Buffalo @ Kansas City props

Travis Kelce's 75.2% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 80.1% rate. This year, the formidable Bills defense has given up a measly 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.

The smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Bills this year (a mere 55.4 per game on average). Dalton Kincaid's 2.9 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a remarkable reduction in his receiving ability over last year's 4.6 figure. Dalton Kincaid's 61.9% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving skills over last year's 81.6% figure. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Kansas City's unit has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

This year, the fierce Buffalo Bills defense has given up a measly 79.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.

The smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Bills this year (a mere 55.4 per game on average). Khalil Shakir's 80.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a meaningful regression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 86.7% rate. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Kansas City's unit has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average). The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may suffer. The Bills pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.9%) versus wide receivers this year (70.9%).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 132.5 plays on offense run: the lowest number out of all the games this week. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume. The predictive model expects James Cook to accrue 2.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs. The Bills O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

Amari Cooper has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Keon Coleman has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Noah Gray has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Samaje Perine has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Hollywood Brown has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 5 games.

Dawson Knox has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Mack Hollins has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Ty Johnson has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Isiah Pacheco has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

DeAndre Hopkins has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

JuJu Smith-Schuster has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Curtis Samuel has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.