Los Angeles Chargers

4th in AFC West (0 - 7 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Nov 8 16:05 ET

HOU @ LAC Picks

NFL Picks
Anytime Touchdown
Woody Marks logo Woody Marks Score a Touchdown (Yes: +133)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 hours ago
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

David Montgomery is not ready to return, and even if he were, this would still likely be Woody Marks' backfield in an indoor matchup against one of the best running back matchups on paper. The Texans offense is healthy and loaded coming out of the bye and gets to face a team that has failed to cover a single game this season. They're also one of just five teams allowing more than 1.00 running back TD per game. The last time we saw Marks, he played 89% of the snaps and handled 19 carries. He has very little competition for touches and should get the bulk of the red-zone work against a defense dealing with multiple injuries in the secondary. I'd play Marks to 53% this week.

Passing Yards
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert o206.5 Passing Yards (-115) Projection 215.56 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (246.0 per game) versus the Texans defense this year.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
Passing Yards
C.J. Stroud logo
C.J. Stroud u248.5 Passing Yards (-115) Projection 233.11 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-fewest yards in football (just 212.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of CBs has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.
Rushing Yards
C.J. Stroud logo
C.J. Stroud o6.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Projection 14.34 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Rushing Yards
Woody Marks logo
Woody Marks o60.5 Rushing Yards (-114) Projection 72.62 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 31 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Rushing Yards
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert o18.5 Rushing Yards (-118) Projection 26.73 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 20 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 42.4% run rate.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this contest, Justin Herbert is projected by the projections to notch the 7th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 4.8. . Justin Herbert isn't afraid to run the ball, accounting for 17.0% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among quarterbacks.. With an impressive rate of 3.04 yards-after-contact (100th percentile), Justin Herbert stands among the leading running QBs in football this year.
Receiving Yards
Omarion Hampton logo
Omarion Hampton o6.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Projection 9.37 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
Receiving Yards
Ladd McConkey logo
Ladd McConkey o49.5 Receiving Yards (-105) Projection 58.69 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. This year, the poor Texans defense has surrendered a massive 174.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 3rd-worst in the league.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
Receiving Yards
Dalton Schultz logo
Dalton Schultz o34.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Projection 41.48 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.6% pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. In this contest, Dalton Schultz is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.4 targets.. Dalton Schultz's 44.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season conveys a meaningful improvement in his receiving talent over last season's 35.0 rate.
Receiving Yards
Nico Collins logo
Nico Collins u64.5 Receiving Yards (+100) Projection 59.82 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, Nico Collins has significantly declined this year, currently sitting at 89.0 per game.. Nico Collins's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 63.3.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Receiving Yards
Woody Marks logo
Woody Marks o13.5 Receiving Yards (-114) Projection 16.18 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.4% pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. The Chargers safeties rank as the 5th-worst safety corps in the league this year when it comes to pass rush.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

61% picking Houston

61%
39%

Total Picks HOU 313, LAC 200

Spread
HOU
LAC
Total

55% picking Houston vs L.A. Chargers to go Under

45%
55%

Total PicksHOU 138, LAC 169

Total
Over
Under

HOU @ LAC · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
LAC +5.5 spread
1.31 PROJECTION
-4.2 DIFFERENCE
19.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
LAC +5.5 spread

PROJECTION

1.31 PROJECTION
-4.2 DIFFERENCE
19.47% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+4.5 -108
FanDuel logo
TOTAL
Houston Texans image thumbnail Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
Over 40.5 Total
44.81 OVER PROJECTION
+4.3 DIFFERENCE
20.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Houston Texans image thumbnail Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
Over 40.5 Total

PROJECTION

44.81 OVER PROJECTION
+4.3 DIFFERENCE
20.33% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o40.5 -110
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o206.5 Passing Yards
215.56 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
24.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o206.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

215.56 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
24.82% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (246.0 per game) versus the Texans defense this year.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o203.5 -113
DraftKings logo
PASSING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u248.5 Passing Yards
233.11 UNDER PROJECTION
-15.4 DIFFERENCE
23.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u248.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

233.11 UNDER PROJECTION
-15.4 DIFFERENCE
23.19% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-fewest yards in football (just 212.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of CBs has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

u251.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards
14.34 OVER PROJECTION
+7.8 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

14.34 OVER PROJECTION
+7.8 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

o5.5 -185
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards
72.62 OVER PROJECTION
+12.1 DIFFERENCE
25.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

