LIVE 12:46 1st Sep 13
CHI 0 -2.5 o46.5
CAR 0 2.5 u46.5
LIVE 10:33 1st Sep 13
BAL 0 -2.5 o48.0
IND 6 2.5 u48.0
LIVE 12:04 1st Sep 13
ATL 0 6.5 o40.5
PIT 0 -6.5 u40.5
LIVE 10:19 1st Sep 13
CLE 0 8.5 o40.5
JAC 0 -8.5 u40.5
LIVE 10:27 1st Sep 13
TB 0 3.5 o50.0
CIN 0 -3.5 u50.0
LIVE 11:10 1st Sep 13
NYJ 0 1.5 o39.5
TEN 0 -1.5 u39.5
LIVE 10:14 1st Sep 13
NO 0 6.5 o50.0
DET 0 -6.5 u50.0
LIVE 11:15 1st Sep 13
BUF 0 -1.5 o44.5
HOU 0 1.5 u44.5
ARI 9.5 o47.0
LAC -9.5 u47.0
GB 2.5 o45.5
MIN -2.5 u45.5
MIA 2.5 o40.5
LV -2.5 u40.5
WAS 6.5 o44.0
PHI -6.5 u44.0
DAL -3.5 o47.0
NYG 3.5 u47.0
DEN 2.5 o43.5
KC -2.5 u43.5
Final Sep 9
NE 10 3.5 o44.0
SEA 13 -3.5 u44.0
Final Sep 10
SF 27 3.5 o47.5
LA 7 -3.5 u47.5
Tampa Bay 2nd NFC South0-0
Cincinnati 4th AFC North0-0

Buccaneers vs Bengals   Picks & Props

TB vs CIN Picks

NFL Picks
Anytime Touchdown
Bucky Irving logo Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes: +134)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

With former WR Mike Evans no longer on the team, I'm betting on Irving getting a bigger role in Tampa Bay's offense this season. 

Rushing Yards
Baker Mayfield logo Baker Mayfield o14.5 Rushing Yards (-131)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

Baker Mayfield played through injury most of last season and he still ran for +16 yards in 10 games.

Spread
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail TB +3.5 (-111)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should have the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, especially after bad injury luck last season. Tampa also started 6-2 last year before the wheels fell off due to injury. This includes road wins at the Houston Texans and Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, plus a win over the San Francisco 49ers. 

Spread
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail TB +3.5 (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The matchup I’m most interested in is Todd Bowles’ pass rush versus the Cincinnati offensive line. The Bengals’ protection showed positives in the second half of 2025 but those followed seasons of horrible protection. By that shitty standard, any improvements were notable. Many preseason ratings list this o-line among the bottom 10. Tampa Bay’s stop unit is going to bring the heat – or it’ll die trying. That was the problem last year. Bowles blitzed at the fourth highest rate and all it got him was the eight lowest pressure rate, leaving foes to pick apart the Bucs like a charcuterie board at HOA meeting. I like Bowles’ pass rush to get its claws back against a Cincinnati side that’s been a darling of the offseason. That public appeal has a half-point hook bubbling up on the field goal, which I’ll gladly take with Tampa Bay +3.5.

Anytime Touchdown
Bucky Irving logo Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes: +120)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 days ago
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Are you telling me I can get a potential 20-touch running back facing the Bengals at better than 50% to score a touchdown on Sunday? Sean Tucker has already been labeled a game-time decision by head coach Todd Bowles, which leaves Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell atop a Tampa backfield that lost Rachaad White. Injuries have hurt Irving in the past, but he's good to go in a game carrying a Week 1-high 51.5-point total. There are changes on the Bengals' defense, but this was the worst tackling team in football a year ago. Cincinnati allowed the most yards after catch per reception and 162 total yards per game to opposing running backs. This could be one of the longest probabilities we see all year for an RB1 to score against the Bengals.

