Pittsburgh Steelers

1st in AFC North (6 - 2 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Nov 15 20:20 ET

PIT @ CIN Picks

NFL Picks
Spread
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail PIT +3.5 (-104)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
Joe Osborne logo
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

The Bengals are getting plenty of love heading into Sunday night, but let's not forget they needed overtime to beat Tennessee at home just two weeks ago. Pittsburgh already handled Cincinnati in Week 3, averaging 7.0 yards per play to the Bengals' 6.3. The Steelers also have a significant rest advantage coming off their bye, while Cincinnati is returning from a game in Spain. Give me Pittsburgh to keep it tight. 

Spread
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail CIN -3.5 (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 days ago
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Bengals have allowed the fourth-lowest rushing success rate through three games out of their Week 6 bye, and the Cinny offense is clicking with 37.3 points per game and the highest EPA per dropback during the stretch. Pittsburgh entered its Week 9 bye relying on the running game while ranked 22nd in passing DVOA with the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback, so look for the Cincinnati defense to make enough stops for the offense to pull away in this critical AFC North bout.

Spread
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail PIT +3.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The Steelers are rested and ready, presenting the stiffest opposition the Bengals have drawn since their streak started. Cincinnati has sliced through the melted-butter stop units of Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee and Atlanta – all of which rank 22nd or worst in EPA allowed per play since Week 5. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has settled into its defensive schemes under new coordinator Patrick Graham. The Steelers sat 23rd in opponent success rate (46%) in the opening four games and have trimmed that allowance to 38.7% during this winning run.

Anytime Touchdown
Pat Freiermuth logo Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown (Yes: +317)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

I'm on Pat Freiermuth at 4.17x in one of the best tight end matchups in football and would play him down to 3.85x. The Steelers are coming off their bye and face a Cincinnati defense that allows the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends in the NFL. The Bengals are also returning from Spain without the benefit of a bye. The last time we saw this offense, Darnell Washington was getting more snaps, but Freiermuth still leads comfortably in target share and has double the air-yard share of his backup. Both players see plenty of red-zone work, but Freiermuth already has four red-zone touchdowns this season, tied for second among tight ends. He's the Pittsburgh TE I'm backing at this price.

Anytime Touchdown
Chase Brown logo Chase Brown Score a Touchdown (Yes: +117)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The Bengals running back hasn’t scored since Week 1 and had a receiving TD called back in Week 9’s win over Atlanta. Cincinnati’s passing attack has been so effective, Brown isn’t getting many red zone reps. But the Steelers pose a tough test on defense and the Bengals will have to grind out gains inside the 20-yard line. Brown is a great buy low option in the touchdown markets, with his pricing trimmed significantly. Forecast still give him around a 50% shot of finally finding paydirt on SNF.

Anytime Touchdown
Tee Higgins logo Tee Higgins Score a Touchdown (Yes: +117)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Jon Metler logo
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst

I price Tee Higgins closer to 53% to score against Pittsburgh, making 46% an appealing buy. The Steelers tend to shade coverage toward Ja'Marr Chase with safety help, leaving Higgins in isolated boundary matchups where Joe Burrow can exploit his size and ability to win jump balls.

Receiving Yards
Mike Gesicki logo Mike Gesicki o24.5 Receiving Yards (-104)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

On the season, Pittsburgh has allowed the 15th most receiving yards to rival TEs despite giving up the fifth fewest targets. FTN rates the Steelers DVOA vs tight ends at 24th among all teams. Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki caught all three balls his way for 37 yards in the Week 3 matchup with the Steelers. Projections for Sunday night are very bullish for Gesicki, with all models north of 25 yards and a ceiling flirting with 40 yards. My number comes out to 33+ yards in Week 10.

