Los Angeles Rams

2nd in NFC West (0 - 0 - 0)

Next Game

Thu, Sep 10 20:35 ET

SF @ LA Picks

NFL Picks
Spread
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail SF +3.5 (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 days ago
Joe Osborne logo
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

Los Angeles is 8-11 SU across the last 19 head-to-heads vs San Francisco, with only four wins by four or more points. This will be the healthiest version of the 49ers we've seen in a while and they arrive in Melbourne six days before kickoff, giving them nearly a full week to adjust to the 17-hour time difference. The Rams, meanwhile, won’t arrive until one day before the game following a 15-hour flight, which is a questionable approach to a regular-season rivalry matchup. Give me the points!

Anytime Touchdown
Blake Corum logo Blake Corum Score a Touchdown (Yes: +180)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 days ago
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

From Weeks 10 to 18, Blake Corum wrestled away the rushing share from Kyren Williams near the goal line. Corum took 41% of the carries from inside the 10 and then 55% from inside the five. Corum will be a big part of this offense in 2026, and Davante Adams' insane RZ usage and success are going to be hard to replicate this year. Corum and Williams' TD prices are too wide if the rush share in tight is going to be closer to 50/50. Corum is a buy to +150/+155.

Passing Yards
Brock Purdy logo
Brock Purdy o244.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 250.66 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Brock Purdy comes in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league last year with a remarkable 70.1% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.. With an excellent 8.04 adjusted yards-per-target (84th percentile) last year, Brock Purdy ranks among the best per-play quarterbacks in the league.. Last year, the anemic Rams defense has allowed the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing teams: a colossal 0.00 YAC.
Rushing Yards
Brock Purdy logo
Brock Purdy o15.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 20.3 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
Terrance Ferguson logo
Terrance Ferguson o22.5 Receiving Yards (-150)
Projection 28.7 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Last year, the porous 49ers defense has given up the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a staggering 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of safeties has been lousy last year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Mike Evans logo
Mike Evans o46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 56.31 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to total 7.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.. When talking about air yards, Mike Evans ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among WRs last year, averaging a monstrous 106.0 per game.. Mike Evans's 59.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 90th percentile for wideouts.. With an exceptional 39.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (75th percentile) last year, Mike Evans ranks among the top WRs in the NFL in football.
Receiving Yards
George Kittle logo
George Kittle o39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 44.96 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. The predictive model expects George Kittle to garner 5.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.. The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.
Receiving Yards
Kyren Williams logo
Kyren Williams o10.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 13.22 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 22 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Kyren Williams has run a route on 54.9% of his team's dropbacks last year, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.. As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 98th percentile among running backs last year, totaling a superb 8.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Kyren Williams profiles as one of the top RBs in the pass game last year, averaging an impressive 15.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.
Receiving Yards
Christian McCaffrey logo
Christian McCaffrey o35.5 Receiving Yards (-135)
Projection 40.47 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Christian McCaffrey has run a route on 81.0% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.. In this game, Christian McCaffrey is predicted by the projection model to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.4 targets.. When it comes to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the towering 100th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a striking 21.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Christian McCaffrey ranks as one of the best RBs in the pass game last year, averaging a terrific 49.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.
Receiving Yards
Puka Nacua logo
Puka Nacua u94.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Projection 88.94 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.. With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) last year, Puka Nacua places as one of the top WRs in the league in football in picking up extra yardage.
Anytime Touchdown
Jake Tonges logo
Jake Tonges Score a Touchdown (Yes: +650)
Projection 0.23 (Yes)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Opposing teams have played at the 9th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) against the San Francisco 49ers defense last year, averaging 28.36 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. The model projects Jake Tonges to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the goal line in this contest (14.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been last year (7.5% in games he has played).. Jake Tonges grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, catching an outstanding 79.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 75th percentile.. With an excellent rate of 0.50 per game through the air (96th percentile), Jake Tonges has been among the top receiving TD-scorers in the league when it comes to tight ends last year.
Anytime Touchdown
Christian McCaffrey logo
Christian McCaffrey Score a Touchdown (Yes: -135)
Projection 0.9 (Yes)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. When it comes to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the towering 100th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a striking 21.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Christian McCaffrey's 41.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 100th percentile for RBs.. Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 100th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs last year, averaging an impressive 0.35 per game.. Last year, the formidable Rams run defense has allowed a paltry 0.47 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the NFL.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

