New England Patriots

Picks

New England finished the regular season with an NFL-best 1st Half record of 12-4-1 ATS. They led the league in 1st Half scoring while the Chargers ranked 20th. I expect the fast starts to continue as Los Angeles could be in for a long adjustment period as an indoor team playing in frigid New England weather with the temperature expected to be below 40°F at kickoff. 

Maye made magic with his ability to tuck and run, marching for 450 rushing yards this season. However, as playoff chances improved, his propensity to run dwindled as the Patriots worried more about protecting their passer. In the first 10 games, Maye recorded seven or more carries seven times. He’s reached that bar just once in the last seven outings. That caution goes out the window Sunday. A tough L.A. defense – especially on third downs – will spring Maye from the pocket and we’ll see a return to the run. His rushing projections sit as high as 31 yards for Sunday.

Drake Maye has been fantastic this season but he was also sacked 47 times — the fourth-highest number in the NFL. Maye holds on to the ball too long, largely due to his mediocre receivers who have a hard time separating from DBs. They'll have a tough time getting open against a strong Chargers pass defense which will make him a standing target for Tuli Tuipulotu. Tuipulotu finished the regular season 11th in the league in pressures (70) and sixth in sacks (13). He has picked up a sack in six of his last nine games and should add to that tally on Sunday.

TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson are splitting the backfield, but their roles have become more defined. Stevenson has been more involved as a pass catcher, while Henderson has handled the heavier rushing workload, with 22 carries over the last two games compared to just 15 for Stevenson. Henderson has also taken over the high-leverage touches. Since Week 10, he has 13 red-zone carries to Stevenson’s four, including six attempts from inside the five-yard line versus only two for Stevenson. That kind of usage is hard to ignore. Henderson should see at least 60% of the carries and continue to dominate the early-down goal-line work. At anything to +110 for a touchdown, this is a price worth playing.

The cold conditions don’t help put points on the board, but we also have two solid defenses going to work in the Wild Card Round. Los Angeles’ zone-centric schemes have bottled up passing attacks and kept explosive plays at bay, with the Bolts giving up the second fewest receptions of 20 yards or more on the season. That could dull the Patriots’ downfield plans, with QB Drake Maye leading the league's second-most “explosive” air assault. As for New England, it also does a great job holding rival QBs in check. The Patriots rank Top 10 in EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per dropback, while giving up the eighth fewest receptions of 20+ yards. With both passing games shortened and neither team wanting to press for fear of turnovers, I see both offenses attacking on the ground. That keeps gains shorter and the clock ticking, which is a perfect recipe for Unders.