Pittsburgh Steelers Picks

Pick made: 23 hours ago

o64.5 -114

o63.5 -118

o64.5 -121

The Bengals are 29th in the league in defensive dropback success rate. This is a great matchup for D.K. Metcalf who has racked up more than 80 receiving yards in three of five games this year. Pittsburgh's No. 2 WR Calvin Austin III sat out Sunday with a shoulder injury and is trending towards missing this week as well. Without Austin in the lineup, The Steelers relied on multiple tight ends and running backs in the passing game and Metcalf was the only WR to see the ball. The 6-foot-4, 229-pound wideout was targeted a season-high nine times and reeled in four of them for 95 yards. He should have another high target game against a vulnerable Bengals secondary.

Passing Yards

Aaron Rodgers o216.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

o217.5 -113

o217.5 -115

o218.5 -115

Rodgers is starting to find a rhythm, and Cincinnati has shown zero ability to slow down opposing quarterbacks. Jordan Love just threw 259 passing yards against them. Rodgers will follow suit on TNF and have a big game through the air.

Sacks

Nick Herbig o0.5 Sacks (-102)

Best Odds

o0.5 -102

Pick made: yesterday

o0.5 -102

Despite primarily playing as a backup last year, Herbig notched 5.5 sacks while ranking fourth among edge rushers in pass rush grade per PFF. This year he has been even better, picking up 4.5 sacks in his last three games while leading the league in pass rush win rate. Even when Alex Highsmith returned to the lineup after three-game absence last week, Herbig still logged 50 snaps which was neck-and-neck with Highsmith and T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh's pass rush should feast against the Bengals who are 30th in pass block win rate and have the immobile Joe Flacco under center.

Game Prop

Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (Yes: +180)

Best Odds

+143

Pick made: yesterday

+143

+142

+130

Last season when the Steelers came to Cincinnatti they dropped 44 points and 410 total yards with Russell Wilson at QB and this time around the Bengals defense might be worse. Pittsburgh getting to 20 shouldn't be a sweat, but don't sleep on the Bengals offense with Joe Flacco at QB. It took them a while to get going in his debut last week, but they scored 18 second-half points in Green Bay against a Packers team that has one of the better defenses in the league.

Score a Touchdown

Ja'Marr Chase Score a Touchdown (Yes: +145)

Best Odds

+140

Pick made: yesterday

+140

+135

+140

Chase has scored three times the past two weeks while receiving 22 targets, including three red-zone looks. He's also found pay dirt five times across six career games against Pittsburgh, and I expect Chase to be force fed the football again under the bright lights of Thursday Night Football.

Score a Touchdown

DK Metcalf Score a Touchdown (Yes: +135)

Best Odds

+155

Pick made: yesterday

+155

+135

+150

+140

Metcalf has garnered a team-high 31 targets for a 23.1% target share. He’s also scored in four consecutive games and sports a league-high 11.6 yards after the catch per reception. This matchup checks out, too.
The Cincinnati defense has surrendered a healthy 8.36 yards per target to opposing wideouts and ranks 26th in PFF coverage grade with the fifth-worst DVOA against the pass.

Read Full Analysis

Score a Touchdown

Jaylen Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: -120)

Projection 0.74 (Yes)

Best Odds

-115

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

-115

-135

-121

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the model to call 65.7 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.. While Jaylen Warren has been responsible for 86.7% of his offense's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Pittsburgh's rushing attack near the end zone this week at 53.2%.. Jaylen Warren has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 11.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 86th percentile among running backs.. Jaylen Warren's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 89.6% to 92.9%.. Jaylen Warren grades out in the 88th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.20 per game.

-115 at DraftKings

Receptions Made

Ja'Marr Chase u6.5 Receptions Made (+125)

Projection 6.31 (Under)

Best Odds

u7.5 -145

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u7.5 -145

u6.5 +102

u6.5 +125

u6.5 +105

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are projected by the predictive model to call just 62.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.. The Bengals have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 50.3 plays per game.. The Bengals offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Ja'Marr Chase's receiving talent has declined this season, compiling a measly 6.1 adjusted catches compared to 7.5 last season.. As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's collection of CBs has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.

-145 at DraftKings

Passing Touchdowns

Aaron Rodgers u1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105)

Projection 1.33 (Under)

Best Odds

u1.5 +105

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

u1.5 +103

u1.5 -102

u1.5 +105

u1.5 -108

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 5.5 points.. At the moment, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (53.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. The Steelers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 49.6 plays per game.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.