63% picking L.A. Rams

37%
63%

Total Picks SF 239, LA 408

Spread
SF
LA
Total

48% picking San Francisco vs L.A. Rams to go Under

52%
48%

Total PicksSF 221, LA 206

Total
Over
Under

SF @ LA · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
PASSING YARDS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o244.5 Passing Yards
250.66 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
17.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o244.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

250.66 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
17.01% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Brock Purdy comes in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league last year with a remarkable 70.1% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.. With an excellent 8.04 adjusted yards-per-target (84th percentile) last year, Brock Purdy ranks among the best per-play quarterbacks in the league.. Last year, the anemic Rams defense has allowed the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing teams: a colossal 0.00 YAC.

o239.5 -115
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) o264.5 Passing Yards
266.16 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
12.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) o264.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

266.16 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
12.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. This week, Matthew Stafford is expected by the projection model to average the 10th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.4. . Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. With an impressive record of 242.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Matthew Stafford ranks among the best passers in the league last year.. Matthew Stafford has been one of the most efficient passers in the league last year, averaging a stellar 8.11 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 88th percentile.

o263.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards
20.30 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
23.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

20.30 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
23.57% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o15.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o59.5 Rushing Yards
60.97 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
15.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o59.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

60.97 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
15.24% EV

ANALYSIS

In this week's game, Christian McCaffrey is projected by the model to rank in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.7 rush attempts.. Out of all RBs, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 99th percentile for rush attempts last year, taking on 68.4% of the workload in his offense's run game.. With a terrific rate of 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (94th percentile), Christian McCaffrey ranks as one of the best pure runners in the league last year.

o59.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o55.5 Rushing Yards
57.61 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
-24.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o55.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

57.61 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
-24.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.. In this week's game, Kyren Williams is predicted by the projection model to land in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 12.8 carries.. Kyren Williams has garnered 60.5% of his team's carries last year, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a stellar tally of 70.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Kyren Williams ranks as one of the best running backs in the NFL last year.. Kyren Williams's rushing effectiveness (5.42 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league last year (95th percentile when it comes to RBs).

o55.5 -108
Caesars logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) o22.5 Receiving Yards
28.70 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
25.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) o22.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

28.70 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
25.67% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Last year, the porous 49ers defense has given up the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a staggering 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of safeties has been lousy last year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

o22.5 -150
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o46.5 Receiving Yards
56.31 OVER PROJECTION
+9.8 DIFFERENCE
23.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o46.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

56.31 OVER PROJECTION
+9.8 DIFFERENCE
23.84% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to total 7.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.. When talking about air yards, Mike Evans ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among WRs last year, averaging a monstrous 106.0 per game.. Mike Evans's 59.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 90th percentile for wideouts.. With an exceptional 39.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (75th percentile) last year, Mike Evans ranks among the top WRs in the NFL in football.

o46.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o39.5 Receiving Yards
44.96 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
22.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o39.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

44.96 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
22.16% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. The predictive model expects George Kittle to garner 5.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.. The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.

o36.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o10.5 Receiving Yards
13.22 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
20.97% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o10.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

13.22 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
20.97% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Kyren Williams has run a route on 54.9% of his team's dropbacks last year, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.. As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 98th percentile among running backs last year, totaling a superb 8.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Kyren Williams profiles as one of the top RBs in the pass game last year, averaging an impressive 15.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

o9.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o35.5 Receiving Yards
40.47 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
18.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o35.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

40.47 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
18.6% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Christian McCaffrey has run a route on 81.0% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.. In this game, Christian McCaffrey is predicted by the projection model to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.4 targets.. When it comes to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the towering 100th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a striking 21.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Christian McCaffrey ranks as one of the best RBs in the pass game last year, averaging a terrific 49.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.

o35.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) u94.5 Receiving Yards
88.94 UNDER PROJECTION
-5.6 DIFFERENCE
17.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) u94.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

