Los Angeles Rams

Picks

This is a big fat fade of both defenses. Los Angeles is allowing an average of 30 points over their last five games, while Chicago ranks 29th in yards allowed per play on the season.  The Rams average a league-high 30.7 points per game and have the firepower to embarrass a Bears pass defense which is one of the NFL's worst.

After leading all pass-catchers in yards last week, I didn’t expect Colston Loveland to be priced north of +170 in the highest-total game of the Divisional Round. Loveland did everything but score in the Wild Card, piling up 15 targets and 137 yards. He may draw more attention this week, but this offense has enough weapons that the Rams can’t afford to sell out to stop him. This same defense just allowed over 200 yards to Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker and has surrendered 149 points over its last five games, including matchups against Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett, and Kirk Cousins. Loveland is in full beast mode with three straight games of 90-plus yards, and there’s no reason that run ends on Sunday.

What do we know about the Bears? They fall behind, allowing 12.5 1H points against and that’s been really ugly in recent outings. What do we know about the Rams? McVay will script one hell of an opening drive. Los Angeles the third best 1H offense in the NFL – 15.2 points per 1H. This game has the potential for a shootout given the tall total and it starts early and often. Rams 12-7 O/U against their 1H TT this season.

Adams returned from injury in the Wild Card. He drew 13 targets but had just 5 receptions, still picking up 72 yards. That was against a zone-heavy scheme. He’s going to face more one-on-one man coverage in Chicago and while Puka Nacua is the best WR vs. man, DaVante’s not too far behind him, according to PFF. Puka is the ultimate YAC receiver while Adams is more of the air yards weapon. Chicago a strong tackling team that limits those yards after catch, but third most air yards allowed. Projections for Adams all north of 60 yards.

Chicago’s explosive passing attack can expose this L.A. secondary, that’s struggled in the home stretch and just made Bryce Young look like Steve Young in the Wild Card Round (for the second time this season).

And there’s the matter of the Rams traveling for a second straight week and coming into a cold climate, with extended forecasts calling for bitter temperatures (feels like -7) and potential 20-plus mph winds at Soldier Field.

The Bears are 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games. Their offense has been churning out yards on the ground while their defense does a great job forcing turnovers. They'll have a significant home-field advantage in this game with Soldier Field rocking on a freezing and windy night, and the Rams making two cross-country flights over the week. Rams superstar QB Matthew Stafford has struggled in cold-weather games, and eight of his nine picks this year (reg season and playoffs) have come on the road. He's also banged up and will be playing with a sprained index finger on his throwing hand.