Los Angeles Rams

Picks

The Panthers are going to have to throw at some point on Saturday as one of the biggest home underdogs in Wild Card history. That sets up well for Tommy Tremble, who stepped into a true every-down role last week and keeps it with Ja’Tavion Sanders out. Tremble played 90% of the snaps and saw four targets in a mostly neutral script. If Carolina falls behind early, that workload should climb into the five- or six-target range. He’s now the clear TE1 with no rotation behind him, which is rare this time of year. THE BLITZ projects Tremble for 2.98 receptions, making this number closer to a fair price of -115.

The Rams have an implied running game script as 10.5-point faves and with rain and heavy wind in the forecast, it's even more likely they'll lean on their ground game. With L.A. using both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum down the stretch, it's tough to decide which RB to bet on. That said, Williams has gotten the majority of touches in big games and they don't get any bigger than the playoffs. Williams has rushed for 70+ yards in five of his last six contests, including Week 13 at Carolina when he had 72 yards. The Panthers surrendered a whopping 144.8 rushing yards per game in the final 10 weeks of the regular season.

Williams has scored the opening TD in four Rams games this season.

There’s a mismatch on both sides of this bout, and the Panthers aren’t going to keep pace with – or cover the number against – the Rams on Saturday. Carolina finished 25th in DVOA with a minus-69 point differential, and Los Angeles ranked second with a plus-172 mark, after all. I also value the postseason experience of Rams MVP candidate Matthew Stafford, while Panthers QB Bryce Young is making his first playoff start against the fourth-ranked defense in DVOA and finished 20 spots below Stafford in EPA+CPOE composite during the regular season.

This is a massive price for a clear-cut TE1 on a team that should be throwing more than usual as a double-digit home underdog. In his first game without Ja’Tavion Sanders, Tremble stepped into the TE1 role and caught three of four targets for 38 yards and a TD at +500. He ranked third in route share and logged a 90% snap rate, second among pass catchers. He’s clearly involved yet priced like a TE2 with minimal usage. With Sanders still on IR, this should be closer to +300 or +330.

Sean McVay will lean into his ground game to get the play-action pass going, especially after watching Carolina get rolled for 140 yards rushing last week against the Bucs and after LA amassed 152 yards on the ground in their Week 13 meeting. Corum has been getting steady reps since Week 9. He’s has 11 or more carries in six of his last 10 games and gone for 40-plus rushing yards in seven of those outings. Big spread paints a game script of the Rams protecting a lead late and if this does become a blowout, second-teamers like Corum get extra love. 

Since that 31-point effort against the Rams (helped along by two interceptions and a pick-six), the Panthers have puttered along with offensive outputs of 10, 14, 17, and 23.

Los Angeles has issues in the secondary but faces a much tamer passing offense from Carolina, with QB Bryce Young passing for more than 200 yards just twice in the last six outings.

The Rams offense will lean into the run game after watching Tampa Bay march for 140 yards in a winning/losing effort versus Carolina in Week 18. Los Angeles rushed for 152 yards against the Panthers in Week 13. That will keep gains shorter and the clock ticking.