Pittsburgh Steelers

Picks

Aaron Rodgers ranks dead-last in the NFL in average intended air yards (5.9) and has been heavily reliant on short throws to backs and tight ends. Kenneth Gainwell is Pittsburgh's most reliable receiver out of the backfield and has been taking the majority of the RB snaps on passing downs. He has logged 25+ receiving yards in four of his last five games which includes a seven-catch, 81-yard performance against the Bengals. The Ravens are 26th in DVOA against running backs while allowing 39.1 receiving yards per game to the position — the sixth-highest total in the league. 

Lamar Jackson has been dealing with multiple lower-body injuries that have robbed him of his usual mobility and elusiveness. The Bengals sacked Jackson three times last week and the Browns had five sacks against him in Week 11. He was sacked just once by the Jets in Week 12, but was tackled multiple times just past the line of scrimmage. He'll have a hard time escaping a strong Pittsburgh pass rush led by T.J. Watt. The All-Pro outside linebacker has picked up at least half a sack in seven of his last 10 contests. He also has a history of wrecking the Ravens, racking up 17 sacks in 16 career games against Baltimore.

Zay Flowers is coming off an ugly game where he reeled in just two of seven targets for six yards. That said, he's in a good spot to bounce back against the Steelers on Sunday. Prior to last week, Flowers had racked up more than 55.5 receiving yards in seven of his previous eight games. He's Baltimore's best receiver by a wide margin and Pittsburgh's defense has been a passing funnel. The Steelers are 25th in the NFL in opponent passing rate (59.6%) while allowing a league-high 171.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.

Jackson hasn’t had a rushing yards total this low once since the beginning of the 2024 season, and while his recent numbers on the ground don’t jump off the page, he’s still topped this number in two of his past four games and has averaged 6.2 carries per since returning from injury in Week 9. Jackson is nursing an ankle injury, but with Pittsburgh blitzing at the sixth-highest rate in the league, I’m expecting multiple scrambles for chunk gains. Plus, coming off the mini bye with a Thursday game in Week 13 is a bonus.

Pittsburgh leaned on Jaylen Warren more last week than they had in recent games, giving him the majority of the red-zone work. He had the team’s only carry inside the 5 — which he converted for a TD — and added two more red-zone targets. Even though the Steelers alternated drives with Kenneth Gainwell, Warren consistently got the first crack and the valuable touches near the goal line. I saw it firsthand while chasing a Gainwell TD at +220 and watching Warren outcarry him 2:1. The quarterback situation is shaky, but against a Baltimore team that’s lost its defensive edge and just gave up plenty of production to Bengals running backs, Warren should be asked to handle a heavy workload and finish drives. Warren was -155 just four games ago.

Baltimore had rolled off five consecutive wins while ranking eighth in offensive DVOA and 12th in defensive DVOA before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13, so I like the Ravens to respond in a pivotal AFC North game against the visiting Steelers. Pittsburgh has dropped five of seven, and quarterback Aaron Rogders hasn’t connected for multiple touchdown passes since Week 8. The Ravens roll at M&T Bank Stadium and cover the number in Week 14.