88.94 UNDER PROJECTION
-5.6 DIFFERENCE
17.1% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.. With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) last year, Puka Nacua places as one of the top WRs in the league in football in picking up extra yardage.

u94.5 -125
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) o1.5 Receptions Made
2.17 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
6.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.17 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
6.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of safeties has been lousy last year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

o1.5 -140
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) u7.5 Receptions Made
6.94 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
4.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) u7.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

6.94 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
4.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.

u7.5 -138
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
2.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
2.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week, averaging 27.13 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Last year, the daunting Rams defense has allowed a feeble 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.

u4.5 -121
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.18% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to total 7.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.. Mike Evans's 59.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 90th percentile for wideouts.

o3.5 -130
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
1.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Kyren Williams has run a route on 54.9% of his team's dropbacks last year, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.. The 49ers pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.8%) versus RBs last year (86.8%).. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of safeties has been lousy last year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

o1.5 -145
Hard Rock Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-16.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-16.33% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. The predictive model expects George Kittle to garner 5.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.

o3.5 -135
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) u13.5 Rushing Attempts
12.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
13.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) u13.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

12.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
13.26% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Rams to run on 40.0% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

u13.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u15.5 Rushing Attempts
14.91 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
8.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u15.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.91 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
8.68% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week, averaging 27.13 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

u15.5 -111
DraftKings logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts
3.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-23.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

3.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-23.38% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o3.5 -124
DraftKings logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u34.5 Passing Attempts
33.52 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
9.93% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u34.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.52 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
9.93% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.

u34.5 -106
BetRivers logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts
33.03 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
6.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.03 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
6.89% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week, averaging 27.13 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

u33.5 -103
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u23.5 Passing Completions
22.49 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
8.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u23.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

22.49 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
8.18% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.

u23.5 -120
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions
21.75 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.75 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.86% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Brock Purdy comes in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league last year with a remarkable 70.1% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.

o21.5 -115
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jake Tonges logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
J. Tonges (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jake Tonges logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
J. Tonges (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing teams have played at the 9th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) against the San Francisco 49ers defense last year, averaging 28.36 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. The model projects Jake Tonges to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the goal line in this contest (14.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been last year (7.5% in games he has played).. Jake Tonges grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, catching an outstanding 79.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 75th percentile.. With an excellent rate of 0.50 per game through the air (96th percentile), Jake Tonges has been among the top receiving TD-scorers in the league when it comes to tight ends last year.

+700
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.9 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.05% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.9 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.05% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. When it comes to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the towering 100th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a striking 21.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Christian McCaffrey's 41.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 100th percentile for RBs.. Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 100th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs last year, averaging an impressive 0.35 per game.. Last year, the formidable Rams run defense has allowed a paltry 0.47 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the NFL.

-135
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.33% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Mike Evans has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 24.3% last year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.. When talking about air yards, Mike Evans ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among WRs last year, averaging a monstrous 106.0 per game.. Mike Evans's 59.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 90th percentile for wideouts.. Mike Evans ranks in the 81st percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns last year, averaging a remarkable 0.30 per game.

+250
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.56% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Last year, the weak 49ers defense has yielded a staggering 0.59 TDs through the air per game to opposing TEs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of safeties has been lousy last year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

+525
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.91% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Puka Nacua has put up a massive 92.0 air yards per game last year: 91st percentile among wide receivers.. Puka Nacua places in the 93rd percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a colossal 66.5 figure last year.. Puka Nacua ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football, completing an exceptional 81.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 99th percentile among wideouts.

+135
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.63 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.63 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.49% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. With a high 9.2% Red Zone Target Share (77th percentile) last year, Kyren Williams has been among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.. As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 98th percentile among running backs last year, totaling a superb 8.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Kyren Williams ranks in the 88th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns last year, averaging an impressive 0.15 per game.

-125
theScore Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.83% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Last year, the formidable Rams run defense has allowed a paltry 0.47 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the NFL.

+260
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-25.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-25.06% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Brock Purdy comes in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league last year with a remarkable 70.1% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.. Brock Purdy has been among the top touchdown passers in the NFL last year, averaging a remarkable 1.67 per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.. Last year, the formidable Rams run defense has allowed a paltry 0.47 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the NFL.