3 LEG PARLAY
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
TB +3.5
Spread
Bucky Irving profile picture
Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes)
Anytime Touchdown
Baker Mayfield profile picture
Baker Mayfield o14.5 Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards
Bet now
Pick made: 3 days ago
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

Since I'm not sold on playing either side of this total and the Cincinnati Bengals had one of the worst defenses in the league last season, I'm throwing in a couple of Tampa Bay offensive picks.

Passing Yards
Joe Burrow logo
Joe Burrow o274.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 301.42 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.5. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (232.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense last year.. Last year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a colossal 0.00 YAC.
Passing Yards
Baker Mayfield logo
Baker Mayfield u233.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 218.63 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 124.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.0 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.
Rushing Yards
Joe Burrow logo
Joe Burrow o6.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Projection 11.66 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The Tampa Bay defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.
Rushing Yards
Baker Mayfield logo
Baker Mayfield o15.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Projection 19.35 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. With an outstanding total of 2.88 yards-after-contact (95th percentile), Baker Mayfield ranks as one of the leading rushing quarterbacks in the NFL last year.. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.
Rushing Yards
Bucky Irving logo
Bucky Irving o57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 61.09 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.
Receiving Yards
Mike Gesicki logo
Mike Gesicki o19.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 25.62 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a colossal 34.0 air yards per game last year: 83rd percentile among TEs.. The Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (56.0) vs. TEs last year.. Last year, the anemic Buccaneers defense has been torched for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Ja'Marr Chase o82.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 94.14 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.5% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to notch 11.2 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.. In regards to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 101.0 per game.. With an exceptional 82.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (99th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase has been among the best wide receivers in the game in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Bucky Irving logo
Bucky Irving o13.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 17.72 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (38.0) versus RBs last year.. The Bengals pass defense has struggled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.
Receiving Yards
Chase Brown logo
Chase Brown o23.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Projection 28.18 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Last year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a staggering 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the most in football.
Receiving Yards
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Chris Godwin Jr. o46.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 53.13 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Chris Godwin Jr. has run a route on 82.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.. Our trusted projections expect Chris Godwin Jr. to accrue 7.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus wideouts last year, conceding 8.62 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.

TB vs CIN Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

46% picking Tampa Bay

46%
54%

Total Picks TB 748, CIN 864

Spread
TB
CIN
Total

43% picking Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati to go Under

57%
43%

Total PicksTB 631, CIN 484

Total
Over
Under

TB vs CIN Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread
-4.44 PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
5.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread

PROJECTION

-4.44 PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
5.61% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-4.5 -107
DraftKings logo
TOTAL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
Under 50.0 Total
46.24 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.8 DIFFERENCE
20.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
Under 50.0 Total

PROJECTION

46.24 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.8 DIFFERENCE
20.37% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u50.5 -110
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o274.5 Passing Yards
301.42 OVER PROJECTION
+26.9 DIFFERENCE
25.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o274.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

301.42 OVER PROJECTION
+26.9 DIFFERENCE
25.98% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.5. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (232.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense last year.. Last year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a colossal 0.00 YAC.

o265.5 -115
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u233.5 Passing Yards
218.63 UNDER PROJECTION
-14.9 DIFFERENCE
23.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u233.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

218.63 UNDER PROJECTION
-14.9 DIFFERENCE
23.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 124.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.0 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u233.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards
11.66 OVER PROJECTION
+5.2 DIFFERENCE
25.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

11.66 OVER PROJECTION
+5.2 DIFFERENCE
25.69% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The Tampa Bay defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.

o6.5 -125
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards
19.35 OVER PROJECTION
+3.9 DIFFERENCE
22.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

19.35 OVER PROJECTION
+3.9 DIFFERENCE
22.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. With an outstanding total of 2.88 yards-after-contact (95th percentile), Baker Mayfield ranks as one of the leading rushing quarterbacks in the NFL last year.. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.

o15.5 -111
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards
61.09 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
16.34% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

61.09 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
16.34% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.

o57.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o19.5 Receiving Yards
25.62 OVER PROJECTION
+6.1 DIFFERENCE
24.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o19.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

