While we have reason to believe the Carolina Panthers can win outright on Sunday, the points are the better value here as the defense hasn't been as quietly impressive as the offense. But they at least get a friendlier matchup against an Arizona Cardinals offense that had managed just 46 combined points in the three weeks prior to last week's 30-point performance against the bottom-of-the-barrel Patriots. And it's not as if the Cardinals have been impressive on defense this year either, as they have ranked 15th in both pass and run defense DVOA this year and are 20th in takeaways. And Kyler Murray has seemingly become gun shy when it comes to using his legs, as he has had just one game above 21 rushing yards in the last seven.
James Conner remains as dependable as ever in the backfield, and the Arizona Cardinals veteran is set to thrive in an even bigger role on Sunday. Backup RB Trey Benson is currently banged up with an ankle and third-stringer Emari Demecado has been placed on IR. Benson saw a 13% snap share last week and 33% in Week 14. Conner has cleared this prop in back-to-back games, tallying 20+ touches in each contest. He also leads the league in missed tackles and ranks second in rushes of 10+ yards (31), trailing only Saquon Barkley. Facing a Carolina Panthers defense that allows a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry, Conner should easily surpass this O/U.