+600
bet365 logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.51% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week, averaging 27.13 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

u0.5 +133
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.43 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.43 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.49% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.

u0.5 -143
DraftKings logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
PASSING YARDS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o244.5 Passing Yards
250.66 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
17.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o244.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

250.66 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
17.01% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Brock Purdy comes in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league last year with a remarkable 70.1% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.. With an excellent 8.04 adjusted yards-per-target (84th percentile) last year, Brock Purdy ranks among the best per-play quarterbacks in the league.. Last year, the anemic Rams defense has allowed the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing teams: a colossal 0.00 YAC.

o239.5 -115
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) o264.5 Passing Yards
266.16 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
12.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) o264.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

266.16 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
12.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. This week, Matthew Stafford is expected by the projection model to average the 10th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.4. . Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. With an impressive record of 242.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Matthew Stafford ranks among the best passers in the league last year.. Matthew Stafford has been one of the most efficient passers in the league last year, averaging a stellar 8.11 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 88th percentile.

o263.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards
20.30 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
23.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

20.30 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
23.57% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o15.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o59.5 Rushing Yards
60.97 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
15.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o59.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

60.97 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
15.24% EV

ANALYSIS

In this week's game, Christian McCaffrey is projected by the model to rank in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.7 rush attempts.. Out of all RBs, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 99th percentile for rush attempts last year, taking on 68.4% of the workload in his offense's run game.. With a terrific rate of 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (94th percentile), Christian McCaffrey ranks as one of the best pure runners in the league last year.

o59.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o55.5 Rushing Yards
57.61 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
-24.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o55.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

57.61 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
-24.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.. In this week's game, Kyren Williams is predicted by the projection model to land in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 12.8 carries.. Kyren Williams has garnered 60.5% of his team's carries last year, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a stellar tally of 70.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Kyren Williams ranks as one of the best running backs in the NFL last year.. Kyren Williams's rushing effectiveness (5.42 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league last year (95th percentile when it comes to RBs).

o55.5 -108
Caesars logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) o22.5 Receiving Yards
28.70 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
25.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) o22.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

28.70 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
25.67% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Last year, the porous 49ers defense has given up the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a staggering 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of safeties has been lousy last year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

o22.5 -150
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o46.5 Receiving Yards
56.31 OVER PROJECTION
+9.8 DIFFERENCE
23.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o46.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

56.31 OVER PROJECTION
+9.8 DIFFERENCE
23.84% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to total 7.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.. When talking about air yards, Mike Evans ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among WRs last year, averaging a monstrous 106.0 per game.. Mike Evans's 59.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 90th percentile for wideouts.. With an exceptional 39.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (75th percentile) last year, Mike Evans ranks among the top WRs in the NFL in football.

o46.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o39.5 Receiving Yards
44.96 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
22.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o39.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

44.96 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
22.16% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. The predictive model expects George Kittle to garner 5.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.. The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.

o36.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o10.5 Receiving Yards
13.22 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
20.97% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o10.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

13.22 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
20.97% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Kyren Williams has run a route on 54.9% of his team's dropbacks last year, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.. As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 98th percentile among running backs last year, totaling a superb 8.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Kyren Williams profiles as one of the top RBs in the pass game last year, averaging an impressive 15.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

o9.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o35.5 Receiving Yards
40.47 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
18.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o35.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

40.47 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
18.6% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Christian McCaffrey has run a route on 81.0% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.. In this game, Christian McCaffrey is predicted by the projection model to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.4 targets.. When it comes to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the towering 100th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a striking 21.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Christian McCaffrey ranks as one of the best RBs in the pass game last year, averaging a terrific 49.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.

o35.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) u94.5 Receiving Yards
88.94 UNDER PROJECTION
-5.6 DIFFERENCE
17.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) u94.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

88.94 UNDER PROJECTION
-5.6 DIFFERENCE
17.1% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.. With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) last year, Puka Nacua places as one of the top WRs in the league in football in picking up extra yardage.

u94.5 -125
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) o1.5 Receptions Made
2.17 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
6.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.17 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
6.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of safeties has been lousy last year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

o1.5 -140
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) u7.5 Receptions Made
6.94 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
4.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) u7.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

6.94 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
4.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.

