Los Angeles Rams

Picks

Allen averages almost 10 yards per catch against zone schemes (compared to 5.0 vs. man) and faces Falcons’ secondary running the 10th highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL He’s been most effective against zone, with McVay rolling out 12 and even 13 personnel, drawing 18 of his 32 total targets and 15 of his 24 receptions against zone defenses. Allen has drawn four or more targets in three of his last five games while snatching two or more of those balls in four of those showings. He’s posted reception longs of 12, 15, and 27 yards in three of those contests, each going Over his longest reception prop. Factoring in player projections for MNF, Allen is expected to catch two passes for an average of about 10 yards per reception. With the L.A. offense missing Davante Adams and Atlanta not allowing anything over the top, the tight ends will play a bigger role in passing game. I think the ceiling is higher for Allen.

Los Angeles’ biggest weakness has been its secondary in the second half of the season. This zone-heavy has been picked apart by elite WRs since November and London ranks as the No. 3 receiver versus zone coverage at PFF. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is also notably better against zone, including boasting the 11th highest percentage of “catchable balls” thrown against those schemes. London has played just 10 games due to injuries this season yet has drawn eight or more targets in all but two of those outings. He’s recorded six or more receptions in six of those games and his Week 17 forecasts all call for at least six grabs with a ceiling of seven catches on MNF. With the Falcons tabbed as sizable home underdogs, game script paints a pass-positive picture for Atlanta’s offense.

The Falcons’ secondary plays a high rate of zone and protects against the deep pass while the defensive front blitzes at the second highest rate in the NFL. That’s fine with Stafford, who owns the No. 2 passer rating versus zone schemes and is the No. 3 QB against the blitz, according to PFF.  Given Atlanta’s deep safeties and aggressive pass rush (and injuries to the L.A. o-line), downfield looks may not develop, leaving Stafford to slice and dice this Falcons’ zone with quicker more high-percentage passes underneath. He’s completed 22 or more throws in four of his last five outings and six of his last eight games. Week 17 projections range from 22 to 29 completions, with most models coming in at 23 or higher.

Last week, Sean McVay deployed three-tight-end sets on an eye-popping 61% of snaps. Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, and Terrance Ferguson all played at least 65% of the snaps and combined for 13 targets on 51 dropbacks. That usage makes the entire group intriguing from a props standpoint, but Parkinson stands out. He’s coming off a quiet outing that burned some bettors, which should help keep his number in check. THE BLITZ projects him for over 4.5 catches and 47 receiving yards, well above his current lines. Parkinson led all Rams in snap share at 85% and should remain heavily involved in another indoor, must-win spot. Indoor environments boost passing volume and efficiency, and with the Rams clearly committed to featuring their tight ends, Parkinson’s role sets up well. The Over 33.5 receiving yards is my preferred look, and the Over 3.5 receptions at -120 is also very playable.

With Davante Adams likely sidelined again, Xavier Smith should see meaningful snaps as the No. 2 or No. 3 receiver. Smith brings true vertical speed with a sub-4.40 40-yard dash and has the ability to get behind defenses, which showed up last week on a 48-yard catch. He’s a classic boom-or-bust option, but the opportunity is there. Smith ran the third-most routes among the Rams wide receivers and only needs one or two connections to pay off at this number. Konata Mumpfield may draw more attention on Monday night, but at +600 or better, Smith offers the better risk-reward profile.

The Falcons aren’t going to the tournament but continue to battle with veteran QB Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta has won back-to-back road games and Monday will be just its second homestand in the past six weeks. 

Los Angeles is a much stiffer test defensively than the Falcons’ recent foes but this team has a bevy of offensive weapons, especially with the return of WR Drake London, and head coach Raheem Morris could be coaching for his job on MNF.

This spread opened Atlanta +7.5 and jumped to +8.5, which is an underrated key number in football betting. I like the fight in the Falcons enough to take the pile of points with the home side.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -7.5-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.7 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. With a high 9.3% Red Zone Target% (76th percentile) this year, Kyren Williams rates among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.. As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 98th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 7.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.7 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. The leading projections forecast Puka Nacua to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the end zone in this contest (26.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.8% in games he has played).. After accruing 75.0 air yards per game last year, Puka Nacua has seen marked improvement this year, currently pacing 94.0 per game.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.. Drake London profiles as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 5.6 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -7.5-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.7 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.4. . When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Atlanta's unit has been lousy this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.7 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.4.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -7.5-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.7 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.4. . With an outstanding tally of 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Matthew Stafford places as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year.