Philadelphia Eagles

Picks

The Eagles rank 21st in rushing yards allowed and in yards per attempt allowed. Cook has been destroying defenses this season and has a great matchup here. 

The Bills are excellent at defending short and quick passing as well as play action passes and that is where Goedert gets most of his work. 

Josh Allen has at least 7 rush attempts in each of his last four games and the Eagles struggle to defend quarterback scrambles. 

Over the past three games, Knox has seen an uptick in usage and has over two red zone targets per game on average, more than Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid combined.

Buffalo could have a tough time throwing the ball against a strong Eagles pass defense. That should lead to the Bills leaning on Pro Bowl RB James Cook. Cook leads the NFL with 1,532 rushing yards while adding another 288 yards on 32 receptions. The Eagles are 21st in the league in defensive rush success rate and rank 26th in receiving yards allowed to running backs. Cook has racked up at least 110 rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine games and should hit that mark again.

Knox leads the team in RZ targets over the past three weeks and has a $100,000 incentive to score one more TD this season.

Barkley has scored in three consecutive games and the Bills have given up the second most touchdowns to opposing RBs in the league.

Buffalo has been strong against tight ends, but the price here makes this worth a look. Harold Fannin found the end zone against this defense last week on six targets and four catches, showing that scoring opportunities can still exist at the position. Dallas Goedert doesn’t need to win as a traditional inline tight end to get there. We saw that in Week 15, when both of his touchdowns came on creative usage near the goal line, including a shuffle pass in close. After that two-touchdown game, Goedert was priced around +190 last week. He scored again, yet his touchdown number has somehow drifted roughly 45 cents longer in a spot where Philadelphia may need more from him and the passing game. At +200 or better, Goedert remains a buy in virtually any matchup.

The Eagles didn't pull away from the Washington Commanders in Week 16 until third-string QB Josh Johnson entered the game, and Philly ranked 27th in offensive DVOA while generating the ninth-lowest EPA per play over the prior six weeks. So, with the Bills rattling off four consecutive wins and sporting a 6-1 record at Highmark Stadium, I don't think the Eagles can put enough points on the board to cover the number in Week 17.