Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves to bring pressure with the blitz while padding that chaos up front with man-to-man schemes in the backfield. Allen rates out Top 5 among all qualified QBs versus the blitz at PFF and boasts the third best passer rating versus man coverage. Unlike past years, when the Bills’ passing playbook depended on deep downfield looks, this current receiving corps has plenty of big capable pass catchers for quick short shots that then grind out yards after the catch (third highest YAC/completion). It’s an ideal foil to the Chiefs’ aggressiveness.
Kansas City has been pumping out the Under results in recent weeks, boasting a 1-6 Over/Under count in their last seven overall. In fact, the Under is 3-6 in the Chiefs’ last nine home postseason games. The Bills took a ground-centric approach against Baltimore in the Divisional Round, handing off more than 30 times to grind out possession and control the tempo. The Bills did the same in their Week 11 win over Kansas City. That game finished with 51 collective points and went Over a closing total of 47.5 O/U. Look-ahead lines have this game with a total of 47.5, and openers are hitting the board at 48.5 points. I'm grabbing the Under now, on the other side of the key number of 47 O/U.