New England Patriots
Picks

1st in AFC East (12 - 3 - 0)

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at

Sun, Dec 28 13:00 ET

NE @ NYJ Picks

Spread

NE -13.5 (-110)

Best Odds

Pick made: 33 minutes ago

New York has lost three straight games by at least three touchdowns each, and New England should have little trouble extending that streak.

Score a Touchdown

Mack Hollins Score a Touchdown (Yes: +265)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 days ago

Mac Hollins’ stat line last week was easy to overlook with Stefon Diggs grabbing the headlines, but the usage was real. Hollins finished with 69 yards on seven catches and nine targets, quietly playing a key role in the passing game. He also cashed a $300K incentive with his 40th reception and now sits just four catches away from another $400K bonus. This sets up as a favorable spot for an offense that typically handles bad teams, and New England’s red-zone tendencies only add to the appeal. The Patriots’ running backs have accounted for zero touchdowns over the last three games in the red zone despite nine red-zone carries and three red-zone targets, forcing scoring equity back to the passing game. With New England capable of hanging a big number on Sunday, Hollins’ volume and motivation make him a strong plus-money consideration.

Score a Touchdown

Rhamondre Stevenson Score a Touchdown (Yes: -170)

Projection 0.89 (Yes)

Best Odds

Pick made: 15 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. The predictive model expects Rhamondre Stevenson to be much more involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line in this contest (12.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).. Rhamondre Stevenson has accumulated many more air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (-3.0 per game).. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.. This year, the shaky Jets defense has given up a staggering 0.53 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the highest rate in the NFL.

Score a Touchdown

Hunter Henry Score a Touchdown (Yes: +145)

Projection 0.44 (Yes)

Best Odds

Pick made: 9 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. With a top-tier 29.7% Red Zone Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry rates as one of the TEs with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.. Hunter Henry has notched a massive 43.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.. Hunter Henry grades out in the 87th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an excellent 0.35 per game.

Receptions Made

Hunter Henry u4.5 Receptions Made (-125)

Projection 3.62 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 127.0 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Hunter Henry's 37.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 44.2.. Hunter Henry's 3.1 adjusted catches per game this season signifies a material diminishment in his receiving ability over last season's 4.2 mark.

Passing Completions

Drake Maye u22.5 Passing Completions (-122)

Projection 19.26 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 127.0 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.

-122 at FanDuel

Passing Attempts

Drake Maye u31.5 Passing Attempts (-120)

Projection 28.89 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 127.0 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.

-120 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Drake Maye u252.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Projection 223.72 (Under)

Best Odds

u255.5 -114

Pick made: 2 days ago

EV Model Rating

u252.5 -112

u248.5 -110

u255.5 -114

u248.5 -115

u252.5 -130

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 127.0 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Brady Cook o167.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Projection 185.24 (Over)

Best Odds

o166.5 -118

Pick made: 15 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o167.5 -114

o174.5 +100

o167.5 -114

o166.5 -118

o168.5 -114

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. This year, the porous Patriots defense has yielded a colossal 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

Receiving Yards

Jeremy Ruckert o12.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 19.57 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. Jeremy Ruckert's 85.1% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a significant gain in his receiving talent over last season's 66.4% rate.. Jeremy Ruckert's pass-catching effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, notching 6.69 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 3.86 figure last season.. The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (61.0) to tight ends this year.

Receiving Yards

Breece Hall o10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 14.47 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. When talking about air yards, Breece Hall grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among RBs this year, accruing a superb 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. Breece Hall's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 76.7% to 89.2%.. Breece Hall's 7.9 adjusted yards per target this year shows a noteable progression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 6.2 figure.

Receiving Yards

Hunter Henry u47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 41.36 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 127.0 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Hunter Henry's 37.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 44.2.. Hunter Henry's 70.5% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a significant drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 75.1% mark.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

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70% picking New England

70% 70%

30% 30%

Total Picks NE 413, NYJ 176

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NE

NYJ

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Top User Picks

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'Sahrmike' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+13.0)

Sahrmike is #1 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +5850 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'Sahrmike' picks New England vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (43.5)

Sahrmike is #1 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +5850 units on the season.

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'presley1' is picking New England to cover (-9.5)

presley1 is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'CastlemontDB91' is picking New England to cover (-9.5)

CastlemontDB91 is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (10-5-0) and +5550 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'CastlemontDB91' picks New England vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (43.5)

CastlemontDB91 is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (10-5-0) and +5550 units on the season.

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'Bert1' is picking New England to cover (-13.0)

Bert1 is #3 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'rquiroz' is picking New England to cover (-13.0)

rquiroz is #6 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'fttrdoyle' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+13.0)

fttrdoyle is #8 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (7-5-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'fttrdoyle' picks New England vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (43.5)

fttrdoyle is #8 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (7-5-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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'jessestars' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+13.0)

jessestars is #9 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (9-4-0) and +4550 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'jessestars' picks New England vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (43.5)

jessestars is #9 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (9-4-0) and +4550 units on the season.

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