New England Patriots

1st in AFC East (11 - 2 - 0)

Next Game

BUFBuffalo Buffalo
at
New England NENew England
Sun, Dec 14 13:00 ET

BUF @ NE Picks

NFL Picks
Passing Touchdowns
Josh Allen logo Josh Allen o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)
Best Odds
o1.5 -102 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
o1.5  -104
These are quick bet odds
o1.5  -115
o1.5  -102
These are quick bet odds
o1.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o1.5  -105
These are quick bet odds

A soft slate of rival QBs has concealed the Patriots' weakness to the pass but against above-average passers, the Patriots allowed two or more passing touchdowns to Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, Michael Penix Jr., and Allen in Week 5. Allen has record two or more touchdown passes in eight of his 13 games this season. Week 15 forecasts for Allen call for between 1.6 and 2.0 touchdown throws. Allen does his best work when the calendar flips to December, averaging more than 1.8 TD passes per December game over his career.

Touchdowns
Dalton Kincaid logo Dalton Kincaid o0.5 Touchdowns (+245)
Best Odds
o0.5 +295 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
o0.5  +295
These are quick bet odds
o0.5  +275
o0.5  +270
These are quick bet odds
o0.5  +275
These are quick bet odds
o0.5  +270
These are quick bet odds

In his first game back from injury, Dalton Kincaid scored at +210 and finished with four catches on five targets, including one in the red zone. Buffalo’s tight ends were heavily involved against Cincinnati, catching 11 passes compared to nine from the wide receivers. With another week of work, Kincaid should see an increase from the 52 percent route share he had last game. He’s also off the injury report entirely, which is a strong indication he’s back to full health heading into a rematch with New England, where he posted six catches and over 100 yards in Week 5. This touchdown price should be under +200.

Spread
New England Patriots logo NE +1.5 (-115)
Best Odds
+1.0 -110 bet365
Pick made: 4 days ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
+1.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
+1.0  -110
+1.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
+1.0  -110
These are quick bet odds
+1.5  -114
These are quick bet odds

New England is coming off a bye with two weeks to scheme for Josh Allen and the Bills – yet opened as short home dogs in Week 15. We’re already seeing the vig on Buffalo -1.5 get discounted to EVEN money and it would surprise me if this hit pick’em soon and closed with the Pats as slim home chalk. The Bills escaped a wintery war with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, needing takeaways and Josh Allen to go “God Mode” once again. This Buffalo defense is doo-doo, allowing 25 first downs and six yards per play to the Bengals at home in Week 14. New England is much stiffer defensively and can lean into their ground game to dominate the football, methodically move the chains, and keep Allen on the sidelines. This is the biggest game in recent history for New England and would secure Coach of the Year for Mike Vrabel.

Passing Yards
Drake Maye logo
Drake Maye u235.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 225.69 (Under)
Best Odds
u235.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u234.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
u233.5  -110
u233.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u235.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u234.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.. This year, the daunting Buffalo Bills defense has given up a mere 188.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 3rd-fewest in football.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (66.4% Adjusted Completion%).
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u229.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 220.66 (Under)
Best Odds
u229.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u229.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
u229.5  -110
u228.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u229.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u227.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 32.1 passes this week, on balance: the 10th-fewest among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.
-110 at bet365
Interceptions Thrown
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-105)
Projection 0.4 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 -105 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
u0.5  -105
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  -120
u0.5  -114
u0.5  -125
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  -114
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 32.1 passes this week, on balance: the 10th-fewest among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.
-105 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Dalton Kincaid logo
Dalton Kincaid u45.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Projection 38.61 (Under)
Best Odds
u45.5 -112 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
u45.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
u43.5  -110
u43.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u43.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
u44.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Dalton Kincaid's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 43.0.. Dalton Kincaid's talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this year, notching just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.16 mark last year.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.
-112 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Stefon Diggs logo
Stefon Diggs u52.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Projection 48.66 (Under)
Best Odds
u54.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u52.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
u54.5  -110
u50.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u54.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
u51.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.. After averaging 64.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has been a disappointment this year, now pacing 53.0 per game.. Stefon Diggs's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 53.8.. Stefon Diggs's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a noteable reduction in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 3.9% rate.
-110 at bet365
Receiving Yards
Hunter Henry logo
Hunter Henry o41.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Projection 44.65 (Over)
Best Odds
o39.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o41.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
o39.5  -110
o42.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o39.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o41.5  -117
These are quick bet odds
The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.. The projections expect Hunter Henry to total 5.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Hunter Henry has put up a colossal 43.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to TEs.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.. Hunter Henry has been one of the top pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 47.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.
-110 at bet365
Rushing Yards
Drake Maye logo
Drake Maye o20.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 29.34 (Over)
Best Odds
o20.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 4 days ago
EV Model Rating
o21.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
o21.5  -110
o20.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o21.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o21.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
The opposing side have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (134 per game) against the Bills defense this year.. The Bills safeties project as the 29th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u35.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 32.75 (Under)
Best Odds
u35.5 -109 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u35.5  -109
These are quick bet odds
u35.5  -110
u35.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u35.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u35.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. This year, the daunting Patriots run defense has yielded a feeble 85.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the best in the NFL.
-109 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Attempts
James Cook III logo
James Cook III u19.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)
Projection 17.35 (Under)
Best Odds
u19.5 -125 bet365
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u18.5  -121
u19.5  -125
u18.5  -106
u19.5  -130
u18.5  -108
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.
-125 at bet365

