New England Patriots
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1st in AFC East (11 - 2 - 0)

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Sun, Dec 14 13:00 ET

BUF @ NE Picks

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NE +1.5 (-115)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

New England is coming off a bye with two weeks to scheme for Josh Allen and the Bills – yet opened as short home dogs in Week 15. We’re already seeing the vig on Buffalo -1.5 get discounted to EVEN money and it would surprise me if this hit pick’em soon and closed with the Pats as slim home chalk. The Bills escaped a wintery war with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, needing takeaways and Josh Allen to go “God Mode” once again. This Buffalo defense is doo-doo, allowing 25 first downs and six yards per play to the Bengals at home in Week 14. New England is much stiffer defensively and can lean into their ground game to dominate the football, methodically move the chains, and keep Allen on the sidelines. This is the biggest game in recent history for New England and would secure Coach of the Year for Mike Vrabel.

Receptions Made

Khalil Shakir o4.5 Receptions Made (+125)

Projection 5.02 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Khalil Shakir has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 20.2% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile among WRs.. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Bills ranks as the best in football this year.. Khalil Shakir checks in as one of the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in an impressive 78.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.. This year, the deficient Patriots pass defense has surrendered a massive 66.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.

Passing Yards

Josh Allen u231.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Projection 223.51 (Under)

Best Odds

u231.5 -110

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u227.5 -114

u231.5 -110

u228.5 -114

u227.5 -114

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.1 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 32.0 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

Interceptions Thrown

Josh Allen u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-109)

Projection 0.4 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 18 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.1 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 32.0 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

-109 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Khalil Shakir o39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 55.9 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Khalil Shakir has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 20.2% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile among WRs.. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Bills ranks as the best in football this year.. Khalil Shakir checks in as one of the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in an impressive 78.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.. This year, the deficient Patriots pass defense has surrendered a massive 66.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.

Receiving Yards

TreVeyon Henderson o14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 19.04 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 7 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.. As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Buffalo's collection of LBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in the league.

Receiving Yards

Hunter Henry o40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 44.35 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 7 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.. The projections expect Hunter Henry to total 5.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Hunter Henry has put up a colossal 43.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to TEs.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.. Hunter Henry has been one of the top pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 47.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Receiving Yards

James Cook III o13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 15.59 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 7 hours ago

EV Model Rating

In regards to air yards, James Cook grades out in the towering 88th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a superb 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Bills ranks as the best in football this year.. James Cook profiles as one of the leading pass-game running backs this year, averaging a stellar 17.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.. James Cook's 96.7% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a material growth in his pass-catching ability over last season's 84.6% mark.. The Patriots pass defense has given up the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (84.9%) vs. running backs this year (84.9%).

Rushing Yards

Drake Maye o20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 28.62 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 7 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The opposing side have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (134 per game) against the Bills defense this year.. The Bills safeties project as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Rushing Attempts

James Cook III u18.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)

Projection 17.1 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.1 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.

Consensus Picks

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There are no Consensus Picks for this match up at the moment. Visit our Consensus to see all Consensus picks.

Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

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'charro23' is picking New England to cover (-1.0)

charro23 is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (12-1-0) and +7470 units on the season.

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BUF

NE

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'charro23' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Over (47.5)

charro23 is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (12-1-0) and +7470 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'Riverdawg' is picking Buffalo to cover (+1.5)

Riverdawg is #10 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +4450 units on the season.

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BUF

NE

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'Technique' is picking Buffalo to cover (+1.5)

Technique is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

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BUF

NE

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'Bert1' is picking New England to cover (-1.5)

Bert1 is #7 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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BUF

NE

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'Insiderone777' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Over (49.5)

Insiderone777 is #7 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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Under

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'Bert1' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Over (49.5)

Bert1 is #7 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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Under

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'deweyay9' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

deweyay9 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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BUF

NE

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'deweyay9' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Under (47.5)

deweyay9 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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Under

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'Jhusagic' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Under (49.5)

Jhusagic is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'Jhusagic' is picking Buffalo to cover (-1.0)

Jhusagic is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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BUF

NE

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'Alexmaldonado' is picking New England to cover (-1.5)

Alexmaldonado is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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BUF

NE

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'Alexmaldonado' picks Buffalo vs New England to go Over (48.0)

Alexmaldonado is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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