New England Patriots

Picks

Austin Hooper missed Week 11 due to a concussion but was back in action versus the Bengals last Sunday. The tight end grabbed three of four passes his way for 39 yards – his biggest effort of 2025. Hooper can build on that in Week 13, especially with TE1 Hunter Henry nursing a toe injury heading into Monday Night Football. While Henry is expected to play against the Giants, he was limited in practice this week. New England runs the fifth highest rate of 12 personnel and will even throw out three tight ends (sixth highest 13 personnel rate), which it might do more on Monday considering the loss of standout LT Will Campbell. All of Hooper’s Week 13 forecasts come in above his receiving yards total of 10.5 O/U, with most at 12-plus and a ceiling of 15 yards receiving. He’s finished with 11 or more yards in seven of his 11 games this season, including three of his last four.

Ever since Mike Kafka (now interim head coach) took over play calling, Tracy has emerged as a potent piece of the New York passing game. It makes sense considering Tracy started his college career as a wide receiver before transitioning to running back at Purdue. He’s drawn three or more targets in four of his last five games and in seven of his 10 games overall. And since fellow RB Cam Skattebo went down, Tracy has caught three-plus balls in three of his last four outings (at least an 11% target share in three of those four), including seven catches for 119 total receiving yards the last two weeks. Player projections for Week 13 call for between 2.3 and 2.8 receptions for Tracy versus New England.

Game script for Monday’s non-conference contest says the Patriots are playing with a lead in the second half, which lends itself to plenty of handoffs and a likely share of duties in the backfield – including inside the red zone. Stevenson recorded only 22 snaps in his first game back from a painful toe injury that cost him three games. He received six carries for a total of five yards versus the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12 (along with two targets for one five-yard reception), however, three of those seven touches did come inside the red zone. He faces a New York defense getting steamrolled by running backs, especially over the past five weeks. The Giants have given up the most rushing yards per contest since Week 8. New York lugs the second worst defensive red zone TD rate to Foxborough (71.43%) and has allowed the second most touchdowns to rival running backs this season.

Jaxson Dart returns from concussion protocol after missing two games in which Jameis Winston led the offense to 47 points. Most of that scoring came early, and with Dart back, the offense may start slower. He had averaged 45 rushing yards over his last seven games, but his scrambling should be limited coming off injury, and he’ll be surrounded by backups at most positions. New England scored 26 points last week despite red-zone struggles, and OC Josh McDaniels hinted at more creativity. The Patriots also rank fifth in first-half scoring. The Giants’ defense is banged up, with Dexter Lawrence and both starting linebackers unlikely to play, offsetting New England’s O-line issues. With Dart easing in and New York’s offense likely muted, the Patriots should finish drives against the league’s 31st-ranked red-zone defense.

Only the Steelers allow more receiving yards to opposing wide receivers than the Giants, who have also conceded 12 WR TDs which ranks as tied for the eighth most in football. It also helps that it's Drake Maye and a handful of high-priced WRs on Monday night. It was Mack Hollins who had the most WR targets (six) in Week 12 vs. the Bengals and his 78% route share paced all New England offensive players. He is also tied for the WR lead in RZ targets since Week 9, as Stefon Diggs' usage is oddly trending down. Do I feel confident with a Mack Hollins TD to wrap up Week 13? Not really, but the usage and price are the most important things here. The matchup doesn't get any easier either. I'd play this to +260. 

The Pats drafted Henderson early in the second round after a fantastic career at Ohio State. Henderson broke out with a 75-yard performance against the Browns in Week 8 and had a career-high 147 rushing yards versus the Bucs in Week 10. There was some concern that his role would decline following the return of Rhamondre Stevenson last week. However, Stevenson finished with six carries for just five yards while Henderson logged 18 carries for 66 yards. This week Henderson and the Pats face a Giants squad that has been getting gashed on the ground. The Giants are dead-last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (157.2), yards allowed per carry (5.9), and DVOA against the run. 

The Giants haven’t won on the road all season, and the Pats have rolled off nine straight wins with quarterback Drake Maye pacing the NFL in adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage during the run. Plus, New York entered Week 12 ranked 28th in defensive DVOA and has allowed the third-most points per game.