New England Patriots
Picks

2nd in AFC East (1 - 1 - 0)

Next Game

at

Sun, Sep 21 13:00 ET

PIT @ NE Picks

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PIT -1.0 (-101)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 days ago

I’m anticipating marked improvement on defense from The Black and Golf in Week 3. Pittsburgh allowed the eighth-fewest points per game and ninth-lowest EPA per play while ranking third in PFF defense grade last season, after all.

Passing Yards

Aaron Rodgers u230.5 Passing Yards (-118)

Projection 219 (Under)

Best Odds

u230.5 -118

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u222.5 -113

u224.5 -114

u230.5 -118

u224.5 -115

The Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.21 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

Receiving Yards

Pat Freiermuth o23.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 32.2 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 58.8 plays per game.. In this game, Pat Freiermuth is projected by the model to land in the 78th percentile among TEs with 4.4 targets.. With an extraordinary 16.2% Target Rate (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Pat Freiermuth ranks as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.. As it relates to air yards, Pat Freiermuth ranks in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 28.0 per game.

Receiving Yards

Rhamondre Stevenson o13.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 16.9 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.2% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have 128.6 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.. Rhamondre Stevenson has run a route on 48.0% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.. The Steelers pass defense has displayed weak efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, allowing 7.29 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the league.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Hunter Henry o36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 40.5 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.2% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have 128.6 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.. Our trusted projections expect Hunter Henry to earn 5.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.. In regards to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the lofty 95th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a remarkable 46.0 per game.

-114 at FanDuel

Rushing Yards

Jaylen Warren o52.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Projection 66.4 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 58.8 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Jaylen Warren is projected by the projection model to place in the 93rd percentile among running backs with 17.7 rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast Jaylen Warren to be a more important option in his team's running game in this week's contest (64.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (28.8% in games he has played).. Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-most adjusted yards in football (127 per game) vs. the Patriots defense since the start of last season.

Rushing Yards

Rhamondre Stevenson o42.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Projection 49.7 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have 128.6 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.. Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 51.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (76th percentile).. The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst DT corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

-114 at FanDuel

Rushing Yards

Drake Maye o24.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Projection 28.1 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have 128.6 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst DT corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

-112 at DraftKings

Rushing Attempts

Jaylen Warren o13.5 Rushing Attempts (-114)

Projection 16.3 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 58.8 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Jaylen Warren is projected by the projection model to place in the 93rd percentile among running backs with 17.7 rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast Jaylen Warren to be a more important option in his team's running game in this week's contest (64.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (28.8% in games he has played).

-114 at FanDuel

Consensus Picks

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66% picking Pittsburgh

66% 66%

34% 34%

Total Picks PIT 538, NE 272

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PIT

NE

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Top User Picks

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'DBM' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

DBM is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'DBM' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Over (42.5)

DBM is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'miacity' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

miacity is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'miacity' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Over (44.0)

miacity is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'BigBoss19' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

BigBoss19 is #3 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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PIT

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'BigBoss19' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Over (42.5)

BigBoss19 is #3 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'nfl_brosuf' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Under (44.5)

nfl_brosuf is #4 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'nfl_brosuf' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

nfl_brosuf is #4 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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PIT

NE

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'heynowtom1' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

heynowtom1 is #5 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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PIT

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'heynowtom1' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Under (44.0)

heynowtom1 is #5 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'OGScotty' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-1.0)

OGScotty is #8 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'QCAN' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Over (42.5)

QCAN is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'QCAN' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

QCAN is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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PIT

NE

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'gophishn' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Under (44.5)

gophishn is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'gophishn' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

gophishn is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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PIT

NE

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