New England Patriots

Picks

Stefon Diggs has incentive money firmly in play with three games remaining. He’s three receptions shy of a $500K bonus and 13 catches away from another $500K, putting a total of $1 million on the line. Diggs has recorded at least three receptions in all but one game this season but has been quieter recently in a pair of run-heavy matchups against the Bills and Giants. That could change this week against Baltimore, a defense allowing the sixth-most receptions to wide receivers. If Diggs wants to make a real push toward that second incentive at 80 catches, the volume needs to start building now. With the Jets up next and a Week 18 matchup against Miami that could turn run-heavy if playoff positioning is settled, this sets up as a spot where Diggs is motivated and the matchup finally cooperates.

Henry’s output dipped a bit toward the end of November but the Ravens’ battering ram has rumbled for 94 and 100 yards in his last two outings. Henry always makes it a December to remember, with the running back doing his best work in the home stretch of the schedule. For his career, Henry averages 5.17 yards per carry in December and puts up almost 93 yards rushing per game in the final month of the regular season. Since losing standout DT Milton Williams, New England has gone from a Top 8 defense in EPA allowed per carry and opponent success rate per run to 30th and 31st in those advanced metrics since Week 11. Player projections for Henry range from 71 yards to a high of 83.5, with the bulk of those forecasts sitting above his current rushing yards total. And if carrying Baltimore to the postseason isn’t motivation enough, Henry takes on his former head coach Mike Vrabel.

Who says no to a primetime quarterback rushing touchdown from an MVP candidate? The New England QB is coming off a four-carry, 43-yard rushing effort and scored twice on runs from seven and eight yards out. He goes from facing Josh Allen to Lamar Jackson, so the pace and adrenaline should remain high on Sunday night. Over the last three games, Maye has three red-zone carries and has turned two of them into touchdowns. That matches Rhamondre Stevenson’s usage and is just one fewer carry than TreVeyon Henderson. Coming off a two-TD game, his +360 price is a four-week high and well above his +260 average across that stretch, making it a strong buy.