Seattle Seahawks

Picks

Darnold is coming off a breakout season with the Vikings where he threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. He was ineffective in his Seahawks debut but completed 22-of-33 passes for 295 yards against the Steelers in Week 2. He now has the third-highest passing grade in the NFL per PFF and goes from facing Pittsburgh's tough defense on the road to playing against the lowly Saints at home. The Saints are 26th in the league in defensive dropback success rate while ranking 28th in opponent passer rating (111.3). Last week they allowed 49ers backup QB Mac Jones to complete 26-of-39 passes for 279 yards and three scores. 

The Seahawks have been far more effective on the ground this season, ranking 11th in EPA per rush compared to 29th in EPA per dropback. Kenneth Walker generated plenty of buzz after Week 2, rushing for 105 yards despite playing just 35% of the snaps. That number should rise this Sunday at home against the Saints, where Seattle is a 7-point favorite. Zach Charbonnet, who’s been splitting snaps with Walker, missed Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury. That opens the door for a bigger workload for Walker in what should be a neutral-to-positive game script. He was PFF’s highest-graded running back in Week 2. In the red zone, Walker is averaging an absurd 6.6 yards per carry. It’s a bit of a mystery why Charbonnet has been getting some of the tough carries. If Charbonnet is ruled out, expect Walker’s TD price to move quickly—potentially dropping to around -145.

Seattle's defense is playing well and won't be tested much by the Saints' lackluster offense. The Hawks will put up points, but they won't allow Spencer Rattler to generate much offense. 

The Seahawks just beat a solid Steelers team by 14 points, and the Saints do not pose a threat amid their 0-2 start. 

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have 138.7 offensive plays called: the most out of all the games this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.. With an impressive record of 251.0 adjusted passing yards per game (83rd percentile), Sam Darnold rates among the top QBs in the league since the start of last season.. The Saints defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 5th-most in football.

At the moment, the 10th-least pass-heavy team in the league (59.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.. The New Orleans Saints have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season.. Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 204.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Seahawks defense since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the daunting Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing offenses: a meager 7.2 yards.

The Saints have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Saints, who are giant -7.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 138.7 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.. The Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the 8th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have 138.7 offensive plays called: the most out of all the games this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.. With a fantastic 26.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Kenneth Walker III places as one of the leading RBs in the pass game in the league.. Kenneth Walker III has been one of the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, completing an outstanding 89.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 77th percentile.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have 138.7 offensive plays called: the most out of all the games this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.. The projections expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba to earn 9.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The projections expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be much more involved in his team's passing game in this contest (31.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (26.0% in games he has played).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba rates as one of the best pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 73.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

The Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 6.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. An extreme running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game.. The projections expect the Seahawks as the 3rd-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have 138.7 offensive plays called: the most out of all the games this week.. The New Orleans Saints defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up 5.01 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 138.7 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The New Orleans Saints have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.

The Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 6.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. An extreme running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game.. The projections expect the Seahawks as the 3rd-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Kenneth Walker III has averaged 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football when it comes to running backs (78th percentile).. The New Orleans Saints defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up 5.01 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 138.7 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The New Orleans Saints have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.. The leading projections forecast Alvin Kamara to garner 16.2 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs.. Out of all running backs, Alvin Kamara grades out in the 93rd percentile for carries this year, making up 61.5% of the workload in his offense's ground game.. With an outstanding rate of 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (89th percentile), Alvin Kamara has been among the top pure rushers in the NFL since the start of last season.