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Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

There are no Consensus Picks for this match up at the moment. Visit our Consensus to see all Consensus picks.

Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'charro23' is picking New England to cover (-1.0)

charro23 is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (12-1-0) and +7470 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
NE
Spread
-1.0 -108
+2.5 -131
Total

'charro23' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Over (47.5)

charro23 is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (12-1-0) and +7470 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
48.5 -131
49.5 +104
Spread

'Riverdawg' is picking Buffalo to cover (+1.5)

Riverdawg is #10 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +4450 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
NE
Spread
-1.0 -108
+2.5 -131
Spread

'Technique' is picking Buffalo to cover (+1.5)

Technique is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
NE
Spread
-1.0 -108
+2.5 -131
Total

'Technique' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Under (49.5)

Technique is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
48.5 -131
49.5 +104
Total

'simoncald' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Under (49.5)

simoncald is #2 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
48.5 -131
49.5 +104
Total

'Scotty885' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Under (49.5)

Scotty885 is #3 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (11-2-0) and +5150 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
48.5 -131
49.5 +104
Spread

'Scotty885' is picking Buffalo to cover (-1.0)

Scotty885 is #3 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (11-2-0) and +5150 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
NE
Spread
-1.0 -108
+2.5 -131
Total

'Sahrmike' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Over (49.5)

Sahrmike is #5 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
48.5 -131
49.5 +104
Spread

'Sahrmike' is picking Buffalo to cover (-1.0)

Sahrmike is #5 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4900 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
NE
Spread
-1.0 -108
+2.5 -131
Spread

'johnnyjbd24' is picking Buffalo to cover (-1.0)

johnnyjbd24 is #6 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
NE
Spread
-1.0 -108
+2.5 -131
Spread

'Bert1' is picking New England to cover (-1.5)

Bert1 is #7 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
NE
Spread
-1.0 -108
+2.5 -131
Total

'Insiderone777' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Over (49.5)

Insiderone777 is #7 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
48.5 -131
49.5 +104
Total

'Bert1' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Over (49.5)

Bert1 is #7 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
48.5 -131
49.5 +104
Spread

'deweyay9' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

deweyay9 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
NE
Spread
-1.0 -108
+2.5 -131
Total

'deweyay9' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Under (47.5)

deweyay9 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
48.5 -131
49.5 +104
Total

'Jhusagic' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Under (49.5)

Jhusagic is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
48.5 -131
49.5 +104
Spread

'Jhusagic' is picking Buffalo to cover (-1.0)

Jhusagic is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
NE
Spread
-1.0 -108
+2.5 -131
Spread

'Alexmaldonado' is picking New England to cover (-1.5)

Alexmaldonado is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +4650 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
NE
Spread
-1.0 -108
+2.5 -131
Total

'Alexmaldonado' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Over (48.0)

Alexmaldonado is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +4650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
48.5 -131
49.5 +104

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