That leads to a coin toss between Chase Brown and Ja’Marr Chase, but it’s the wideout who seems most likely. He is averaging over one touchdown per game this season, is tied for the league's most touchdowns with 15, and has scored eight times in the past five weeks. Not only that but he scored when these teams met in Week Seven. Chase is on a heater right now, and the Bengals are playing great football. There’s a very high chance he scores first.
Cleveland ranks 31st in DVOA and EPA per play, and while the Brownies have teeth on defense, there hasn’t been a stop unit to truly cool the Bengals this season. Cincy is fifth in points per game (28.5), EPA per play and eighth in yards per play (5.8). The Bengals also sport a middling 17th rank in DVOA. Defense has been a clear weakness for Cincinnati, but I’m not anticipating the Dorian Thompson-Robinson led Browns to fully capitalize on Sunday. This is a lost season for Cleveland, and the Browns have a dreadful 4-10 record against the spread and have covered the number just a single time through their past six games. The Browns also have just a single win on the highway all season, and that was all the way back in Week 2 against the equally flawed Jacksonville Jaguars.