in his passing game utilization over last year's 57.7% figure. Rashod Bateman's 67.4% Adjusted Catch% this year represents an impressive gain in his receiving skills over last year's 58.2% mark. The Bills pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.8%) versus wide receivers this year (70.8%). The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the worst safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (35.3 per game) this year. The predictive model expects Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wideouts. Khalil Shakir has been a more integral piece of his offense's air attack this year (22.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (8.3%). The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board. Khalil Shakir's 4.8 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a noteable growth in his receiving skills over last season's 2.4 figure.

The predictive model expects this game to see the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. In this contest, Mark Andrews is projected by the projections to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.3 targets. Mark Andrews's 81.6% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a noteable growth in his receiving skills over last season's 74.4% mark. The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the worst safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.