New England Patriots
Picks

1st in AFC East (11 - 3 - 0)

Next Game

NENew England

BALBaltimore

Sun, Dec 21 20:20 ET

NE @ BAL Picks

NFL Picks

Passing Yards

Drake Maye u240.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Projection 232.2 (Under)

Best Odds

u240.5 -112

Pick made: 4 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u240.5 -112

u228.5 -110

u240.5 -114

u232.5 -115

u238.5 -115

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the best safety corps in football this year in defending receivers.

-112 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Derrick Henry o5.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 10.81 (Over)

Best Odds

o5.5 -110

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o5.5 -110

Derrick Henry has totaled a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.2%) vs. RBs this year (85.2%).

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Zay Flowers o63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 71.54 (Over)

Best Odds

o62.5 -114

Pick made: 19 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o63.5 -110

o62.5 -114

o62.5 -115

o62.5 -117

In this week's game, Zay Flowers is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 92nd percentile among WRs with 8.7 targets.. Zay Flowers has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 29.6% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. When it comes to air yards, Zay Flowers grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among wideouts this year, averaging a superb 71.0 per game.. Zay Flowers rates as one of the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 61.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.. This year, the anemic Patriots pass defense has given up a massive 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 10th-largest rate in football.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Hunter Henry o37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 43.21 (Over)

Best Odds

o36.5 -118

Pick made: 11 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o37.5 -110

o39.5 -114

o36.5 -118

o38.5 -114

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game.. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. The projections expect Hunter Henry to accrue 5.8 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. When it comes to air yards, Hunter Henry ranks in the towering 93rd percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a massive 42.0 per game.

-118 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs o34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 43.93 (Over)

Best Odds

o34.5 -110

Pick made: 14 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o34.5 -110

o41.5 -114

o39.5 -118

o40.5 -112

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game.. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. The New England offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Stefon Diggs's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 73.7% to 83.2%.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Derrick Henry u84.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 71.56 (Under)

Best Odds

u84.5 -110

Pick made: 14 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u84.5 -110

u79.5 -114

u80.5 -110

u80.5 -117

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have only 126.9 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 51.9 plays per game.. Derrick Henry's 79.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season shows a meaningful drop-off in his rushing skills over last season's 118.0 figure.. Derrick Henry's 5.1 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a meaningful reduction in his running talent over last season's 6.2 figure.. The opposing side have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 91.0 per game) against the Patriots defense this year.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Drake Maye o22.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 28.75 (Over)

Best Odds

o22.5 -110

Pick made: 14 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o22.5 -110

Rushing Yards

Lamar Jackson o28.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 34.11 (Over)

Best Odds

o28.5 -110

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o28.5 -110

o29.5 -115

With a 3-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to run on 48.0% of their downs: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect Lamar Jackson to accumulate 6.4 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.. With a terrific record of 2.20 yards-after-contact (81st percentile), Lamar Jackson stands as one of the leading rushing quarterbacks in the league this year.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, New England's DE corps has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in football. in football.

-110 at bet365

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

There are no Consensus Picks for this match up at the moment. Visit our Consensus to see all Consensus picks.

Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

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Total

'Alexmaldonado' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

Alexmaldonado is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

47.5 -126

48.5 -116

Spread

'Alexmaldonado' is picking Baltimore to cover (-1.5)

Alexmaldonado is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Spread

BAL

Spread

+3.0 -109

-2.5 -121

Spread

'interfly' is picking Baltimore to cover (-2.5)

interfly is #9 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (8-6-0) and +5600 units on the season.

Spread

BAL

Spread

+3.0 -109

-2.5 -121

Total

'interfly' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

interfly is #9 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (8-6-0) and +5600 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

47.5 -126

48.5 -116

Spread

'nfl_brosuf' is picking Baltimore to cover (-2.5)

nfl_brosuf is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Spread

BAL

Spread

+3.0 -109

-2.5 -121

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Next Game

NE @ BAL Picks

Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

'Alexmaldonado' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

'Alexmaldonado' is picking Baltimore to cover (-1.5)

'interfly' is picking Baltimore to cover (-2.5)

'interfly' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

'nfl_brosuf' is picking Baltimore to cover (-2.5)

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New England Patriots
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