Pittsburgh Steelers

Picks

Since Pittsburgh's bye in Week 5, Aaron Rodgers has completed more than 20.5 passes in eight of 11 games. He's also eclipsed this number in each of his last four contests, including a Week 14 clash at Baltimore when he completed 23 of 34 passes for 284 yards. Baltimore's defense has been a passing funnel with the Ravens 28th in the league in completions allowed per game (23.0). The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs which implies a passing game script and while the temperature will be freezing, there will be clear skies with barely any wind.

Gainwell has been a big part of this passing game in the second half of the season and steps up in terms of target priority with Metcalf suspended and Darnell Washington out, and Calvin Austin banged up. Rodgers has thrown to the RB six or more times in five of the last seven games, with Gainwell recording five or more receptions in five of those games. That includes six grabs on seven balls his way vs Baltimore. Projections for Week 18 range from 4.4 to 5 catches. Some other books asking -114 on the same Over.

With the season on the line, Pittsburgh may be forced to get creative, especially in the red zone where a lack of imagination arguably cost them last week. Without DK Metcalf, the Steelers are thin on true scoring threats, which opens the door for Arthur Smith to involve Connor Heyward in short-yardage situations. Heyward had two carries for 26 yards last week and could also see targets if Darnell Washington is limited. He scored in Week 15 on a goal-line carry and has six rushing attempts over the last three games. Since that week, he’s the only Steeler to score on a rush from inside the five. It’s a long shot, but after how ugly this offense looked, a creative wrinkle wouldn’t be surprising.

Gainwell's drawn six or more targets in five of the past seven games, while reeling in at least five receptions in five of those outings. Gainwell has posted receiving efforts of 30-plus yards in four of those contests. Pittsburgh enters Week 18 missing star WR D.K. Metcalf (suspended) and big-bodied TE Darnell Washington (broken arm), and could also have a limited WR Calvin Austin, who is nursing a hamstring ailment. That’s three of the Steelers’ top five receiving threats. Add in the fact the Ravens’ defense has allowed the fourth most receiving yards to running backs and many Week 18 projections calling for 30-plus receiving yards from Gainwell – with a ceiling of 41.5 – and I like him to go Over his receiving prop of the eighth time in the last 10 games.