Pittsburgh Steelers

1st in AFC North (7 - 6 - 0)

Next Game

MIAMiami Miami
at
Pittsburgh PITPittsburgh
Mon, Dec 15 20:15 ET

MIA @ PIT Picks

NFL Picks
Touchdowns
Jaylen Waddle logo Jaylen Waddle o0.5 Touchdowns (+200)
Best Odds
o0.5 +210 bet365
Pick made: 20 hours ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
o0.5  +200
These are quick bet odds
o0.5  +210
o0.5  +200
These are quick bet odds
 -
o0.5  +199
These are quick bet odds

The Dolphins have been running the ball well of late, but De'Von Achane’s rib injury is concerning and his practice reps are in question. If I’m pivoting on an offense that has scored over 100 points across its last four wins, I’m taking the first read in the passing game at a fair +200. Waddle has six touchdowns this season and has gone more than one game without a score only once. He even saw a 21-yard rushing attempt last week and could take on more ground work if Achane sits, especially in a cold-weather game where moving the ball could be tougher. He’s their second-best weapon and could become the focal point if Achane is out.

Total
Miami Dolphins logo Pittsburgh Steelers logo u42.5 (-110)
Best Odds
u42.5 -118 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
u41.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
u41.5  -110
u42.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
u41.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
u41.5  -107
These are quick bet odds

Achane has powered this Miami attack during this streak, with the Dolphins handing off at the highest rate in the league the past three games. That’s keep gains short and the clock ticking, translating into a healthy chunk of TOP for the Fins. The Dolphins will go run-heavy again on Monday, especially if conditions stink, as to keep the heat from QB Tua Tagovailoa. Pittsburgh brings blitz at a Top 5 rate and is among the leaders in sacks and QB hits. The Steelers attack has lacked explosive plays with Aaron Rodgers under center. He enters Week 15 with the second lowest intended air yards per attempt among qualified QBs and the offense has the sixth fewest completions of 20 yards or more – just behind the Dolphins.

Passing Attempts
Tua Tagovailoa logo
Tua Tagovailoa o28.5 Passing Attempts (+102)
Projection 30.68 (Over)
Best Odds
o28.5 +102 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o29.5  -105
These are quick bet odds
o29.5  -115
o28.5  +102
These are quick bet odds
o29.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
o29.5  -118
A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
+102 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o210.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 225.96 (Over)
Best Odds
o210.5 -111 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 33 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o210.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
o224.5  +100
o210.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o216.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o212.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (74.4% Adjusted Completion%).
-111 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Tua Tagovailoa logo
Tua Tagovailoa o195.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 209.39 (Over)
Best Odds
o195.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o199.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
o199.5  -110
o195.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o199.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
o198.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (259.0 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Interceptions Thrown
Tua Tagovailoa logo
Tua Tagovailoa u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+100)
Projection 0.41 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +100 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
u0.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  -120
u0.5  -128
u0.5  +100
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  -118
The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.8% pass rate.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-fewest among all teams this week.. The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Dolphins grades out as the worst in football this year.. The Pittsburgh Steelers have intercepted 0.83 passes per game this year, ranking as the 10th-best defense in the league by this statistic.
+100 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 20.23 (Over)
Best Odds
o14.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
o14.5  -111
o14.5  -110
o14.5  -114
o14.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
o14.5  -115
In this contest, Jaylen Warren is expected by the model to position himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.2 targets.. Jaylen Warren has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 9.3% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among RBs.. The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.. Jaylen Warren profiles as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging an excellent 19.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.. Jaylen Warren's 94.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a material progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.5% figure.
-110 at bet365
Receiving Yards
DK Metcalf logo
DK Metcalf o57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 65.23 (Over)
Best Odds
o53.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
o55.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
o57.5  -110
o53.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o57.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o55.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
With an impressive 93.0% Route Participation Rate (92nd percentile) this year, DK Metcalf rates among the wideouts with the highest volume in the league.. The predictive model expects DK Metcalf to earn 8.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.. The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (66.6%).
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
De'Von Achane logo
De'Von Achane o30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 33.57 (Over)
Best Odds
o26.5 -114 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o26.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o30.5  -110
o27.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o30.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o27.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.. De'Von Achane's 74.2% Route Participation% this year signifies a meaningful progression in his passing game usage over last year's 61.2% figure.. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to total 6.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has compiled a staggering 3.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among RBs. (This might not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
-114 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o0.5 Rushing Yards (+140)
Projection 2.38 (Over)
Best Odds
o0.5 +140 bet365
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
 -
o0.5  +140
o0.5  +116
o0.5  +130
These are quick bet odds
 -
A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (134 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
+140 at bet365
Rushing Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o48.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 62.16 (Over)
Best Odds
o48.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
o52.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o48.5  -110
o51.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o49.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o51.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. In this week's contest, Jaylen Warren is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.6 carries.. Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (62.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.6%).. Jaylen Warren has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).. Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (134 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
-110 at bet365
Rushing Yards
Tua Tagovailoa logo
Tua Tagovailoa o0.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Projection 2.92 (Over)
Best Odds
o0.5 -118 FanDuel
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
o0.5  -118
 -
 -
Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.2% run rate.
-118 at FanDuel

