New England Patriots

1st in AFC East (13 - 3 - 0)

Next Game

MIAMiami Miami
at
New England NENew England
Sun, Jan 4 16:25 ET

MIA @ NE Picks

NFL Picks
Score a Touchdown
Efton Chism III logo Efton Chism III Score a Touchdown (Yes: +450)
Best Odds
 +450 bet365
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 -
 +450
 -
 -
 -

The Patriots still have everything to play for, with outcomes ranging from the No. 1 seed to the No. 3 seed. That urgency sets up well for a focused offensive game plan against Miami in cold-weather conditions. Efton Chism ran the second-most routes last week, played more than 90% of the snaps in the second half, and cashed a 10-yard touchdown in the third quarter. His snap share should remain high, and with Stefon Diggs dealing with legal issues and Kayshon Boutte still in the concussion protocol, Chism could be a featured wideout in Week 18. At +450, this is a price I’d play down to +300.

Total
Miami Dolphins logo New England Patriots logo o45.5 (-115)
Best Odds
o45.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 3 days ago
Jeremy Jones image
Jeremy Jones
Betting Analyst
o45.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
o45.5  -110
o45.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o45.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o45.5  -112
These are quick bet odds

The Dolphins defense is so bad and the Patriots offense is so good that it won't matter how much the Dolphins can score for this Over to hit. 

Spread
New England Patriots logo NE -10.5 (-110)
Best Odds
-11.5 -111 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Jeremy Jones image
Jeremy Jones
Betting Analyst
-10.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
-10.5  -110
-11.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
-10.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
-10.5  -110
These are quick bet odds

Mike McDaniels' Dolphins teams have always struggled in cold weather and the Patriots need this win to try and get the 1-seed in the AFC. 

Passing Yards
Quinn Ewers logo
Quinn Ewers u210.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 188.87 (Under)
Best Odds
u210.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
u210.5  -110
u206.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u210.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u207.5  -117
These are quick bet odds
At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (55.3% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.. The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 2nd-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 51.8 per game on average).. The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. The Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
-110 at bet365
Rushing Yards
Drake Maye logo
Drake Maye o17.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 29.01 (Over)
Best Odds
o17.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
o17.5  -110
 -
o17.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
 -
At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 11th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (129 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.
-110 at bet365
Rushing Yards
De'Von Achane logo
De'Von Achane o67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 77.71 (Over)
Best Odds
o67.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
o67.5  -110
 -
o67.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most run-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 44.7% run rate.. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to earn 17.4 carries in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.. After comprising 46.4% of his offense's run game usage last year, De'Von Achane has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now making up 62.9%.. De'Von Achane has rushed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (68.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).. De'Von Achane's 5.1 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a meaningful growth in his rushing proficiency over last season's 4.2 rate.
-110 at bet365

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Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'presley1' is picking Miami to cover (+9.5)

presley1 is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +5250 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
NE
Spread
+11.0 -109
-10.5 -109
Total

'spiveytexas61' picks Miami vs New England to go Under (45.5)

spiveytexas61 is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (10-5-1) and +6050 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
45.5 +100
Spread

'spiveytexas61' is picking Miami to cover (+10.5)

spiveytexas61 is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (10-5-1) and +6050 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
NE
Spread
+11.0 -109
-10.5 -109
Spread

'adamort22' is picking Miami to cover (+9.5)

adamort22 is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (10-5-0) and +6050 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
NE
Spread
+11.0 -109
-10.5 -109
Spread

'simoncald' is picking New England to cover (-11.0)

simoncald is #5 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-6-0) and +5500 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
NE
Spread
+11.0 -109
-10.5 -109
Total

'simoncald' picks Miami vs New England to go Over (45.5)

simoncald is #5 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-6-0) and +5500 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
45.5 +100
Spread

'Coachp46' is picking New England to cover (-10.5)

Coachp46 is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-0-0) and +5250 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
NE
Spread
+11.0 -109
-10.5 -109
Total

'Coachp46' picks Miami vs New England to go Over (45.5)

Coachp46 is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-0-0) and +5250 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
45.5 +100

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