+105 at BetMGM

Passing Yards

Aaron Rodgers o216.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Projection 229.95 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 days ago

EV Model Rating

o217.5 -113

o217.5 -115

o218.5 -115

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the model to call 65.7 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.. Aaron Rodgers's 68.7% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a material boost in his passing precision over last year's 63.8% figure.. This year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals defense has yielded a massive 273.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 2nd-most in football.. This year, the poor Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a monstrous 8.44 yards.. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been terrible this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Jaylen Warren o16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 23.55 (Over)

Best Odds

o16.5 -110

Pick made: 10 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o18.5 -110

o16.5 -114

o16.5 -110

o16.5 -118

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the model to call 65.7 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.. In this game, Jaylen Warren is anticipated by the predictive model to land in the 82nd percentile among RBs with 4.1 targets.. With a sizeable 13.0% Target Rate (87th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren stands as one of the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads in football.. Jaylen Warren rates as one of the leading pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a remarkable 25.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.. This year, the porous Bengals defense has been gouged for a massive 49.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

-110 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Chase Brown o16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 20.61 (Over)

Best Odds

o16.5 -108

Pick made: 10 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o16.5 -108

o16.5 -114

o16.5 -115

o16.5 -113

The Cincinnati Bengals may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Joe Flacco.. The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals as the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.. In this week's contest, Chase Brown is expected by the model to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.4 targets.

-108 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Jonnu Smith o27.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 32.61 (Over)

Best Odds

o27.5 -113

Pick made: 14 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o27.5 -113

o27.5 -114

o28.5 -115

o27.5 -120

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the model to call 65.7 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects Jonnu Smith to accrue 5.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Jonnu Smith's 84.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a remarkable boost in his receiving skills over last season's 81.3% rate.. The Bengals defense has conceded the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (66.0) to tight ends this year.. This year, the feeble Cincinnati Bengals defense has yielded the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a colossal 8.48 yards.

-113 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf o64.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 68.76 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 10 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o64.5 -114

o63.5 -118

o64.5 -121

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the model to call 65.7 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.. In this week's contest, DK Metcalf is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.1 targets.. DK Metcalf's 68.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 61.0.. DK Metcalf rates as one of the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a remarkable 55.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.. This year, the deficient Bengals defense has given up a colossal 158.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 9th-most in the league.

-113 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

Aaron Rodgers o0.5 Rushing Yards (+130)

Projection 3.56 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +110

o1.5 +112

o0.5 -121

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 5.5 points.. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the model to call 65.7 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.. The opposing side have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (140 per game) against the Bengals defense this year.. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

+130 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Joe Flacco o0.5 Rushing Yards (+130)

Projection 1.63 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 10 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o0.5 +112

The Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 4th-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

+130 at BetMGM

Consensus Picks

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'Bazooks813973' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+4.0)

Bazooks813973 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.

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'Bazooks813973' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (43.0)

Bazooks813973 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.

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'ChiTownSteppers' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-5.5)

ChiTownSteppers is #1 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4950 units on the season.

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'ChiTownSteppers' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Under (43.5)

ChiTownSteppers is #1 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4950 units on the season.

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'bigsmoke21169' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+4.0)

bigsmoke21169 is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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'bigsmoke21169' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (43.0)

bigsmoke21169 is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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'Rossi35' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-4.0)

Rossi35 is #2 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4950 units on the season.

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'Rossi35' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Under (43.0)

Rossi35 is #2 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4950 units on the season.

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'stom5900' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (42.5)

stom5900 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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'stom5900' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+5.5)

stom5900 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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'fttrdoyle' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-4.0)

fttrdoyle is #3 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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'fttrdoyle' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (43.0)

fttrdoyle is #3 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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'IBetALot' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+5.5)

IBetALot is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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'Cartrevic' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-5.5)

Cartrevic is #4 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'IBetALot' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (43.5)

IBetALot is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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'Cartrevic' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (44.5)

Cartrevic is #4 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'Jhusagic' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+4.0)

Jhusagic is #5 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'Jhusagic' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (43.0)

Jhusagic is #5 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'livelywee55' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (43.0)

livelywee55 is #5 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3600 units on the season.

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'Mochiman' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-5.5)

Mochiman is #6 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'Mochiman' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (44.0)

Mochiman is #6 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'bamabilly' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-4.0)

bamabilly is #7 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'bamabilly' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (43.0)

bamabilly is #7 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'biggestgm' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Under (42.5)

biggestgm is #8 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'hothollynv' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+5.5)

hothollynv is #8 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'biggestgm' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+5.5)

biggestgm is #8 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'hothollynv' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Under (44.0)

hothollynv is #8 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'charro23' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+4.0)

charro23 is #9 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'charro23' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (43.0)

charro23 is #9 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'Ranman' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+5.5)

Ranman is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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'Ranman' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (43.5)

Ranman is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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