72.62 OVER PROJECTION
+12.1 DIFFERENCE
25.08% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

o58.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o18.5 Rushing Yards
26.73 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
25.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o18.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

26.73 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
25.06% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 42.4% run rate.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this contest, Justin Herbert is projected by the projections to notch the 7th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 4.8. . Justin Herbert isn't afraid to run the ball, accounting for 17.0% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among quarterbacks.. With an impressive rate of 3.04 yards-after-contact (100th percentile), Justin Herbert stands among the leading running QBs in football this year.

o18.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o6.5 Receiving Yards
9.37 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
24.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o6.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

9.37 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
24.98% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o6.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) o49.5 Receiving Yards
58.69 OVER PROJECTION
+9.2 DIFFERENCE
24.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) o49.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

58.69 OVER PROJECTION
+9.2 DIFFERENCE
24.9% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. This year, the poor Texans defense has surrendered a massive 174.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 3rd-worst in the league.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o41.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o34.5 Receiving Yards
41.48 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
24.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o34.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

41.48 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
24.4% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.6% pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. In this contest, Dalton Schultz is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.4 targets.. Dalton Schultz's 44.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season conveys a meaningful improvement in his receiving talent over last season's 35.0 rate.

o32.5 -125
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u64.5 Receiving Yards
59.82 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.7 DIFFERENCE
23.59% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u64.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

59.82 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.7 DIFFERENCE
23.59% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, Nico Collins has significantly declined this year, currently sitting at 89.0 per game.. Nico Collins's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 63.3.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

u68.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards
16.18 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
20.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

16.18 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
20.51% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.4% pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. The Chargers safeties rank as the 5th-worst safety corps in the league this year when it comes to pass rush.

o12.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made
4.38 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
14.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.38 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
14.21% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. Nico Collins's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 63.3.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of CBs has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

u5.5 -145
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.6% pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. In this contest, Dalton Schultz is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.4 targets.. Dalton Schultz checks in as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 4.7 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

o3.5 -132
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.30 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.30 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.12% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o3.5 -124
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Oronde Gadsden logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Gadsden (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Oronde Gadsden logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Gadsden (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.58% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o2.5 +150
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made
2.09 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.09 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.32% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. This year, the fierce Chargers defense has yielded a meager 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 6th-best rate in the league.

u2.5 -153
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made
1.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-0.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-0.46% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (57.4% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Chargers.. As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.

u1.5 -135
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o16.5 Rushing Attempts
17.88 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
4.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o16.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

17.88 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
4.67% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

o16.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts
4.86 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-20.64% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.86 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-20.64% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 42.4% run rate.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this contest, Justin Herbert is projected by the projections to notch the 7th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 4.8. . Justin Herbert isn't afraid to run the ball, accounting for 17.0% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among quarterbacks.

o4.5 -127
Caesars Odds logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts
30.50 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
12.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

30.50 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
12.69% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 55.4% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

u32.5 -114
DraftKings logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts
33.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-3.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-3.67% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.

u33.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions
19.98 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
14.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

19.98 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
14.16% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o18.5 +100
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions
20.90 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
8.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.90 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
8.68% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of CBs has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

u21.5 +103
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.63 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.23% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.63 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.23% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in the league against the Chargers defense this year (73.6% Adjusted Completion%).. The Chargers safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

+110
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Oronde Gadsden logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Gadsden (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Oronde Gadsden logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Gadsden (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.94% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Houston defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

+600
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.46% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Houston Texans defense has given up the 9th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 1.00 per game this year.. The Houston defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

+300
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.96% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. Nico Collins's 70.3% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a remarkable gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 59.1% mark.. With an impressive rate of 0.60 per game through the air (92nd percentile), Nico Collins ranks as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to wide receivers this year.

+155
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.68% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The rushing touchdown line reads "0" on Justin Herbert's player page this year.. The Houston defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

+600
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-3.75% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-3.75% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. Dalton Schultz has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.9% this year, which puts him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. In regards to air yards, Dalton Schultz grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a striking 43.0 per game.

+250
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-12.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-12.38% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. This year, the anemic Houston Texans defense has surrendered a monstrous 0.29 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing RBs: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.. The Houston defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

+250
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-28.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-28.07% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in the league against the Chargers defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).

