Baltimore Ravens

Picks

When it comes to picking a touchdown scorer against the Ravens we need to consider the defense that we’re facing. Nobody in the NFL has given up fewer rushing yards than the Baltimore Ravens and they’ve managed to do a good job of shutting down opposing running backs this year. The former Charger is slowly becoming part of this offense and has four receptions on six targets through the past two weeks. Given his 6”3 frame he should be a danger in the red zone and we’ve seen earlier in his career that he can be a major threat inside the 20. You’re getting big +400 odds on him scoring here, which feels like a good play.

Wilson cooked in his first two outings in the black and gold, averaging 271 passing yards per game with four total touchdowns. In his last six starts, he’s only gone Over 206.5 passing yards twice - he threw for 205 against Baltimore in Week 11. It’s gotten even worse as of late after rewinding the clock and dicing up the Bengals’ horrific defense to the tune of 414 passing yards on December 1, he’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in back-to-back games. In those two games against the Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles, he averaged a measly 143 passing yards. The massive drop-off coincides with the loss of star WR George Pickens. Wilson’s favorite moonball target has been out the last two games and will miss this matchup too. Without Pickens, it’s going to be hard to hit the Over with Pittsburgh’s motley crew of wide receivers.

Henry is still clearly an effective contact hitter, picking up chunk yards, but the home runs have dissipated in recent weeks. I don’t think he’ll be able to pop one out of M&T Bank Stadium against the Steelers like he’s Crush Davis. Pittsburgh is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL (94.4) and ranks No. 9 in EPA per rush on defense since Week 3. Both Watt (22) and Cameron Hayward (29) rank top 10 in run stops at their respective positions, too. While I think Henry will get close to this number, I don’t think he’s going to rip off a patented jaw-dropping explosive run to put him over the top against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Jackson sits fifth in the league in passing yards (3,580) and leads all QBs in rushing yards (743). The former Heisman winner is averaging well over this 274.5 combined passing and rushing yards line (308.8) and has cleared it in eight of his last 10 games - he’s topped it with passing yards alone in seven of them. While Pittsburgh’s defense is among the best in the NFL, it’s allowing the 11th-most passing yards per game (222.3). In its last three games, it allowed both Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts to top this number. He’s also the only player in the NFL with more than 16 big-time throws (22) and fewer than 10 turnover-worthy plays (8) - plus, he’s top 20 in missed tackles forced (36). So even with TJ Watt being healthy enough to play, the Louisville product should still be capable of putting up MVP numbers.

The Steelers is a nasty schedule spot in Week 16, on a short week for their second straight road game and fourth away game in the past five outings. Pittsburgh’s defense could be without TJ Watt and is gassed after playing 40 minutes in that squash against the Eagles, which wasn’t even as close as the one-sided score indicated. Baltimore one of best 1H teams in the league, winning 9 of 15 1Hs while the Steelers won’t have the energy for a second-half surge. 

This is a sweet schedule spot for the Ravens, and I don't think their rest advantage is fully accounted for in this spread. Baltimore had a bye in Week 14, and then the Ravens were able to coast to a 35-14 victory over the New York Giants with backups playing extra snaps on both sides of the ball in Week 15. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, had played four consecutive division games before their 27-13 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. The Pittsburgh offense has also ranked 28th in EPA per play and 30th in success rate without wide receiver George Pickens (hamstring) the past two weeks, and the defense could be without T.J. Watt (ankle) in Week 16.