Philadelphia Eagles

Picks

Brown is a matchup nightmare, and I fully expect this total to climb leading into Super Bowl Sunday. This is tied for his second-lowest total in this market dating back to the regular season, and he turned his eight targets into six receptions and 96 yards against the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game with just two targets in the second half. I don’t envision the Eagles offense being able to take its foot off the pedal against Kansas City, and Brown should have opportunities to pad his stat line with the Chiefs keyed on Philly running back Saquon Barkley. Of course, Brown also paced all pass-catchers in ESPN's receiver scores while ranking third in PFF receiving grade among wideouts.

With a two-week break before Super Bowl LIX, this is the healthiest Jalen Hurts is going to be in a long, long while. The Eagles dual-threat QB was nursing a tender knee in the NFC Championship and didn't break any big runs in that blowout win. However, Hurts has rushed for 36 yards or more in 10 of his last 12 games overall and will need to be a big part of this rushing playbook to edge the Chiefs. Kansas City will also come with plenty of pass pressure and Hurts will be forced to scramble. He put up 70 yards rushing against Spags' defense in Super Bowl LVII and early projections for Super Bowl LIX call for close to 43 yards on the ground from Hurts on Feb. 9.

The rookie wideout shined in the AFC Championship game and took two more carries for 16 yards. This is not on offense with an alpha back and the WR has had multiple carries in four of his last six games. Running into that Eagles front seven is a tough grind so Matt Nagy and Andy Reid might have to get a little more creative in their game plan vs. this defense. Rashee Rice had two carries in last year's finals for the Chiefs and Skyy Moore got running work vs. the Eagles in 2022. Getting their fastest players involved in the running game is a staple of this offense and expect the 4.21-40 Worthy to see one or two carries.  

With the opening line of Kansas City -1.5, there’s a nasty half-point hook on the favorite on the other side of the key number of -1 — the seventh-most frequent margin in the NFL. You can avoid all this ATS nonsense and simply take KC to win outright, shopping for the lowest moneyline on the board. As of Sunday’s SBLIX openers, that’s -120. Kansas City brings a lot to the table, owning the coaching, experience, and quarterback edge over the Eagles, who the Chiefs defeated 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII. There will be interest in the underdog’s moneyline — there always is when you have short spreads. You may see the Chiefs' outright price shorten by a couple of cents at some point in the next 14 days, but you can always bet Kansas City again at the discount later in the week.