+525
BetMGM logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.42% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (57.6% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Chargers.. As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.

u0.5 +137
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.98% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. C.J. Stroud has tallied a mere 0.19 interceptions per game this year, ranking in the 94th percentile when it comes to QBs.. Los Angeles's defense grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year as it relates to making interceptions, compiling 0.96 per game.

u0.5 -120
bet365 logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
LAC +5.5 spread
1.31 PROJECTION
-4.2 DIFFERENCE
19.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
LAC +5.5 spread

PROJECTION

1.31 PROJECTION
-4.2 DIFFERENCE
19.47% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+4.5 -108
FanDuel logo
TOTAL
Houston Texans image thumbnail Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
Over 40.5 Total
44.81 OVER PROJECTION
+4.3 DIFFERENCE
20.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Houston Texans image thumbnail Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
Over 40.5 Total

PROJECTION

44.81 OVER PROJECTION
+4.3 DIFFERENCE
20.33% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o40.5 -110
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o206.5 Passing Yards
215.56 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
24.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o206.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

215.56 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
24.82% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (246.0 per game) versus the Texans defense this year.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o203.5 -113
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PASSING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u248.5 Passing Yards
233.11 UNDER PROJECTION
-15.4 DIFFERENCE
23.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u248.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

233.11 UNDER PROJECTION
-15.4 DIFFERENCE
23.19% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-fewest yards in football (just 212.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of CBs has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

u251.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards
14.34 OVER PROJECTION
+7.8 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

14.34 OVER PROJECTION
+7.8 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

o5.5 -185
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards
72.62 OVER PROJECTION
+12.1 DIFFERENCE
25.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

72.62 OVER PROJECTION
+12.1 DIFFERENCE
25.08% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

o58.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o18.5 Rushing Yards
26.73 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
25.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o18.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

26.73 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
25.06% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 42.4% run rate.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this contest, Justin Herbert is projected by the projections to notch the 7th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 4.8. . Justin Herbert isn't afraid to run the ball, accounting for 17.0% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among quarterbacks.. With an impressive rate of 3.04 yards-after-contact (100th percentile), Justin Herbert stands among the leading running QBs in football this year.

o18.5 -118
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RECEIVING YARDS
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o6.5 Receiving Yards
9.37 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
24.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o6.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

9.37 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
24.98% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o6.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) o49.5 Receiving Yards
58.69 OVER PROJECTION
+9.2 DIFFERENCE
24.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) o49.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

58.69 OVER PROJECTION
+9.2 DIFFERENCE
24.9% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. This year, the poor Texans defense has surrendered a massive 174.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 3rd-worst in the league.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o41.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o34.5 Receiving Yards
41.48 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
24.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o34.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

41.48 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
24.4% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.6% pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. In this contest, Dalton Schultz is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.4 targets.. Dalton Schultz's 44.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season conveys a meaningful improvement in his receiving talent over last season's 35.0 rate.

o32.5 -125
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RECEIVING YARDS
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u64.5 Receiving Yards
59.82 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.7 DIFFERENCE
23.59% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u64.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

59.82 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.7 DIFFERENCE
23.59% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, Nico Collins has significantly declined this year, currently sitting at 89.0 per game.. Nico Collins's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 63.3.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

u68.5 -114
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RECEIVING YARDS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards
16.18 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
20.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

16.18 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
20.51% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.4% pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. The Chargers safeties rank as the 5th-worst safety corps in the league this year when it comes to pass rush.

o12.5 -115
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made
4.38 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
14.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.38 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
14.21% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. Nico Collins's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 63.3.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of CBs has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

u5.5 -145
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.6% pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. In this contest, Dalton Schultz is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.4 targets.. Dalton Schultz checks in as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 4.7 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

o3.5 -132
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.30 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.30 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.12% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o3.5 -124
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Oronde Gadsden logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Gadsden (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Oronde Gadsden logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Gadsden (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.58% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o2.5 +150
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made
2.09 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.09 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.32% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. This year, the fierce Chargers defense has yielded a meager 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 6th-best rate in the league.

u2.5 -153
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made
1.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-0.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-0.46% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (57.4% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Chargers.. As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.

u1.5 -135
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RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o16.5 Rushing Attempts
17.88 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
4.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o16.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

17.88 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
4.67% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

o16.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts
4.86 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-20.64% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.86 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-20.64% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 42.4% run rate.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this contest, Justin Herbert is projected by the projections to notch the 7th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 4.8. . Justin Herbert isn't afraid to run the ball, accounting for 17.0% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among quarterbacks.