3 LEG PARLAY
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
PIT +3.5
Spread
Chase Brown profile picture
Chase Brown Score a Touchdown (Yes)
Anytime Touchdown
Mike Gesicki profile picture
Mike Gesicki o24.5 Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards
Bet now
Pick made: yesterday
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Pittsburgh has the defensive prowess and ball-hogging run game to take the air out of the Bengals’ high-flying attack. The Steelers covered as a dog versus Cincy in Week 3 and is 9-3 ATS in its last dozen games catching points from its AFC North foe. Chase Brown almost snapped his touchdown drought last week in Spain but had a receiving score called back. His TD forecasts sit around 50% for Week 10, with Brown a threat to run or catch for six points. Mike Gesicki has posted 37, 53, and 68 yards versus the rival Steelers in his time with Cincinnati. With Burrow forced to check down more, the tight end sees plenty of work and his projections sit as high as 39+ yards on SNF.

Passing Yards
Joe Burrow logo
Joe Burrow o285.5 Passing Yards (-120) Projection 327.59 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 36 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2. . Joe Burrow's 273.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a meaningful growth in his passing talent over last year's 196.0 mark.. Opposing offenses have passed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (255.0 per game) versus the Steelers defense this year.
Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers u239.5 Passing Yards (-115) Projection 228.54 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.. Aaron Rodgers's 62.0% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material reduction in his throwing precision over last year's 67.1% mark.
Rushing Yards
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o0.5 Rushing Yards (-111) Projection 3.55 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. This year, the formidable Cincinnati Bengals run defense has allowed a feeble 4.68 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 24th-smallest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.
Rushing Yards
Joe Burrow logo
Joe Burrow o6.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Projection 11.59 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. Joe Burrow's 12.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season indicates a remarkable progression in his running proficiency over last season's 5.0 figure.. Joe Burrow's running efficiency has gotten better this season, notching 5.93 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.53 mark last season.
Rushing Yards
Chase Brown logo
Chase Brown o46.5 Rushing Yards (-114) Projection 50.58 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. Among all RBs, Chase Brown ranks in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 61.7% of the workload in his offense's ground game.. With an excellent record of 44.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (80th percentile), Chase Brown ranks as one of the leading RBs in the league this year.
Rushing Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren u65.5 Rushing Yards (-120) Projection 61.04 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run on 36.8% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected by the projection model to call just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Receiving Yards
Mike Gesicki logo
Mike Gesicki o24.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Projection 36.49 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 38 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (59.6% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (48.6%).. Mike Gesicki's 33.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a significant boost in his receiving proficiency over last year's 22.0 rate.. This year, the shaky Steelers pass defense has surrendered a whopping 82.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren u25.5 Receiving Yards (-120) Projection 17.80 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.. Jaylen Warren has accrued a feeble -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 5th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren stands as one of the best pass-game running backs in the NFL in space.. The Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pat Freiermuth o28.5 Receiving Yards (-125) Projection 34.47 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Bengals defense has surrendered the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (87.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Receiving Yards
Germie Bernard logo
Germie Bernard o50.5 Receiving Yards (-125) Projection 57.78 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

46% picking Pittsburgh

46%
54%

Total Picks PIT 335, CIN 400

Spread
PIT
CIN
Total

63% picking Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over

63%
37%

Total PicksPIT 275, CIN 163

Total
Over
Under

PIT @ CIN · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread
-6.54 PROJECTION
-3.0 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread

PROJECTION

-6.54 PROJECTION
-3.0 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-3.5 -105
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
Under 49.5 Total
46.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.3 DIFFERENCE
18.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
Under 49.5 Total

PROJECTION

46.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.3 DIFFERENCE
18.6% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u49.5 -109
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o285.5 Passing Yards
327.59 OVER PROJECTION
+42.1 DIFFERENCE
26.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o285.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

327.59 OVER PROJECTION
+42.1 DIFFERENCE
26.41% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2. . Joe Burrow's 273.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a meaningful growth in his passing talent over last year's 196.0 mark.. Opposing offenses have passed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (255.0 per game) versus the Steelers defense this year.

o285.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING YARDS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u239.5 Passing Yards
228.54 UNDER PROJECTION
-11.0 DIFFERENCE
21.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u239.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

