Commanders vs Cowboys Picks & Props
WAS vs DAL Picks
NFL PicksJayden Daniels threw for 275 yards in his one full game vs. the Cowboys. I like Washington's WR corps, and Daniels is healthy right now. Dallas's defense still sucks, and I'm expecting one of Daniels' trademark bombs this week.
Washington's defense was terrible last season and it didn't upgrade its roster much this offseason. Williams cleared this number in nine of his 16 games last season, including a 116-yard game vs. Washington in Week 7.
Ferguson scored three touchdowns in two meetings vs Washington last season, and this matchup looks like another strong opportunity at current prices. The Commanders just surrendered 77 yards and two scores to Dallas Goedert and are coming off a season where they allowed the second-most TDs to the tight end position. Dallas averaged 29.9 points at home last year and should come out firing in its home opener.
So much for an improved Cowboys defense. In Week 1, they allowed 28 points and nine third-down conversions on 11 attempts against the Giants. This matchup produced 66 and 53 points in two meetings last season and they look primed to trade punches again. Dallas is 7-0 to the Over in its last seven, Washington is 5-0 in its last five, and the Cowboys averaged 29.9 points at home last season. No need to overthink it.
This TD is popping on the projections at its 3.65x price, with a fair price of 3.2x. It's also the No. 5 TD on the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index (68). The Commanders just gave up a monster line to another TE last week in Dallas Goedert, who went for 4-77-2. His TD was the highest-value play on the TD Value Index last week. Ferguson saw just two targets on SNF but still played 75% of the snaps, which ranked behind only CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. If Ferguson finds paydirt in Week 2, the Commanders are officially TE funnels.
To steal a line from Eminem, “MFers act like they forgot about Jay”. Jayden Daniels passed for two touchdowns against a much stronger Eagles secondary last week and faces a softer Dallas defense inside on the fast track at AT&T Stadium in Week 2. Daniels is being discounted after his injury-shortened 2025 but folks forget just how great a passer he is when healthy. Projections lean toward two TD throws and with such a tall total, game script says this is a shootout.
The Commanders overcame a no-show first half in Philadelphia and looked very strong offensively in the final 30 minutes, amassing almost 200 yards and 13 points against the Eagles’ elite stop unit. Washington was No. 6 in EPA per play in 2H offense last week. Defensively, the Commies dialed up the chaos. New defensive coordinator Daronte Jones blitzed at the fifth highest rate among all Week 1 stop units, boiling up the ninth best pressure rate and three sacks. That was against Philly’s protection, which rates out as a Top 5 o-line. The Cowboys offensive line is nowhere close to that and losing LG Tyler Smith showed up against New York last Sunday night.
The reason I gravitate to Lamb over Pickens in Week 2 is Washington’s new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones and his blitz-happy approach. He blitzed at the fifth highest rate in Week 1 (37.5% up from 23.5% in 2025). Dak Prescott is exceptional at recognizing and exposing the blitz, most often finding Lamb on quick reads for yards after the catch. He has six touchdowns in 11 career games versus Washington and multiple projections have Lambs’s TD probability as high as 60% on Sunday.
Rember in the offseason when Commanders new offensive coordinator David Blough said he wanted to get Terry McLaurin 10 targets a game? Well, Blough came up six short of that target talk in Week 1. McLaurin drew only four balls, catching two for just 14 yards versus Philadelphia. The Eagles presented a tougher challenge than this Cowboys secondary, which comes into Week 2 without starting safety Malik Hooker. McLaurin has gone for at least 50 yards in six straight matchups with Dallas and had 50+ in nine of 12 career meetings. Week 2 projections all sit north of 50 yards with most at 60+ and my number at 63 yards.
The Dallas Cowboys had their juice dried, with New York dominating the football and limiting the offense to seven possessions (just two in the second half). The Washington Commanders had only 99 yards at halftime versus Philadelphia’ top-tier defense but picked up the pace with almost 200 yards and 13 points in the final 30 minutes. The Cowboys are a much softer stop unit than Philly, especially with key starters ruled out for Week 2. The Commanders defense got a boost from the Eagles’ struggles adapting to a new offense but still gave up 6.0 yards per play. The advanced stats give a clear look at both offenses’ potential for points. Dallas ranked No. 5 in EPA per play/No. 8 in DVOA. Washington was 12th in EPA for Week 1 but jumps to No. 6 when you isolate the second half.
We didn’t see a good look at either offense in Week 1. Dallas didn’t touch the ball and Washington wasted an entire half before finding it form. Neither defense is drum tight and the fast track inside Jerry’s World will help pump out plenty of points in Week 2. I have two star receivers tied to this combo. CeeDee Lamb scored in Week 1 and is excellent at adjusting and exploiting holes in blitzing defenses. Terry McLaurin couldn’t get going against a solid Eagles secondary but shreds the Cowboys crappy coverage for at least 50 yards in Week 2.
WAS vs DAL Consensus Picks
WAS vs DAL Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
WAS
+3.5 spread
3.95
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-1.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
50.5 Total
53.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.2
DIFFERENCE
15.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Daniels
(QB)
o225.5 Passing Yards
259.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+34.1
DIFFERENCE
26.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Prescott
(QB)
o265.5 Passing Yards
278.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.4
DIFFERENCE
23.73%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Prescott
(QB)
o10.5 Rushing Yards
15.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.2
DIFFERENCE
26.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Croskey-Merritt
(RB)
o51.5 Rushing Yards
55.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
20.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
S. Diggs
(WR)
o47.5 Receiving Yards
67.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+19.7
DIFFERENCE
26.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Croskey-Merritt
(RB)
o2.5 Receiving Yards
8.45 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.9
DIFFERENCE
26.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Ferguson
(TE)
o27.5 Receiving Yards
38.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.1
DIFFERENCE
26.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Bates
(TE)
o13.5 Receiving Yards
20.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.2
DIFFERENCE
25.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
T. McLaurin
(WR)
o53.5 Receiving Yards
63.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.2
DIFFERENCE
25.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
S. Diggs
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions Made
5.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
15.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Ferguson
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions Made
4.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
13.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Bates
(TE)
o1.5 Receptions Made
2.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
10.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
T. McLaurin
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions Made
4.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
9.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Croskey-Merritt
(RB)
o0.5 Receptions Made
1.16 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-2.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Lamb
(WR)
o5.5 Receptions Made
5.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-15.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Williams
(RB)
u17.5 Rushing Attempts
15.95 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.5
DIFFERENCE
16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
D. Prescott
(QB)
o2.5 Rushing Attempts
3.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-11.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
D. Prescott
(QB)
u34.5 Passing Attempts
32.52 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
16.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Daniels
(QB)
o30.5 Passing Attempts
31.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
15.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Daniels
(QB)
o19.5 Passing Completions
22.44 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
19.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
D. Prescott
(QB)
o22.5 Passing Completions
23.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
2.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. McLaurin
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.43 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
20.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
S. Diggs
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.38 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Prescott
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Williams
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.81 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
15.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Ferguson
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.35 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
15.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Lamb
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Bates
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.14 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
9.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Daniels
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.35 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
7.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Croskey-Merritt
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.34 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-19.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
D. Prescott
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.41 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
14.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Daniels
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.39 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
11.95%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Commanders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 5-1 in Commanders last 6 vs. NFC East.
Under is 5-1-1 in Commanders last 7 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games as an underdog.