In all but one of those seven matchups with the Chiefs, Allen has broken off a run 13 or more yards, including longs of 16, 18 and 22 yards. On the season, has posted runs of 13 or more yards six times – three of which have come in the last two games. His longest run props have bounced between 10.5 and 12.5 yards this season, with Allen going Over those numbers in just four of his 10 outings. But we’ve seen in past showdowns with the Chiefs (topping 12.5 yards in six of seven games), he’ll be prompted to tuck and run a lot against an aggressive attack which blitzes at a high clip and owns one of the best pressure rates per dropback in the NFL.
We’ve seen Patrick Mahomes and the passing offense start to perk up, especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins at receiver. Buffalo’s defense, while ranked among the Top 10 in many advanced metrics, has been a little too “bend but don’t break” for my liking. The Bills have given up 360 or more yards in three of those past five wins, including 361 yards to the Colts and 373 to the Dolphins in the two most recent outings. Buffalo ranks 20th in opponent success rate per play during that streak and is also 20th in EPA allowed per dropback in those five showings. Kansas City’s defense is much stronger with Steve Spagnuolo’s stop unit sitting No. 4 in Defensive DVOA. His aggressive schemes take on a Bills attack potentially missing pieces for this massive Week 11 meeting.