228.54 UNDER PROJECTION
-11.0 DIFFERENCE
21.52% EV

ANALYSIS

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.. Aaron Rodgers's 62.0% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material reduction in his throwing precision over last year's 67.1% mark.

u241.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
3.55 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
26.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

3.55 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
26.45% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. This year, the formidable Cincinnati Bengals run defense has allowed a feeble 4.68 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 24th-smallest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

o0.5 -108
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards
11.59 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
25.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

11.59 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
25.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. Joe Burrow's 12.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season indicates a remarkable progression in his running proficiency over last season's 5.0 figure.. Joe Burrow's running efficiency has gotten better this season, notching 5.93 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.53 mark last season.

o5.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o46.5 Rushing Yards
50.58 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
23.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o46.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

50.58 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
23.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. Among all RBs, Chase Brown ranks in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 61.7% of the workload in his offense's ground game.. With an excellent record of 44.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (80th percentile), Chase Brown ranks as one of the leading RBs in the league this year.

o45.5 -112
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u65.5 Rushing Yards
61.04 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.5 DIFFERENCE
18.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u65.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

61.04 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.5 DIFFERENCE
18.89% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run on 36.8% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected by the projection model to call just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

u65.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o24.5 Receiving Yards
36.49 OVER PROJECTION
+12.0 DIFFERENCE
26.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o24.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

36.49 OVER PROJECTION
+12.0 DIFFERENCE
26.32% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (59.6% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (48.6%).. Mike Gesicki's 33.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a significant boost in his receiving proficiency over last year's 22.0 rate.. This year, the shaky Steelers pass defense has surrendered a whopping 82.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

o23.5 -125
theScore Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u25.5 Receiving Yards
17.80 UNDER PROJECTION
-7.7 DIFFERENCE
25.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u25.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

17.80 UNDER PROJECTION
-7.7 DIFFERENCE
25.61% EV

ANALYSIS

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.. Jaylen Warren has accrued a feeble -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 5th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren stands as one of the best pass-game running backs in the NFL in space.. The Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

u27.5 -120
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o28.5 Receiving Yards
34.47 OVER PROJECTION
+6.0 DIFFERENCE
22.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o28.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

34.47 OVER PROJECTION
+6.0 DIFFERENCE
22.39% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Bengals defense has surrendered the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (87.0) vs. tight ends this year.

o24.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) o50.5 Receiving Yards
57.78 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
21.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) o50.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

57.78 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
21.94% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

o49.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o23.5 Receiving Yards
26.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
19.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

26.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
19.82% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. With an impressive 57.9% Route Participation Rate (95th percentile) this year, Chase Brown places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the league.. In this week's game, Chase Brown is projected by the projection model to finish in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.5 targets.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (44.0) versus running backs this year.

o23.5 -110
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o90.5 Receiving Yards
95.01 OVER PROJECTION
+4.5 DIFFERENCE
16.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o90.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

95.01 OVER PROJECTION
+4.5 DIFFERENCE
16.61% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. With a remarkable 98.5% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.. In this week's contest, Ja'Marr Chase is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 100th percentile among wide receivers with 11.8 targets.. With a stellar 74.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (94th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the top wide receivers in the league in the league.

o89.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made
2.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
18.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
18.4% EV

ANALYSIS

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.

u3.5 -176
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
14.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
14.56% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (59.6% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (48.6%).. This year, the shaky Steelers pass defense has surrendered a whopping 82.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

o2.5 +116
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made
8.13 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
6.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

8.13 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
6.99% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. With a remarkable 98.5% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.. In this week's contest, Ja'Marr Chase is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 100th percentile among wide receivers with 11.8 targets.. With a terrific 72.2% Adjusted Completion% (78th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase stands as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to WRs.

o7.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.07% EV

ANALYSIS

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's LB corps has been very good this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the league.

u4.5 -130
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
3.18 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
2.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.18 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
2.09% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Pat Freiermuth has run fewer routes this season (70.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (55.7%).

o2.5 -150
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.52 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-13.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.52 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-13.53% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

o4.5 -120
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RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o11.5 Rushing Attempts
12.10 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
9.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o11.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

