Los Angeles Rams

Picks

The Panthers took Tetairoa McMillan with the eighth pick in the draft and he has delivered. The rookie WR leads Carolina in targets (96), receptions (56), and receiving yards (783). The Panthers are 10.5-point home underdogs against the Rams on Sunday which should lead to a passing game script from Carolina. With McMillan the only competent pass catcher on the roster, there will be a lot of throws heading his direction. While the Rams are in the Top 10 in most defensive categories, they rank a modest 17th in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers. They also allow the ninth-most adjusted receiving yards per game (155.0) versus wideouts.

The Rams are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games with four of their victories during that span coming by 14+ points. Meanwhile, Carolina has lost three of its last five games by double digits. Bryce Young has thrown for less than 200 yards in nine of 11 games this year and L.A. is second in the league in defensive dropback EPA. The Rams are also rolling on offense with weapons like Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams surrounding MVP favorite Matthew Stafford. They should move the ball against a Panthers defense that is 24th in the league in EPA and will likely be missing three starters.

The L.A. backup logged seven carries last week while Kyren Williams had 12 for 46 yards, but seven of Williams’ attempts came in the fourth quarter. Corum remains heavily involved in this offense, and with Bryce Young crashing back to earth, the Rams could control the clock on Sunday. Since Week 6, Corum has 58 carries to Williams’ 88, giving him roughly 40% of the workload. This TD price doesn’t reflect that split when Williams is sitting around -140. The red-zone work has also been close. Over the last three games, Corum has four carries inside the five to Williams’ two, and overall red-zone carries sit at seven to six in Williams’ favor. If Corum is getting 40% of the carries and better than half of the red-zone work, he should be priced closer to +200 to +240.

Recency bias has bumped this Week 13 spread from a look-ahead line of Panthers +9.5 to an official opener of +10.5. Given we’re getting a half-point hook on the key number with the home side, I’ll bite on Carolina. While the Panthers offense looked blinded by the primetime lights in San Francisco, the defense held up for as long as it could despite playing almost 38 minutes and missing stud CB Jaycee Horn in the second half (concussion). Carolina scored three takeaways (two from Horn) and checked the 49ers to 2-of-6 success in the red zone. After playing back-to-back road games and three of their last four away from home, Bank America Stadium is a sight for sore eyes for the Panthers. They’ve been much more competitive in Carolina (-1.0 MoV) and get a real home-field edge in Week 13, with L.A. playing a 1 p.m. ET start (10 a.m. PT) and possibly doing so in the rain.