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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

62% picking Pittsburgh

38%
62%

Total Picks MIA 201, PIT 327

Spread
MIA
PIT
Spread
+3.5 -112
-3.5 +103

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'stom5900' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.0)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (11-2-0) and +9650 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
PIT
Spread
+3.5 -112
-3.5 +103
Total

'stom5900' picks Miami vs Pittsburgh to go Over (41.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (11-2-0) and +9650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -111
42.5 -126
Spread

'bigsmoke21169' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.0)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +7800 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
PIT
Spread
+3.5 -112
-3.5 +103
Total

'bigsmoke21169' picks Miami vs Pittsburgh to go Over (42.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +7800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -111
42.5 -126
Total

'bugsy1958' picks Miami vs Pittsburgh to go Over (41.5)

bugsy1958 is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +6200 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -111
42.5 -126
Spread

'bugsy1958' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.5)

bugsy1958 is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +6200 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
PIT
Spread
+3.5 -112
-3.5 +103
Spread

'Bazooks813973' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.0)

Bazooks813973 is #5 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +6080 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
PIT
Spread
+3.5 -112
-3.5 +103
Total

'Bazooks813973' picks Miami vs Pittsburgh to go Under (42.5)

Bazooks813973 is #5 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +6080 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -111
42.5 -126
Spread

'GodOfGambler64' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.5)

GodOfGambler64 is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +5200 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
PIT
Spread
+3.5 -112
-3.5 +103
Spread

'spiveytexas61' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.0)

spiveytexas61 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (8-4-1) and +5150 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
PIT
Spread
+3.5 -112
-3.5 +103
Total

'spiveytexas61' picks Miami vs Pittsburgh to go Over (41.5)

spiveytexas61 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (8-4-1) and +5150 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -111
42.5 -126
Spread

'livelywee55' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.0)

livelywee55 is #6 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5850 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
PIT
Spread
+3.5 -112
-3.5 +103
Total

'livelywee55' picks Miami vs Pittsburgh to go Under (41.5)

livelywee55 is #6 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -111
42.5 -126
Total

'BetoCM' picks Miami vs Pittsburgh to go Under (41.5)

BetoCM is #8 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -111
42.5 -126
Spread

'BetoCM' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.5)

BetoCM is #8 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
PIT
Spread
+3.5 -112
-3.5 +103
Total

'OGScotty' picks Miami vs Pittsburgh to go Under (41.5)

OGScotty is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5400 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -111
42.5 -126
Spread

'OGScotty' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.5)

OGScotty is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5400 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
PIT
Spread
+3.5 -112
-3.5 +103

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