Pittsburgh Steelers

Picks

Even if the Browns employ a run-heavy gameplan, I'm not confident in Nick Chubb going Over 53.5 rushing yards vs a Steelers stop unit that ranks eighth in defensive rush EPA and holds opposing running backs to 3.9 yards per carry. Chubb has yet to surpass that number in four games, and he doesn't look anywhere near 100% since coming back from a torn ACL and MCL. That was the same knee that suffered a brutal injury in college, and it's fair to wonder if Chubb will ever be as explosive as he used to be. Chubb was on the field for just 30% of Cleveland's offensive snaps last week and had 11 carries, while backup Jerome Ford logged a 56% snap share with five carries. Chubb hasn't been able to find running room against the Saints, Chargers, and Ravens despite the downfield threat of Winston. With the Steelers able to load up the box and Chubb ceding carries to Ford, fade him here.

Winston has a strong arm but messy weather could affect his deep throws on TNF. The temperature is expected to be just above freezing, with showers that could turn into a wintry mix, but the biggest impact could be the wind off Lake Erie, with breezes projected to be in the 20 mph range. It won't help that the Steelers are seventh in the NFL in defensive dropback EPA while limiting opposing QBs to 6.4 yards per pass attempt. In addition, Cleveland's O-line allows pressure at the highest rate in the league, and LT Jedrick Wills is questionable while right tackle Dawand Jones broke his leg last week. Going up against T.J. Watt and a fierce Steelers pass rush, Winston might not have time to throw deep even if the wind dies down.