Los Angeles Rams

Picks

This is a big number for a tight end who saw three red-zone targets last week, just one behind George Kittle’s league-leading four at the position. It might look like a long shot, but Matthew Stafford has been on fire with four passing touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games. The Rams also kept throwing late last week, even with a comfortable lead. Parkinson has only one touchdown this season (last week at +950), but he’s had at least one red-zone target in four straight games and led the Rams’ tight ends in snap share last week at 57%. Stafford leans on his tight ends near the goal line — they’ve accounted for seven of his 25 touchdown passes this season.

The Rams have shifted into cruise control and covered the number in each of their four consecutive wins. Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford has also paced the league in adjusted EPA per play and success rate while throwing four 7.3 yards per attempt and a 67.7 completion percentage during the winning streak. He’s thrown 14 touchdowns without an interception, too. Obviously, Seattle QB Sam Darnold has also been a statistical darling, but I’m anticipating the Los Angeles defense to do just enough to keep him off balance Sunday. So, with this spread below the key number of 3, I’m happy to take the home team – especially with Stafford playing at an elite level.

The Rams are rolling and can pull away from the NFC West pack with a win at home in Week 11. Los Angeles has to tame this Seattle defense, but has done a great job keeping QB Matt Stafford clean and Sean McVay’s play-action offense will keep the Seahawks guessing. As for the Seattle offense, this is a significant step up in opposition on both sides of the ball. Los Angeles’ zone-centric schemes will limit the Seahawks’ downfield looks and force Sam Darnold into a grinder of a game against a defense ranked among the best in third down defense and red-zone stands.