Philadelphia Eagles

Picks

Barkley has cashed the Over in rushing yards in two of his last four games, and he just ran for 83 yards last weekend. 

Lamb had 110 yards receiving against the Eagles in the season opener. He's also cashed the Over in two of his previous four appearances. 

Hurts has cashed the Under in passing yards in three straight, and he only threw for 152 yards against Dallas in Week 1. 

For his career, Goedert , naturally gets up to play Dallas. He’s posted 30 or more receiving yards in five of his last seven matchups with the NFC East rival while going for 40-plus in four of those clashes. This year’s Dallas defense is different, however. New coordinator Matt Eberflus runs a lot more zone coverage than his predecessors in Big D, utilizing two high safeties at a high rate. While that can take away some deeper looks, it does allow savvy TEs like Goedert to find seams in the zone underneath. The Cowboys have given up the sixth most receptions to tight ends so far, which has led to the 13th most receiving yards to the position. Week 12 player projections all sit well beyond Goedert’s current receiving yards prop, ranging from 38 yards to a ceiling of 48 yards on Sunday, with the bulk of models at 44-plus.

I’m not interested in chasing Cowboys touchdown props given how shaky their defense has looked. Jalen Hurts is getting nearly every goal-line carry, and he should see even more work indoors at Jerry World, where opponents are averaging around 30 points per game this season. Hurts scored the Eagles’ only touchdown last week and is one of just two quarterbacks with 20+ red-zone carries. His efficiency could easily tick up — he has only five touchdowns on 10 carries inside the 5-yard line. If the Eagles push toward 30 points, Hurts has a real chance to find the end zone more than once in a big divisional matchup.

The Cowboys faced an interior foe off a bye on MNF but also played an emotionally charged game after the tragic passing of DE Marshawn Kneeland during that bye week. That does line up a letdown, especially on a short week. This Cowboys offense has little time to prepare for Vic Fangio’s schemes. Philadelphia’s defense has been the backbone of this current winning streak, shutting down the Lions and Packers to a combined 16 points. The Eagles have quickly climbed the defensive metrics since Week 7, sitting tops in EPA allowed per play in those four outings. Even with this game on the fast track of AT&T Stadium, Philly’s defense will deliver.

Maybe the bye week and defensive acquisitions ahead of the trade deadline will help the Dallas stop unit, but I’m not anticipating significant improvement, and Philadelphia is ripe for a breakout on offense following consecutive low-scoring wins. Of course, the Cowboys have also played to the Over in five of their past six games and average 29.2 points per game while allowing 30.8. I expect this total to climb leading into Sunday afternoon, too.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.. Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (58.9% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Dallas Cowboys.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.. Jalen Hurts has been one of the top touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 1.60 per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (76.1% Adjusted Completion%).. This year, the feeble Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed a colossal 2.30 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the league.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.. As it relates to air yards, Saquon Barkley ranks in the lofty 78th percentile among running backs this year, accruing an impressive 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).. Saquon Barkley's 19.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 92nd percentile for RBs.. With a fantastic rate of 0.20 per game through the air (92nd percentile), Saquon Barkley places among the leading receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to running backs this year.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (76.1% Adjusted Completion%).. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Dallas's safety corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the league.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.. Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in football (271.0 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.. The Cowboys pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, allowing 8.90 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in football.. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Dallas's safety corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the league.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.. Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. In throwing a colossal 36.8 pass attempts per game this year, Dak Prescott places among the top QBs in the league (95th percentile) by this metric.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.. In this week's game, Dallas Goedert is predicted by the projections to rank in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.2 targets.. With a sizeable 20.6% Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert ranks among the TEs with the highest volume in football.. As it relates to air yards, Dallas Goedert grades out in the towering 93rd percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a staggering 42.0 per game.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.. In this game, A.J. Brown is forecasted by the predictive model to place in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.4 targets.. This year, the feeble Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered a whopping 171.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.. This year, the deficient Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a whopping 10.18 yards.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.. Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. The Eagles defense has given up the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (42.0) to running backs this year.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.. Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. In this contest, Jake Ferguson is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 89th percentile among tight ends with 6.1 targets.