Seattle Seahawks

Picks

Darnold completed 20 of 26 passes in a Week 18 win over San Francisco, in which Seattle went run heavy. The 49ers showed they could stiffen on the ground in the second half of the Wild Card win at Philadelphia and will sell out to stop Seattle’s rush attack Saturday. That leaves Darnold dropping back more. He’s completed 20 or more passes in four of his last five outings and faces a passive 49ers defense that doesn’t bring pressure and allows the fifth highest completion rate. Darnold’s projections range from 19.8 to a ceiling of 22 completions Saturday night.

Since Week 12, Zach Charbonnet has taken over Seattle’s red-zone work, logging 23 carries to Kenneth Walker’s nine and converting six of those chances into touchdowns while Walker has yet to score. Inside the five-yard line, the usage heavily favors Charbonnet by an 8–1 margin. Over the last two games, including Week 18 vs. San Francisco, Charbonnet has 35 carries for 184 yards and three TDs, plus added receiving work. Walker has similar overall volume but almost no red-zone usage. Charbonnet is clearly the primary finisher, making +100 a strong price.

JSN had 6 catches on 8 targets at San Francisco in Week 18 – a game in which the Seahawks ran on over 58% of their offensive snaps. This is a team that usually hands off at below a 50% rate. Running the ball won’t be as easy this time around and Sam Darnold will look to his top target when the going gets tough. He recorded 7 of more grabs in four straight before Week 18 and has gone Over this total of 6.5 receptions in 12 of his 17 games. He’s the second best WR vs. zone and faces a lot of that at home on Saturday.

San Fran is in tough without tight end George Kittle (Achilles), with the Niners ranking 26th in rush offensive DVOA across the six games he missed during the regular season. Of course, San Francisco also just lost to Seattle 13-3 in Week 18, and the Seahawks send out the best defense in the NFL. In addition to being rested and pacing the league in EPA per play and defensive DVOA, the Seahawks also allow the lowest EPA and fewest yards per rush. I like the Seattle defense slowing down the San Fran offense again while putting enough points on the board to cover the number at Lumen Field on Saturday.

These NFC West rivals clashed in a battle for the top seed in Week 18, with the Seahawks winning a 13-3 grinder.

The Niners managed only nine first downs and 173 total yards on offense while Seattle dominated possession for almost 38 minutes, anchored in a rushing attack going for 180 yards.

The venue swings to the Pacific Northwest for the Divisional Round. The 49ers are also missing star TE George Kittle, who suffered an Achilles injury in the Wild Card Round.

If you think we’ll see more of the same from these divisional rivals, grab the Under 46.5 now. The next key stop will be 44 points, and books will move fast if one-sided money shows on the Under.