New England Patriots
Picks

1st in AFC East (11 - 3 - 0)

Next Game

NENew England

BALBaltimore

Sun, Dec 21 20:20 ET

NE @ BAL Picks

NFL Picks

Passing Yards

Drake Maye u245.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Projection 232.88 (Under)

Best Odds

u245.5 -113

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u245.5 -113

u233.5 -110

u237.5 -114

u233.5 -115

u238.5 -115

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the best safety corps in football this year in defending receivers.

-113 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Derrick Henry o5.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 10.77 (Over)

Best Odds

o5.5 -110

Pick made: 38 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o5.5 -110

Derrick Henry has totaled a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.2%) vs. RBs this year (85.2%).

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Zay Flowers o64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 71.43 (Over)

Best Odds

o62.5 -114

Pick made: 21 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o63.5 -112

o64.5 -110

o62.5 -114

o64.5 -115

o63.5 -117

In this week's game, Zay Flowers is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 92nd percentile among WRs with 8.7 targets.. Zay Flowers has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 29.6% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. When it comes to air yards, Zay Flowers grades out in the lofty 80th percentile among wideouts this year, averaging a superb 71.0 per game.. Zay Flowers rates as one of the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 60.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.. The Patriots pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus wideouts this year, yielding 8.56 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in football.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Hunter Henry o38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 43.29 (Over)

Best Odds

o38.5 -110

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o41.5 -113

o38.5 -110

o40.5 -114

o38.5 -115

o40.5 -114

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game.. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. The projections expect Hunter Henry to accrue 5.8 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. When it comes to air yards, Hunter Henry ranks in the towering 92nd percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a massive 42.0 per game.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Mark Andrews o30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 34.75 (Over)

Best Odds

o30.5 -110

Pick made: 20 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o34.5 -112

o30.5 -110

o33.5 -114

o30.5 -115

o33.5 -118

Our trusted projections expect Mark Andrews to notch 4.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.. With a remarkable 16.7% Target% (84th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews has been as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a colossal 64.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 6th-worst in the league.. This year, the porous Patriots pass defense has given up a whopping 77.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-highest rate in the NFL.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs o38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 43.93 (Over)

Best Odds

o38.5 -110

Pick made: 7 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o41.5 -110

o38.5 -110

o41.5 -114

o38.5 -110

o41.5 -113

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game.. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. The New England offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Stefon Diggs's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 73.7% to 83.2%.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Drake Maye o21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 28.71 (Over)

Best Odds

o21.5 -110

Pick made: 7 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o22.5 -110

o21.5 -110

o21.5 -114

o21.5 -120

Rushing Yards

Derrick Henry u79.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 71.44 (Under)

Best Odds

u79.5 -110

Pick made: 7 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u79.5 -113

u79.5 -110

u79.5 -114

u79.5 -110

u79.5 -117

Given the game dynamics and approaches of each team, the model projects this game (with an average of 26.85 seconds per play) will play at the 14th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 51.9 plays per game.. Derrick Henry's 79.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season shows a meaningful drop-off in his rushing skills over last season's 118.0 figure.. Derrick Henry's 5.1 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a meaningful reduction in his running talent over last season's 6.2 figure.. The opposing side have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 91.0 per game) against the Patriots defense this year.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Lamar Jackson o29.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 34.48 (Over)

Best Odds

o29.5 -109

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o29.5 -109

o29.5 -110

o30.5 -114

o29.5 -110

o30.5 -114

With a 3-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to run on 48.1% of their downs: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect Lamar Jackson to accumulate 6.5 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.. With a terrific record of 2.20 yards-after-contact (81st percentile), Lamar Jackson stands as one of the leading rushing quarterbacks in the league this year.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, New England's DE corps has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in football. in football.

-109 at DraftKings

Rushing Attempts

TreVeyon Henderson u13.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)

Projection 12.19 (Under)

Best Odds

u13.5 +100

Pick made: 20 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u13.5 -123

u13.5 +100

u13.5 -136

u12.5 +105

u13.5 -112

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game.. The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 5th-least run-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 36.0% run rate.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's unit has been terrific this year, ranking as the 6th-best in the NFL.

+100 at bet365

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

There are no Consensus Picks for this match up at the moment. Visit our Consensus to see all Consensus picks.

Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

More Picks

Spread

'simoncald' is picking New England to cover (+3.0)

simoncald is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-5-0) and +4550 units on the season.

Spread

BAL

Spread

+3.0 -108

-2.5 -121

Total

'simoncald' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

simoncald is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-5-0) and +4550 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

47.5 -126

48.5 -114

Total

'Alexmaldonado' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

Alexmaldonado is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

47.5 -126

48.5 -114

Spread

'Alexmaldonado' is picking Baltimore to cover (-1.5)

Alexmaldonado is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Spread

BAL

Spread

+3.0 -108

-2.5 -121

Spread

'interfly' is picking Baltimore to cover (-2.5)

interfly is #9 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (8-6-0) and +5600 units on the season.

Spread

BAL

Spread

+3.0 -108

-2.5 -121

Total

'interfly' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

interfly is #9 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (8-6-0) and +5600 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

47.5 -126

48.5 -114

Spread

'nfl_brosuf' is picking Baltimore to cover (-2.5)

nfl_brosuf is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Spread

BAL

Spread

+3.0 -108

-2.5 -121

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NE @ BAL Picks

Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

'simoncald' is picking New England to cover (+3.0)

'simoncald' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

'Alexmaldonado' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

'Alexmaldonado' is picking Baltimore to cover (-1.5)

'interfly' is picking Baltimore to cover (-2.5)

'interfly' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

'nfl_brosuf' is picking Baltimore to cover (-2.5)

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New England Patriots
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