Chicago Bears

NFL Player Props

The Bears are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.9% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week. The projections expect Cole Kmet to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing offense in this contest (10.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (20.6% in games he has played). When talking about pass protection (and the effect it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 9th-worst in the league last year.

The 2nd-fewest plays in football have been run by the Titans last year (a measly 54.5 per game on average). As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Titans grades out as the 8th-worst in the league last year. With a weak 58.9% Adjusted Completion% (23rd percentile) last year, Calvin Ridley ranks among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among wideouts.

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 63.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 131.7 total plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense last year: 3rd-most in football. With an excellent 3.7 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) last year, Tony Pollard ranks among the best pass-game RBs in the league.

The predictive model expects the Bears to run the most total plays on the slate this week with 67.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. D'Andre Swift has run a route on 47.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, placing him in the 84th percentile among RBs. The predictive model expects D'Andre Swift to garner 2.9 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile among RBs. D'Andre Swift has been one of the leading RB receiving threats last year, averaging an outstanding 2.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 76th percentile. The Titans safeties project as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL last year in defending pass-catchers.

The predictive model expects the Bears to run the most total plays on the slate this week with 67.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. In this week's game, D.J. Moore is predicted by the projection model to place in the 88th percentile among WRs with 7.6 targets. D.J. Moore is positioned as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL last year, averaging a terrific 5.7 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile. With a remarkable 73.2% Adjusted Catch% (90th percentile) last year, D.J. Moore has been among the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to wideouts. The Titans pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.7%) vs. WRs last year (71.7%).

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 63.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 131.7 total plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense last year: 3rd-most in football. In this week's game, Chigoziem Okonkwo is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 79th percentile among tight ends with 4.0 targets.