25.62 OVER PROJECTION
+6.1 DIFFERENCE
24.3% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a colossal 34.0 air yards per game last year: 83rd percentile among TEs.. The Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (56.0) vs. TEs last year.. Last year, the anemic Buccaneers defense has been torched for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

o19.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o82.5 Receiving Yards
94.14 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
23.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o82.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

94.14 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
23.94% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.5% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to notch 11.2 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.. In regards to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 101.0 per game.. With an exceptional 82.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (99th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase has been among the best wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

o82.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards
17.72 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
23.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

17.72 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
23.26% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (38.0) versus RBs last year.. The Bengals pass defense has struggled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.

o10.5 -155
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o23.5 Receiving Yards
28.18 OVER PROJECTION
+4.7 DIFFERENCE
22.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

28.18 OVER PROJECTION
+4.7 DIFFERENCE
22.5% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Last year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a staggering 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the most in football.

o23.5 -111
BetMGM logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) o46.5 Receiving Yards
53.13 OVER PROJECTION
+6.6 DIFFERENCE
22.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) o46.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

53.13 OVER PROJECTION
+6.6 DIFFERENCE
22.36% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Chris Godwin Jr. has run a route on 82.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.. Our trusted projections expect Chris Godwin Jr. to accrue 7.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus wideouts last year, conceding 8.62 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.

o45.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) o55.5 Receiving Yards
56.54 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
-20.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) o55.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

56.54 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
-20.87% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus wideouts last year, conceding 8.62 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.. Last year, the poor Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing WRs: a whopping 0.00 YAC.

o52.5 -130
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.56% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Last year, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed a monstrous 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-largest rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

o1.5 -220
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
5.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
5.83% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. Chase Brown checks in as one of the top pass-game running backs last year, averaging an exceptional 3.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (90.3%) to running backs last year (90.3%).

o3.5 -101
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made
7.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
5.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
5.35% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.5% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to notch 11.2 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.. Ja'Marr Chase comes in as one of the leading WRs in the game last year, averaging an impressive 7.0 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.. The Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the NFL last year in defending pass-catchers.

o6.5 -140
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.75% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.75% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Chris Godwin Jr. has run a route on 82.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.. Our trusted projections expect Chris Godwin Jr. to accrue 7.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among WRs.

o4.5 +118
BetRivers logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts
2.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-10.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

2.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-10.9% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The Tampa Bay defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.

o2.5 -130
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts
14.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-15.74% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-15.74% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).

o14.5 -118
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts
29.68 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
15.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

29.68 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
15.47% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 124.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.0 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.

u31.5 -109
BetRivers logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts
35.84 OVER PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
5.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.84 OVER PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
5.32% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.5.

o34.5 -113
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o24.5 Passing Completions
27.06 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
17.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o24.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

27.06 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
17.7% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.5. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. The Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the NFL last year in defending pass-catchers.

o24.5 -109
BetRivers logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions
20.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
8.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
8.58% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 124.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.0 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u21.5 -133
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.7 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.7 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.11% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. The Bengals pass defense has been torched for the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (84.2%) to RBs last year (84.2%).. Last year, the feeble Bengals defense has allowed a whopping 0.41 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the 2nd-biggest rate in football.

+115
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.8 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.8 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.44% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (64.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Chase Brown places in the 94th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 22.5 mark last year.. Chase Brown grades out in the 98th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs last year, averaging an exceptional 0.26 per game.

-120
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.85% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Chris Godwin Jr. has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.2% last year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.. Chris Godwin Jr. ranks in the 76th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a staggering 40.0 mark last year.

+230
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.4% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).

+190
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.56 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.56 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.24% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (64.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. With a high 26.2% Red Zone Target Share (96th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.. In regards to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 101.0 per game.. Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the 98th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 74.7 figure last year.