12.10 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
9.24% EV

ANALYSIS

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. Among all RBs, Chase Brown ranks in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 61.7% of the workload in his offense's ground game.

o11.5 -108
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RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o13.5 Rushing Attempts
13.68 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o13.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

13.68 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.73% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to accrue 14.1 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.. After comprising 58.3% of his offense's rushing play calls last year, Jaylen Warren has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this year, currently making up 69.3%.. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

o12.5 -165
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u36.5 Passing Attempts
34.65 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.9 DIFFERENCE
13.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
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Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u36.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.65 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.9 DIFFERENCE
13.45% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected by the projection model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.

u36.5 -130
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o37.5 Passing Attempts
37.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-8.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
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Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o37.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

37.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-8.4% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2.

o37.5 -114
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o26.5 Passing Completions
29.55 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
18.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
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Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o26.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

29.55 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
18.12% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2. . Joe Burrow's 73.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive improvement in his passing precision over last year's 70.3% figure.

o26.5 -108
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions
20.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
9.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
9.78% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected by the projection model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.. Aaron Rodgers's 62.0% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material reduction in his throwing precision over last year's 67.1% mark.

u21.5 +100
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
25.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
25.66% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.3% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.5% red zone pass rate.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.0. . Joe Burrow's 73.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive improvement in his passing precision over last year's 70.3% figure.. Joe Burrow has been one of the leading touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 2.56 per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

+600
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.45 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.45 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.55% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (63.9% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

+300
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (63.9% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

+310
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.58 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.58 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.5% red zone pass rate.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. While Chase Brown has accounted for 6.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Cincinnati's passing attack near the end zone in this contest at 12.6%.. Chase Brown's 20.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for running backs.

+100
theScore Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.56 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.56 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.24% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.5% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. With an exceptional 34.2% Red Zone Target% (98th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase has been among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.. After accumulating 101.0 air yards per game last year, Ja'Marr Chase has shown good development this year, now boasting 106.0 per game.. Ja'Marr Chase slots into the 97th percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 74.3 mark this year.

-110
theScore Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-3.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-3.42% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (63.9% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

+105
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-8.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-8.61% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.2% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.5% red zone pass rate.. With an exceptional 11.4% Red Zone Target Share (75th percentile) this year, Mike Gesicki stands as one of the tight ends with the most usage near the end zone in the league.. When talking about air yards, Mike Gesicki grades out in the towering 90th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a superb 37.0 per game.. With a terrific rate of 0.75 per game through the air (99th percentile), Mike Gesicki has been as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among TEs this year.

+250
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.05 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.23% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.05 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.23% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (63.9% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

+1550
BetMGM logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Pittsburgh's defense grades out as the 9th-best in football this year as it relates to generating interceptions, accumulating 0.85 per game.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's LB corps has been very good this year, ranking as the 6th-best in the league.

u0.5 +100
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INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.61 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.61 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.84% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. In registering a whopping 38.4 pass attempts per game this year, Aaron Rodgers stands among the top quarterbacks in football (97th percentile) for this stat.

o0.5 -105
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  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread
-6.54 PROJECTION
-3.0 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread

PROJECTION

-6.54 PROJECTION
-3.0 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-3.5 -105
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
Under 49.5 Total
46.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.3 DIFFERENCE
18.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
Under 49.5 Total

PROJECTION

46.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.3 DIFFERENCE
18.6% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u49.5 -109
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PASSING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o285.5 Passing Yards
327.59 OVER PROJECTION
+42.1 DIFFERENCE
26.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o285.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

327.59 OVER PROJECTION
+42.1 DIFFERENCE
26.41% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2. . Joe Burrow's 273.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a meaningful growth in his passing talent over last year's 196.0 mark.. Opposing offenses have passed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (255.0 per game) versus the Steelers defense this year.

o285.5 -120
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PASSING YARDS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u239.5 Passing Yards
228.54 UNDER PROJECTION
-11.0 DIFFERENCE
21.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u239.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

