New England Patriots

Picks

If you measure movement based on look-ahead lines and the current point spread for the AFC title game, Bo Nix's injury is worth as much as a touchdown to the spread. However, he's much easier to replace based on the simplicity of this Denver passing game. The Broncos don't throw beyond the sticks much and backup QB Jarrett Stidham isn't that much of a downgrade. Mix in Denver's elite defense, the Patriots' offensive struggles vs. Houston, as well and home field, thin air and coaching edge owned by the Broncos, and this game will be much tighter than the +5.5 spread would indicate. 

This spread has moved seven points from the look-ahead line due to Jarret Stidham replacing an injured Bo Nix at QB. That looks like an overreaction, given Stidham's familiarity with this offense and his solid track record.  Across four career NFL starts, Stidham has completed 62.5% of his passes for 270 passing yards per game with a passer rating of 89.7. He won't be asked to do too much since an elite defense anchors the Broncos. They boast the league's best pass rush, which will make things tough for Patriots pivot Drake Maye, who has been sacked a whopping 57 times.

New England has covered in 13 of its past 16 games, and after ranking eighth in defensive DVOA dating back to Week 14 of the regular season, the Pats held the Houston Texans to just 16 points and 241 total yards of offense in the Divisional Round. With Denver turning to backup Jarrett Stidham, I think the market is undervaluing the Pats again, and I’m expecting the New England defense to hold Denver in check.

Before the Nix injury, the look-ahead total for this AFC title game pairing was 45.5. Books adjusted that number to 40.5 ahead of the Patriots’ win over Houston on Sunday. Books opened the official total at 41.5 points. 

The Patriots benefited from an error-plagued performance from Texans QB C.J. Stroud, which helped their offensive effort appear stronger than it really was. New England scored a defensive touchdown, averaged only 4.0 yards per play, and had three turnovers of its own against Houston’s top-tier defense.

The Broncos present more of the same. Denver ranks among the top stop units in the land and will lean heavily on that defense to keep the team within striking distance next Sunday. The Broncos' playbook was conservative with Nix, but it will be very vanilla with Stidham as it tries to lure the Pats into a low-scoring grinder.