-105
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.15% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (64.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a colossal 34.0 air yards per game last year: 83rd percentile among TEs.. Last year, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed a monstrous 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-largest rate in football.. The Buccaneers defense has allowed the 2nd-most touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.71 per game last year.

+420
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.18 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-15.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.18 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-15.33% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. When it comes to air yards, Cade Otton ranks in the towering 77th percentile among tight ends last year, accruing a colossal 24.0 per game.. Cade Otton ranks in the 78th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 29.0 mark last year.. The Bengals defense has surrendered the most touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.94 per game last year.

+350
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (64.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.5. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Joe Burrow has been among the top touchdown throwers in the league last year, averaging a remarkable 1.70 per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

+750
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.04 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.04 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. With zero red zone carries last year, Baker Mayfield's one-dimensionality makes him a no threat as a ball-carrier near the goal line.. Last year, the feeble Bengals defense has yielded a monstrous 1.88 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 4th-worst rate in football.

+600
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INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.47 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.47 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 124.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.0 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. Cincinnati's defense grades out as the 10th-best in football last year when it comes to inducing interceptions, accumulating 0.83 per game.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u0.5 +105
Caesars logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.73% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have just 124.4 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

u0.5 -145
bet365 logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread
-4.44 PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
5.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread

PROJECTION

-4.44 PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
5.61% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-4.5 -107
DraftKings logo
TOTAL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
Under 50.0 Total
46.24 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.8 DIFFERENCE
20.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
Under 50.0 Total

PROJECTION

46.24 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.8 DIFFERENCE
20.37% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u50.5 -110
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o274.5 Passing Yards
301.42 OVER PROJECTION
+26.9 DIFFERENCE
25.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o274.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

301.42 OVER PROJECTION
+26.9 DIFFERENCE
25.98% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.5. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (232.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense last year.. Last year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a colossal 0.00 YAC.

o265.5 -115
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u233.5 Passing Yards
218.63 UNDER PROJECTION
-14.9 DIFFERENCE
23.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u233.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

218.63 UNDER PROJECTION
-14.9 DIFFERENCE
23.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 124.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.0 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u233.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards
11.66 OVER PROJECTION
+5.2 DIFFERENCE
25.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

11.66 OVER PROJECTION
+5.2 DIFFERENCE
25.69% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The Tampa Bay defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.

o6.5 -125
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards
19.35 OVER PROJECTION
+3.9 DIFFERENCE
22.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

19.35 OVER PROJECTION
+3.9 DIFFERENCE
22.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. With an outstanding total of 2.88 yards-after-contact (95th percentile), Baker Mayfield ranks as one of the leading rushing quarterbacks in the NFL last year.. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.

o15.5 -111
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards
61.09 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
16.34% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

61.09 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
16.34% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.

o57.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o19.5 Receiving Yards
25.62 OVER PROJECTION
+6.1 DIFFERENCE
24.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o19.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

25.62 OVER PROJECTION
+6.1 DIFFERENCE
24.3% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a colossal 34.0 air yards per game last year: 83rd percentile among TEs.. The Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (56.0) vs. TEs last year.. Last year, the anemic Buccaneers defense has been torched for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

o19.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o82.5 Receiving Yards
94.14 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
23.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o82.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

94.14 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
23.94% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.5% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to notch 11.2 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.. In regards to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 101.0 per game.. With an exceptional 82.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (99th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase has been among the best wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

o82.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards
17.72 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
23.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

17.72 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
23.26% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (38.0) versus RBs last year.. The Bengals pass defense has struggled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.

o10.5 -155
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o23.5 Receiving Yards
28.18 OVER PROJECTION
+4.7 DIFFERENCE
22.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

28.18 OVER PROJECTION
+4.7 DIFFERENCE
22.5% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Last year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a staggering 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the most in football.

o23.5 -111
BetMGM logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) o46.5 Receiving Yards
53.13 OVER PROJECTION
+6.6 DIFFERENCE
22.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) o46.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