228.54 UNDER PROJECTION
-11.0 DIFFERENCE
21.52% EV

ANALYSIS

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.. Aaron Rodgers's 62.0% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material reduction in his throwing precision over last year's 67.1% mark.

u241.5 -115
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RUSHING YARDS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
3.55 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
26.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

3.55 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
26.45% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. This year, the formidable Cincinnati Bengals run defense has allowed a feeble 4.68 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 24th-smallest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

o0.5 -108
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RUSHING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards
11.59 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
25.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o6.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

11.59 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
25.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. Joe Burrow's 12.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season indicates a remarkable progression in his running proficiency over last season's 5.0 figure.. Joe Burrow's running efficiency has gotten better this season, notching 5.93 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.53 mark last season.

o5.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o46.5 Rushing Yards
50.58 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
23.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o46.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

50.58 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
23.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. Among all RBs, Chase Brown ranks in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 61.7% of the workload in his offense's ground game.. With an excellent record of 44.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (80th percentile), Chase Brown ranks as one of the leading RBs in the league this year.

o45.5 -112
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u65.5 Rushing Yards
61.04 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.5 DIFFERENCE
18.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u65.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

61.04 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.5 DIFFERENCE
18.89% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run on 36.8% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected by the projection model to call just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

u65.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o24.5 Receiving Yards
36.49 OVER PROJECTION
+12.0 DIFFERENCE
26.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o24.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

36.49 OVER PROJECTION
+12.0 DIFFERENCE
26.32% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (59.6% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (48.6%).. Mike Gesicki's 33.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a significant boost in his receiving proficiency over last year's 22.0 rate.. This year, the shaky Steelers pass defense has surrendered a whopping 82.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

o23.5 -125
theScore Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u25.5 Receiving Yards
17.80 UNDER PROJECTION
-7.7 DIFFERENCE
25.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u25.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

17.80 UNDER PROJECTION
-7.7 DIFFERENCE
25.61% EV

ANALYSIS

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.. Jaylen Warren has accrued a feeble -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 5th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren stands as one of the best pass-game running backs in the NFL in space.. The Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

u27.5 -120
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o28.5 Receiving Yards
34.47 OVER PROJECTION
+6.0 DIFFERENCE
22.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o28.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

34.47 OVER PROJECTION
+6.0 DIFFERENCE
22.39% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Bengals defense has surrendered the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (87.0) vs. tight ends this year.

o24.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) o50.5 Receiving Yards
57.78 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
21.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) o50.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

57.78 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
21.94% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

o49.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o23.5 Receiving Yards
26.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
19.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

26.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
19.82% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. With an impressive 57.9% Route Participation Rate (95th percentile) this year, Chase Brown places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the league.. In this week's game, Chase Brown is projected by the projection model to finish in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.5 targets.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (44.0) versus running backs this year.

o23.5 -110
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o90.5 Receiving Yards
95.01 OVER PROJECTION
+4.5 DIFFERENCE
16.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o90.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

95.01 OVER PROJECTION
+4.5 DIFFERENCE
16.61% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. With a remarkable 98.5% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.. In this week's contest, Ja'Marr Chase is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 100th percentile among wide receivers with 11.8 targets.. With a stellar 74.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (94th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the top wide receivers in the league in the league.

o89.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made
2.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
18.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
18.4% EV

ANALYSIS

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.

u3.5 -176
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
14.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
14.56% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (59.6% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (48.6%).. This year, the shaky Steelers pass defense has surrendered a whopping 82.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

o2.5 +116
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made
8.13 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
6.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

8.13 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
6.99% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. With a remarkable 98.5% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.. In this week's contest, Ja'Marr Chase is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 100th percentile among wide receivers with 11.8 targets.. With a terrific 72.2% Adjusted Completion% (78th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase stands as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to WRs.

o7.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.07% EV

ANALYSIS

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's LB corps has been very good this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the league.

u4.5 -130
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
3.18 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
2.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.18 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
2.09% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Pat Freiermuth has run fewer routes this season (70.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (55.7%).

