Houston Texans

Picks

Kansas City has looked for ways to involve rookie receiver Xavier Worthy more of late, and he’s led all Chiefs receivers in offensive snaps in each of the past two games. Worthy has also rushed 15 times for 84 yards (5.6 per tote) and three scores this season. So, the real risk is just whether or not he’s going to have a rushing opportunity or not. I’m expecting he will because it’s been working for the Chiefs. Plus, Worthy has received a handoff in 10 of 14 games, including four of the past five, and he had three carries for 30 yards and a score last week against the Cleveland Browns.

Houston has played zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate (72.6%) in the NFL, and Kansas City wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has garnered a team-high 21.6% target rate against zone looks with 34 receptions for 390 yards. Hopkins has caught four or more passes in six of the past seven games while piling up 33 receptions on 48 targets for an average of 4.7 receptions and 6.9 targets per game. I’m also expecting the Chiefs to have to stay active in the passing game because I’m anticipating the Texans having success on offense and keeping this game competitive.

Mixon sits 10^th in total rushing attempts despite playing in only 11 games due to injury. He’s made the most of those carries, running for 910 yards – including seven games of 100-plus gains on the ground. Kansas City’s run defense has gotten pushed around in recent weeks, allowing 538 total rushing yards over the past five games, with foes picking up 4.4 yards per carry. Last week, Cleveland carried the ball just 21 times for 139 yards rushing. Mixon’s models range from 69 yards to a ceiling of 87 yards against the Chiefs, with my number coming out to 78 yards on the ground from the veteran RB. That’s well beyond his rushing yard total for Week 16, with the Over/Under at 60.5 yards.

Mixon has topped 100 rushing yards in seven of 11 games this season, and this is also his lowest total in this market since closing at 50.5 in Week 6 against the New England Patriots. The reason we’ve landed this low total is because Kansas City has allowed the fewest rushing yards and second-lowest yards per carry (3.66) to opposing running backs this season. Still, the Chiefs have been gashed for the third-highest yards per carry (5.32) the past three weeks, and Texans QB C.J. Stroud and the passing attack will keep the KC defense honest and unable to focus solely on slowing down Mixon.

With Wentz under center, the Chiefs finally have something to rally around after being stuck on cruise control for the better part of the schedule. Let’s not dismiss this defense, which has fallen off in recent weeks but is still among the most disruptive in the land. Steve Spagnuolo blitzes the balls of rival QBs and owns the sixth highest pressure rate per dropback in the land. Kansas City may have only 32 sacks on the season but ranks Top 5 in both hurries and QB hits. That aggressive scheme will overwhelm a Houston offensive line that has struggled with injuries and inconsistency the past two seasons. The Texans are 25th in pass block win rate, allowing second-year passer C.J. Stroud to a feel the third highest rate of pressure which has boiled down to a league-high 58 hurries, 39 hits, 45 sacks, and a partridge in a pear tree.