53.13 OVER PROJECTION
+6.6 DIFFERENCE
22.36% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Chris Godwin Jr. has run a route on 82.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.. Our trusted projections expect Chris Godwin Jr. to accrue 7.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus wideouts last year, conceding 8.62 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.

o45.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) o55.5 Receiving Yards
56.54 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
-20.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) o55.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

56.54 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
-20.87% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus wideouts last year, conceding 8.62 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.. Last year, the poor Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing WRs: a whopping 0.00 YAC.

o52.5 -130
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.56% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Last year, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed a monstrous 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-largest rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

o1.5 -220
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
5.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
5.83% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. Chase Brown checks in as one of the top pass-game running backs last year, averaging an exceptional 3.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (90.3%) to running backs last year (90.3%).

o3.5 -101
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made
7.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
5.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
5.35% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.5% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to notch 11.2 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.. Ja'Marr Chase comes in as one of the leading WRs in the game last year, averaging an impressive 7.0 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.. The Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the NFL last year in defending pass-catchers.

o6.5 -140
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.75% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.75% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Chris Godwin Jr. has run a route on 82.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.. Our trusted projections expect Chris Godwin Jr. to accrue 7.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among WRs.

o4.5 +118
BetRivers logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts
2.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-10.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

2.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-10.9% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The Tampa Bay defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.

o2.5 -130
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts
14.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-15.74% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-15.74% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).

o14.5 -118
BetRivers logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts
29.68 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
15.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

29.68 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
15.47% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 124.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.0 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.

u31.5 -109
BetRivers logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts
35.84 OVER PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
5.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.84 OVER PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
5.32% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.5.

o34.5 -113
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o24.5 Passing Completions
27.06 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
17.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o24.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

27.06 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
17.7% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.5. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. The Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the NFL last year in defending pass-catchers.

o24.5 -109
BetRivers logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions
20.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
8.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
8.58% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 124.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.0 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u21.5 -133
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.7 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.7 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.11% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. The Bengals pass defense has been torched for the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (84.2%) to RBs last year (84.2%).. Last year, the feeble Bengals defense has allowed a whopping 0.41 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the 2nd-biggest rate in football.

+115
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.8 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.8 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.44% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (64.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Chase Brown places in the 94th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 22.5 mark last year.. Chase Brown grades out in the 98th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs last year, averaging an exceptional 0.26 per game.

-120
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Chris Godwin Jr. logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Godwin Jr. (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.85% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Chris Godwin Jr. has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.2% last year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.. Chris Godwin Jr. ranks in the 76th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a staggering 40.0 mark last year.

+230
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.4% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).

+190
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.56 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.56 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.24% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (64.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. With a high 26.2% Red Zone Target Share (96th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.. In regards to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 101.0 per game.. Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the 98th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 74.7 figure last year.

-105
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.15% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (64.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a colossal 34.0 air yards per game last year: 83rd percentile among TEs.. Last year, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed a monstrous 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-largest rate in football.. The Buccaneers defense has allowed the 2nd-most touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.71 per game last year.

+420
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.18 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-15.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.18 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-15.33% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. When it comes to air yards, Cade Otton ranks in the towering 77th percentile among tight ends last year, accruing a colossal 24.0 per game.. Cade Otton ranks in the 78th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 29.0 mark last year.. The Bengals defense has surrendered the most touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.94 per game last year.

+350
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (64.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.5. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Joe Burrow has been among the top touchdown throwers in the league last year, averaging a remarkable 1.70 per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

+750
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.04 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.04 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. With zero red zone carries last year, Baker Mayfield's one-dimensionality makes him a no threat as a ball-carrier near the goal line.. Last year, the feeble Bengals defense has yielded a monstrous 1.88 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 4th-worst rate in football.

+600
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.47 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.47 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 124.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.0 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. Cincinnati's defense grades out as the 10th-best in football last year when it comes to inducing interceptions, accumulating 0.83 per game.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u0.5 +105
Caesars logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.73% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have just 124.4 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

u0.5 -145
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