o2.5 -150
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.52 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-13.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.52 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-13.53% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

o4.5 -120
BetMGM logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o11.5 Rushing Attempts
12.10 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
9.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o11.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

12.10 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
9.24% EV

ANALYSIS

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. Among all RBs, Chase Brown ranks in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 61.7% of the workload in his offense's ground game.

o11.5 -108
BetRivers logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o13.5 Rushing Attempts
13.68 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o13.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

13.68 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.73% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to accrue 14.1 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.. After comprising 58.3% of his offense's rushing play calls last year, Jaylen Warren has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this year, currently making up 69.3%.. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

o12.5 -165
BetMGM logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u36.5 Passing Attempts
34.65 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.9 DIFFERENCE
13.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u36.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.65 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.9 DIFFERENCE
13.45% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected by the projection model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.

u36.5 -130
FanDuel logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o37.5 Passing Attempts
37.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-8.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o37.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

37.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-8.4% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2.

o37.5 -114
FanDuel logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o26.5 Passing Completions
29.55 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
18.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o26.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

29.55 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
18.12% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2. . Joe Burrow's 73.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive improvement in his passing precision over last year's 70.3% figure.

o26.5 -108
FanDuel logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions
20.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
9.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
9.78% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected by the projection model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.. Aaron Rodgers's 62.0% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material reduction in his throwing precision over last year's 67.1% mark.

u21.5 +100
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
25.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
25.66% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.3% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.5% red zone pass rate.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.0. . Joe Burrow's 73.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive improvement in his passing precision over last year's 70.3% figure.. Joe Burrow has been one of the leading touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 2.56 per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

+600
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.45 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Germie Bernard logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
G. Bernard (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.45 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.55% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (63.9% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

+300
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (63.9% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

+310
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.58 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.58 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.5% red zone pass rate.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. While Chase Brown has accounted for 6.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Cincinnati's passing attack near the end zone in this contest at 12.6%.. Chase Brown's 20.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for running backs.

+100
theScore Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.56 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.56 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.24% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.5% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. With an exceptional 34.2% Red Zone Target% (98th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase has been among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.. After accumulating 101.0 air yards per game last year, Ja'Marr Chase has shown good development this year, now boasting 106.0 per game.. Ja'Marr Chase slots into the 97th percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 74.3 mark this year.

-110
theScore Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-3.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-3.42% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (63.9% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

+105
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-8.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-8.61% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.2% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.5% red zone pass rate.. With an exceptional 11.4% Red Zone Target Share (75th percentile) this year, Mike Gesicki stands as one of the tight ends with the most usage near the end zone in the league.. When talking about air yards, Mike Gesicki grades out in the towering 90th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a superb 37.0 per game.. With a terrific rate of 0.75 per game through the air (99th percentile), Mike Gesicki has been as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among TEs this year.

+250
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.05 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.23% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.05 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.23% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (63.9% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

+1550
BetMGM logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Pittsburgh's defense grades out as the 9th-best in football this year as it relates to generating interceptions, accumulating 0.85 per game.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's LB corps has been very good this year, ranking as the 6th-best in the league.

u0.5 +100
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.61 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.61 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.84% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. In registering a whopping 38.4 pass attempts per game this year, Aaron Rodgers stands among the top quarterbacks in football (97th percentile) for this stat.

o0.5 -105
bet365 logo

Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'mab1888' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.5)

mab1888 is #1 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'mab1888' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (47.5)

mab1888 is #1 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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Under
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'etrain25' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Under (47.5)

etrain25 is #10 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.

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'etrain25' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-3.5)

etrain25 is #10 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.

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CIN
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'kriskro' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-3.5)

kriskro is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +4350 units on the season.

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'vupham' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+4.5)

vupham is #7 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.

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'vupham' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (47.5)

vupham is #7 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'qlh' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-4.5)

qlh is #8 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.

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'qlh' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (47.5)

qlh is #8 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Total

'mcelaj' picks Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati to go Over (47.5)

mcelaj is #9 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +3800 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'mcelaj' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-3.5)

mcelaj is #9 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +3800 units on the season.

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