u7.5 -138
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
2.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
2.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week, averaging 27.13 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Last year, the daunting Rams defense has allowed a feeble 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.

u4.5 -121
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.18% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to total 7.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.. Mike Evans's 59.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 90th percentile for wideouts.

o3.5 -130
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
1.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Kyren Williams has run a route on 54.9% of his team's dropbacks last year, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.. The 49ers pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.8%) versus RBs last year (86.8%).. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of safeties has been lousy last year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

o1.5 -145
Hard Rock Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-16.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-16.33% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. The predictive model expects George Kittle to garner 5.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.

o3.5 -135
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) u13.5 Rushing Attempts
12.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
13.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) u13.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

12.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
13.26% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Rams to run on 40.0% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

u13.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u15.5 Rushing Attempts
14.91 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
8.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u15.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.91 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
8.68% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week, averaging 27.13 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

u15.5 -111
DraftKings logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts
3.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-23.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

3.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-23.38% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o3.5 -124
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u34.5 Passing Attempts
33.52 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
9.93% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u34.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.52 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
9.93% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.

u34.5 -106
BetRivers logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts
33.03 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
6.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.03 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
6.89% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week, averaging 27.13 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

u33.5 -103
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u23.5 Passing Completions
22.49 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
8.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u23.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

22.49 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
8.18% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.

u23.5 -120
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions
21.75 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.75 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.86% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Brock Purdy comes in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league last year with a remarkable 70.1% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.

o21.5 -115
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jake Tonges logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
J. Tonges (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jake Tonges logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
J. Tonges (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing teams have played at the 9th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) against the San Francisco 49ers defense last year, averaging 28.36 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. The model projects Jake Tonges to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the goal line in this contest (14.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been last year (7.5% in games he has played).. Jake Tonges grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, catching an outstanding 79.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 75th percentile.. With an excellent rate of 0.50 per game through the air (96th percentile), Jake Tonges has been among the top receiving TD-scorers in the league when it comes to tight ends last year.

+700
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.9 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.05% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.9 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.05% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. When it comes to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the towering 100th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a striking 21.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Christian McCaffrey's 41.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 100th percentile for RBs.. Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 100th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs last year, averaging an impressive 0.35 per game.. Last year, the formidable Rams run defense has allowed a paltry 0.47 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the NFL.

-135
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.33% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Mike Evans has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 24.3% last year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.. When talking about air yards, Mike Evans ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among WRs last year, averaging a monstrous 106.0 per game.. Mike Evans's 59.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 90th percentile for wideouts.. Mike Evans ranks in the 81st percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns last year, averaging a remarkable 0.30 per game.

+250
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Terrance Ferguson logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
T. Ferguson (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.56% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Last year, the weak 49ers defense has yielded a staggering 0.59 TDs through the air per game to opposing TEs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of safeties has been lousy last year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

+525
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Puka Nacua logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
P. Nacua (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.91% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. Puka Nacua has put up a massive 92.0 air yards per game last year: 91st percentile among wide receivers.. Puka Nacua places in the 93rd percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a colossal 66.5 figure last year.. Puka Nacua ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football, completing an exceptional 81.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 99th percentile among wideouts.

+135
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.63 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Kyren Williams logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
K. Williams (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.63 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.49% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 8th-most in football.. With a high 9.2% Red Zone Target Share (77th percentile) last year, Kyren Williams has been among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.. As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 98th percentile among running backs last year, totaling a superb 8.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Kyren Williams ranks in the 88th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns last year, averaging an impressive 0.15 per game.

-125
theScore Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.83% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Last year, the formidable Rams run defense has allowed a paltry 0.47 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the NFL.

+260
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-25.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-25.06% EV

ANALYSIS

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. Brock Purdy comes in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league last year with a remarkable 70.1% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.. Brock Purdy has been among the top touchdown passers in the NFL last year, averaging a remarkable 1.67 per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.. Last year, the formidable Rams run defense has allowed a paltry 0.47 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the NFL.

+600
bet365 logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.51% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to chug along at the 11th-worst tempo on the slate this week, averaging 27.13 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

u0.5 +133
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.43 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.43 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.49% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Rams to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.

u0.5 -143
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