Green Bay Packers

Picks

Baltimore will start Tyler Huntley on Saturday night. Expect the Ravens to take pressure off their backup passer by relying on Pro Bowl RB Derrick Henry. Henry has logged at least 18 carries in eight of his last 10 games. That includes Huntley's previous start this season when Henry rushed 21 times for 71 yards versus the Bears in Week 8. The 247-pound bruiser thrives in cold weather games and has churned out more than 90 yards in his last three contests. He should get plenty of work against a Packers defense that has allowed 29.8 rush attempts per game over the last four weeks.

The line moved from Baltimore +2.5 to +4.5 after Lamar Jackson was designated as doubtful. That's puzzling since it already seemed highly unlikely he would play and the Packers now have less motivation after clinching a playoff spot due to a Lions loss on Christmas Day. Keep in mind that Jackson has been less than full strength due to multiple injuries and backup Tyler Huntley is experienced and played well when he started against Chicago earlier this year. Huntley won't be asked to do too much since the Ravens will lean on Pro Bowl RB Derrick Henry and their improved D (fifth in the league in defensive success rate since Wk 6) to keep things close. 

Even if Malik Willis starts, this is still a strong look at the number, but at this price, with Jordan Love, it becomes an A-plus. Doubs cashed a +220 ticket last week against Chicago, scoring on a 33-yard strike from Willis. He led Green Bay in production in that game and remains a central piece of the offense. Doubs did leave late with a wrist issue, but it appears to be a non-factor for Week 17, as he was absent from the injury report early in the week. Green Bay should be able to move the ball against this defense regardless of which quarterback is under center. With Josh Jacobs banged up, the Packers leaned pass-heavy in the red zone last week, and that same approach could carry over again. The role and usage make sense at this number. With Love, this is playable down to +190, and with Willis, I’m comfortable backing it into the +220 to +230 range.

Should Lamat Jackson sit out Week 17, Baltimore still has a serviceable second stringer in Tyler “Snoop” Huntley but more importantly has Derrick Henry. Throughout his career, the bruising running back does his best work in December and is once again on a tear this month, rushing for 94, 100, and 128 yards in the past three games. Henry smashes through a Packers run stop that has come undone, allowing 110-plus rushing yards in three of its last four and allowing a seventh highest success rate per carry since Week 12. Baltimore can dominate time and possession, taking the heavy work off whichever QB is under center, while boosting one of the better defenses in the second half of 2025. The Ravens stop unit stumbled out of the blocks but is a Top 7 defense since Week 9.

Both teams could be missing their franchise QBs with Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love exiting in Week 16 with injuries. Even if they suit up, they'll be less than full strength and face solid stop units. The Ravens struggled on defense at the start of the season due to the absence of LB Roquan Smith and multiple injuries on the line and in the secondary. However, they've gotten many of those injured players back and rank fifth in the league in defense success rate since Week 6. Meanwhile, the Packers are seventh in the league in defensive rush success rate and fifth in yards allowed per carry (4.0) which will help them slow down a Baltimore attack that relies heavily on Derrick Henry. 

Let’s not get cute. Derrick Henry Over 74.5 yards rushing. It’s December and the only guy who might deliver more than Santa this month is Derrick Henry. For his career, the bruising back finds another gear in December and is doing so once again in 2025. So far this month he’s rushed for 94, 100 and 128 yards. Whether Lamar is in or not, Henry is going to get the touches against a Packers defense that has been pushed around on the ground in the second half of the sked. Sixth highest success rate allowed per run since Week 11 and has given up 119 rushing yards or more in three of the last four outings, including 150 from the Bears last weekend.