Green Bay Packers

Picks

Christian Watson has been one of the best touchdown producers in football over the last four weeks with five total TDs, and the Denver matchup is keeping this number above two dollars in Week 15. The Green Bay receiver room isn’t the mess it used to be. Watson and Romeo Doubs are handling most of the routes, with Jayden Reed rotating in for 3-WR sets. If Watson ever opened in the +130 to +140 range in a good matchup, it wouldn’t surprise me, so this could be the best price we see for a while. He’s already cashed at +175 and +200 in consecutive weeks.

The Broncos' 11-2 SU mark is built on owning the trenches with the offensive and defensive lines among the best in the business. Denver is one of only three teams that rank Top 10 in every OL/DL win rate metric at ESPN (pass rush, pass block, run stop, run block). Keeping the Packers’ pass rush at bay and slamming the door on Green Bay’s run-heavy sets is the key to keeping the Broncos’ 10-game winning streak alive – or at least covering as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 15.

The Broncos are tied for the best record in the NFL at 11-2 and they shouldn't be underdogs against anybody at home, especially since they're 6-0 with a scoring margin of +10.0 ppg at Mile High Stadium, where they benefit from a significant home-field advantage due to elevation. The Broncos have an elite stop unit that ranks second in the league in defensive success rate. They've piled up a league-high 55 sacks, and that pressure will make things tough for Packers quarterback Jordan Love. Take the Broncos at plus money in a game where they should be slight favorites or a pick'em at worst. 

The Pack rank higher in DVOA while pacing the NFL in EPA per play, and I particularly value the gap in quarterback play. Green Bay QB Jordan Love paced the league in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for the second most air yards during his recent three-game NFC North sweep, and his receiving tree is filling out with wideout Christian Watson reemerging as a big-play threat and playmaker Jayden Reed (foot/shoulder) back in action in Week 14. Denver QB Bo Nix is going to have his hands full Sunday afternoon. Green Bay ranks ninth in defensive DVOA while allowing the fifth-fewest yards per play, and Nix checks in 18th in EPA+CPOE composite, and his 6.3 yards per attempt and 63.2 completion percentage are both also below-average marks. The Packers generate pressure at a respectable 12th-highest clip despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the league, too.