Los Angeles Rams

Picks

Last week, Sean McVay deployed three-tight-end sets on an eye-popping 61% of snaps. Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, and Terrance Ferguson all played at least 65% of the snaps and combined for 13 targets on 51 dropbacks. That usage makes the entire group intriguing from a props standpoint, but Parkinson stands out. He’s coming off a quiet outing that burned some bettors, which should help keep his number in check. THE BLITZ projects him for over 4.5 catches and 47 receiving yards, well above his current lines. Parkinson led all Rams in snap share at 85% and should remain heavily involved in another indoor, must-win spot. Indoor environments boost passing volume and efficiency, and with the Rams clearly committed to featuring their tight ends, Parkinson’s role sets up well. The Over 33.5 receiving yards is my preferred look, and the Over 3.5 receptions at -120 is also very playable.

With Davante Adams likely sidelined again, Xavier Smith should see meaningful snaps as the No. 2 or No. 3 receiver. Smith brings true vertical speed with a sub-4.40 40-yard dash and has the ability to get behind defenses, which showed up last week on a 48-yard catch. He’s a classic boom-or-bust option, but the opportunity is there. Smith ran the third-most routes among the Rams wide receivers and only needs one or two connections to pay off at this number. Konata Mumpfield may draw more attention on Monday night, but at +600 or better, Smith offers the better risk-reward profile.

The Falcons aren’t going to the tournament but continue to battle with veteran QB Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta has won back-to-back road games and Monday will be just its second homestand in the past six weeks. 

Los Angeles is a much stiffer test defensively than the Falcons’ recent foes but this team has a bevy of offensive weapons, especially with the return of WR Drake London, and head coach Raheem Morris could be coaching for his job on MNF.

This spread opened Atlanta +7.5 and jumped to +8.5, which is an underrated key number in football betting. I like the fight in the Falcons enough to take the pile of points with the home side.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Rams to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. With a high 9.3% Red Zone Target% (76th percentile) this year, Kyren Williams rates among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.. As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 98th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 7.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.. Drake London profiles as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 5.6 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Rams to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2. . When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Atlanta's unit has been lousy this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Rams to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Rams to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2. . With an outstanding tally of 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Matthew Stafford places as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Rams to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. This week, Colby Parkinson is predicted by the model to place in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.8 targets.. While Colby Parkinson has garnered 9.9% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Los Angeles's passing offense in this week's game at 18.0%.