Jacksonville Jaguars
Picks

1st in AFC South (10 - 4 - 0)

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JACJacksonville

at

Sun, Dec 21 16:05 ET

JAC @ DEN Picks

Total

o45.5 (-110)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

The Over is 5-2 in Jacksonville's last seven, and has hit in Denver's last three. And I love it to hit again here.

Jacksonville hasn’t been held under 25 points since the bye week, and Denver’s run defense has been leaky the past few weeks, and that will let the Jaguars move the ball. Add in Little’s leg and they should score anytime they get near midfield.

Nix won’t push the ball downfield like some teams do against the Jaguars, but Denver’s quick-pass scheme will help him keep drives alive and negate some of the pass rush ability of the Jaguars. He’ll also put together enough drives against a defense that struggles to get stops on third and five or less.

Spread

JAC +3.0 (-110)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

As long as I'm getting a flat three points, I'm taking the Jaguars to cover.

The Jags have covered in five straight, beating the spread by an average of 16.6 points in that span. Trevor Lawrence is red-hot, throwing for nearly 1800 yards and 18 touchdowns in the seven games since the bye week.

The Broncos are showing weaknesses on defense of late, especially against the run. And their comeback over the Packers this weekend was aided by a rash of injuries to their opponent. Bo Nix can't consistently throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield, which negates Jacksonville's biggest issue on defense.

The oddsmakers have been underestimating the Jaguars for some time now, and with Cam Little's "in the stadium" range and the thin Mile High air, I'll back the visitors to keep this one very close in what should be a tight affair.

Passing Completions

Trevor Lawrence u19.5 Passing Completions (-114)

Projection 17.64 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

Trevor Lawrence has been one of the least accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a 59.9% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 13th percentile.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Broncos defense this year (65.4% Adjusted Completion%).

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Trevor Lawrence u226.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Projection 200.15 (Under)

Best Odds

u226.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

u223.5 -113

u220.5 -110

u226.5 -114

u224.5 -115

Trevor Lawrence has been one of the least accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a 59.9% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 13th percentile.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Broncos defense this year (65.4% Adjusted Completion%).. This year, the fierce Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to the opposing side: a meager 7.1 yards.

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Bo Nix o229.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Projection 241.26 (Over)

Best Odds

o229.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o235.5 -111

o237.5 -110

o229.5 -114

o232.5 -115

The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the projection model to run 68.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.. The Denver Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.. The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in football (39.9 per game) this year.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Broncos ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

-114 at FanDuel

Interceptions Thrown

Trevor Lawrence u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+115)

Projection 0.48 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

Receiving Yards

Brenton Strange o31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 36.66 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Denver Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.. Brenton Strange's 75.1% Route Participation% this season indicates a remarkable gain in his passing offense volume over last season's 45.2% rate.

Receiving Yards

Evan Engram o23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 26.16 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the projection model to run 68.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.. The Denver Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.. The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in football (39.9 per game) this year.. In this game, Evan Engram is projected by the projection model to land in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.8 targets.

Receiving Yards

Jakobi Meyers u55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 53.4 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

After accruing 82.0 air yards per game last season, Jakobi Meyers has seen a big decline this season, currently boasting 63.0 per game.. Jakobi Meyers's 53.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 61.2.. Jakobi Meyers has posted a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (47.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).. Jakobi Meyers's skills in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this year, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.13 mark last year.. This year, the stout Broncos defense has allowed a feeble 62.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.

Receiving Yards

Courtland Sutton o54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 57.53 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the projection model to run 68.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.. The Denver Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.. The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in football (39.9 per game) this year.. The predictive model expects Courtland Sutton to total 7.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Rushing Yards

Bo Nix o16.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 20.8 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

With a 3-point advantage, the Broncos are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the projection model to run 68.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.. The Denver Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

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62% picking Denver

38% 38%

62% 62%

Total Picks JAC 131, DEN 215

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JAC

DEN

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Top User Picks

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'lsbellmom' is picking Denver to cover (-3.0)

lsbellmom is #1 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +7700 units on the season.

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JAC

DEN

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'lsbellmom' picks Jacksonville vs Denver to go Under (45.5)

lsbellmom is #1 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +7700 units on the season.

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'Dalmeetz48' picks Jacksonville vs Denver to go Under (43.5)

Dalmeetz48 is #2 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (12-2-0) and +6650 units on the season.

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'Dalmeetz48' is picking Denver to cover (-2.5)

Dalmeetz48 is #2 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (12-2-0) and +6650 units on the season.

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JAC

DEN

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'rollonotes' picks Jacksonville vs Denver to go Under (45.5)

rollonotes is #2 on picking games that Jacksonville is in with a record of (9-4-1) and +6150 units on the season.

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'rollonotes' is picking Denver to cover (-3.0)

rollonotes is #2 on picking games that Jacksonville is in with a record of (9-4-1) and +6150 units on the season.

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JAC

DEN

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'Ohyarain' is picking Jacksonville to cover (+3.0)

Ohyarain is #3 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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JAC

DEN

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'Ohyarain' picks Jacksonville vs Denver to go Over (45.5)

Ohyarain is #3 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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'bluesand9000' picks Jacksonville vs Denver to go Under (43.5)

bluesand9000 is #5 on picking games that Jacksonville is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +5400 units on the season.

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'bluesand9000' is picking Denver to cover (-2.5)

bluesand9000 is #5 on picking games that Jacksonville is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +5400 units on the season.

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JAC

DEN

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'plasma9' is picking Denver to cover (-3.0)

plasma9 is #6 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +5450 units on the season.

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JAC

DEN

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'manomanomano551' is picking Jacksonville to cover (+2.5)

manomanomano551 is #7 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (12-2-0) and +5100 units on the season.

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JAC

DEN

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'manomanomano551' picks Jacksonville vs Denver to go Over (43.5)

manomanomano551 is #7 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (12-2-0) and +5100 units on the season.

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'wu1978' is picking Denver to cover (-2.5)

wu1978 is #8 on picking games that Jacksonville is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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JAC

DEN

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'wu1978' picks Jacksonville vs Denver to go Over (43.5)

wu1978 is #8 on picking games that Jacksonville is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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