o4.5 -127
Caesars Odds logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts
30.50 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
12.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

30.50 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
12.69% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 55.4% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

u32.5 -114
DraftKings logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts
33.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-3.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-3.67% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.

u33.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions
19.98 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
14.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

19.98 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
14.16% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Texans linebackers project as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

o18.5 +100
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions
20.90 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
8.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.90 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
8.68% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of CBs has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

u21.5 +103
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.63 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.23% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.63 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.23% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in the league against the Chargers defense this year (73.6% Adjusted Completion%).. The Chargers safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

+110
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Oronde Gadsden logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Gadsden (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Oronde Gadsden logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Gadsden (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.94% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Houston defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

+600
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.46% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The Houston Texans defense has given up the 9th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 1.00 per game this year.. The Houston defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

+300
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.96% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. Nico Collins's 70.3% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a remarkable gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 59.1% mark.. With an impressive rate of 0.60 per game through the air (92nd percentile), Nico Collins ranks as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to wide receivers this year.

+155
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.68% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. The rushing touchdown line reads "0" on Justin Herbert's player page this year.. The Houston defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

+600
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-3.75% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-3.75% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. Dalton Schultz has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.9% this year, which puts him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. In regards to air yards, Dalton Schultz grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a striking 43.0 per game.

+250
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-12.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-12.38% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.. This year, the anemic Houston Texans defense has surrendered a monstrous 0.29 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing RBs: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.. The Houston defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

+250
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-28.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-28.07% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may slide.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in the league against the Chargers defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).

+525
BetMGM logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.42% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (57.6% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Chargers.. As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.

u0.5 +137
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.98% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. C.J. Stroud has tallied a mere 0.19 interceptions per game this year, ranking in the 94th percentile when it comes to QBs.. Los Angeles's defense grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year as it relates to making interceptions, compiling 0.96 per game.

u0.5 -120
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Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'Covers0388' is picking Houston to cover (-4.5)

Covers0388 is #1 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (4-0-0) and +5500 units on the season.

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'ChiTownSteppers' picks Houston vs L.A. Chargers to go Under (41.5)

ChiTownSteppers is #10 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (4-2-0) and +4400 units on the season.

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'ChiTownSteppers' is picking Houston to cover (-4.5)

ChiTownSteppers is #10 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (4-2-0) and +4400 units on the season.

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HOU
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'fsudogfan85' is picking Houston to cover (-4.5)

fsudogfan85 is #10 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.

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'muna624' is picking Houston to cover (-4.5)

muna624 is #2 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (5-1-0) and +5450 units on the season.

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'BillyJack' is picking Houston to cover (-3.0)

BillyJack is #3 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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'BillyJack' picks Houston vs L.A. Chargers to go Under (42.5)

BillyJack is #3 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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'Geothrogrrc' picks Houston vs L.A. Chargers to go Over (42.5)

Geothrogrrc is #3 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'Geothrogrrc' is picking Houston to cover (-3.5)

Geothrogrrc is #3 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'pardo3' picks Houston vs L.A. Chargers to go Over (41.5)

pardo3 is #4 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.

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'SteveA2009' picks Houston vs L.A. Chargers to go Under (41.5)

SteveA2009 is #4 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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'SteveA2009' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+4.5)

SteveA2009 is #4 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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'pardo3' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+4.5)

pardo3 is #4 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.

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'ASkinsFanInDixi' picks Houston vs L.A. Chargers to go Over (41.5)

ASkinsFanInDixi is #6 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (5-2-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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'samua' picks Houston vs L.A. Chargers to go Under (41.5)

samua is #6 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.

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'samua' is picking Houston to cover (-5.5)

samua is #6 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.

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'ASkinsFanInDixi' is picking Houston to cover (-4.5)

ASkinsFanInDixi is #6 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (5-2-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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'Sandsaver727' is picking Houston to cover (-3.0)

Sandsaver727 is #7 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (7-0-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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'Sandsaver727' picks Houston vs L.A. Chargers to go Under (42.5)

Sandsaver727 is #7 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (7-0-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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'windowB' is picking Houston to cover (-3.0)

windowB is #8 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.

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LAC
Total

'windowB' picks Houston vs L.A. Chargers to go Over (42.5)

windowB is #8 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under

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