Los Angeles Chargers Picks
4th in AFC West
(0 - 7 - 0)
Next Game
Sun, Nov 8
16:05 ET
HOU @ LAC Picks
NFL Picks
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
David Montgomery is not ready to return, and even if he were, this would still likely be Woody Marks' backfield in an indoor matchup against one of the best running back matchups on paper. The Texans offense is healthy and loaded coming out of the bye and gets to face a team that has failed to cover a single game this season. They're also one of just five teams allowing more than 1.00 running back TD per game. The last time we saw Marks, he played 89% of the snaps and handled 19 carries. He has very little competition for touches and should get the bulk of the red-zone work against a defense dealing with multiple injuries in the secondary. I'd play Marks to 53% this week.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (246.0 per game) versus the Texans defense this year.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-fewest yards in football (just 212.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of CBs has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 42.4% run rate.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this contest, Justin Herbert is projected by the projections to notch the 7th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 4.8. . Justin Herbert isn't afraid to run the ball, accounting for 17.0% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among quarterbacks.. With an impressive rate of 3.04 yards-after-contact (100th percentile), Justin Herbert stands among the leading running QBs in football this year.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. This year, the poor Texans defense has surrendered a massive 174.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 3rd-worst in the league.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.6% pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. In this contest, Dalton Schultz is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.4 targets.. Dalton Schultz's 44.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season conveys a meaningful improvement in his receiving talent over last season's 35.0 rate.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, Nico Collins has significantly declined this year, currently sitting at 89.0 per game.. Nico Collins's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 63.3.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.4% pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. The Chargers safeties rank as the 5th-worst safety corps in the league this year when it comes to pass rush.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusHOU @ LAC · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
40.5 Total
44.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.3
DIFFERENCE
20.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o206.5 Passing Yards
215.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.1
DIFFERENCE
24.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
C. Stroud
(QB)
u248.5 Passing Yards
233.11 UNDER
PROJECTION
-15.4
DIFFERENCE
23.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
C. Stroud
(QB)
o6.5 Rushing Yards
14.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.8
DIFFERENCE
26.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
W. Marks
(RB)
o60.5 Rushing Yards
72.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.1
DIFFERENCE
25.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o18.5 Rushing Yards
26.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.2
DIFFERENCE
25.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
O. Hampton
(RB)
o6.5 Receiving Yards
9.37 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
24.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
L. McConkey
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
58.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.2
DIFFERENCE
24.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Schultz
(TE)
o34.5 Receiving Yards
41.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.0
DIFFERENCE
24.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
N. Collins
(WR)
u64.5 Receiving Yards
59.82 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.7
DIFFERENCE
23.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
W. Marks
(RB)
o13.5 Receiving Yards
16.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
20.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
N. Collins
(WR)
u5.5 Receptions Made
4.38 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
14.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Schultz
(TE)
o4.5 Receptions Made
4.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
13.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
L. McConkey
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions Made
4.30 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
11.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
O. Gadsden
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.65 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
W. Marks
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.09 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
O. Hampton
(RB)
u1.5 Receptions Made
1.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-0.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
W. Marks
(RB)
o16.5 Rushing Attempts
17.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
4.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o4.5 Rushing Attempts
4.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-20.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Herbert
(QB)
u32.5 Passing Attempts
30.50 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
12.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
C. Stroud
(QB)
u33.5 Passing Attempts
33.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o18.5 Passing Completions
19.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
14.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
C. Stroud
(QB)
u21.5 Passing Completions
20.90 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
8.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
W. Marks
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.63 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
O. Gadsden
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
15.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
L. McConkey
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
N. Collins
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
9.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Herbert
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-2.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Schultz
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-3.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
O. Hampton
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-12.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Stroud
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.11 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-28.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Herbert
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
22.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
C. Stroud
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.98%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
TOTAL
Over
40.5 Total
44.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.3
DIFFERENCE
20.33%
EV
PASSING YARDS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o206.5 Passing Yards
215.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.1
DIFFERENCE
24.82%
EV
PASSING YARDS
C. Stroud
(QB)
u248.5 Passing Yards
233.11 UNDER
PROJECTION
-15.4
DIFFERENCE
23.19%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
C. Stroud
(QB)
o6.5 Rushing Yards
14.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.8
DIFFERENCE
26.18%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
W. Marks
(RB)
o60.5 Rushing Yards
72.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.1
DIFFERENCE
25.08%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o18.5 Rushing Yards
26.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.2
DIFFERENCE
25.06%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
O. Hampton
(RB)
o6.5 Receiving Yards
9.37 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
24.98%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
L. McConkey
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
58.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.2
DIFFERENCE
24.9%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Schultz
(TE)
o34.5 Receiving Yards
41.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.0
DIFFERENCE
24.4%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
N. Collins
(WR)
u64.5 Receiving Yards
59.82 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.7
DIFFERENCE
23.59%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
W. Marks
(RB)
o13.5 Receiving Yards
16.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
20.51%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
N. Collins
(WR)
u5.5 Receptions Made
4.38 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
14.21%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Schultz
(TE)
o4.5 Receptions Made
4.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
13.44%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
L. McConkey
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions Made
4.30 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
11.12%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
O. Gadsden
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.65 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.58%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
W. Marks
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.09 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.32%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
O. Hampton
(RB)
u1.5 Receptions Made
1.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-0.46%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
W. Marks
(RB)
o16.5 Rushing Attempts
17.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
4.67%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o4.5 Rushing Attempts
4.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-20.64%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Herbert
(QB)
u32.5 Passing Attempts
30.50 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
12.69%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
C. Stroud
(QB)
u33.5 Passing Attempts
33.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.67%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o18.5 Passing Completions
19.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
14.16%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
C. Stroud
(QB)
u21.5 Passing Completions
20.90 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
8.68%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
W. Marks
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.63 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.23%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
O. Gadsden
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
15.94%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
L. McConkey
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.46%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
N. Collins
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
9.96%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Herbert
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-2.68%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Schultz
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-3.75%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
O. Hampton
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-12.38%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Stroud
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.11 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-28.07%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Herbert
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
22.42%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
C. Stroud
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.98%
EV
HOU @ LAC · Trends
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