The 49ers edged the Seahawks in the season opener, but a lot has changed since. The 49ers lost their two best defenders to season-ending injuries, and Sam Darnold has developed chemistry with his new teammates. The 49ers have an explosive offense, but have struggled on defense. They are 24th in the league in defensive dropback success rate while ranking 31st in defensive rush success rate. Meanwhile, Seattle is fifth in defensive dropback success rate and third in success rate against the run. The Seahawks also have a strong offense that ranks second in the league with 29.4 ppg. Back the more balanced team to take this game and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Niners have won six straight games, prompted by the play of quarterback Brock Purdy. He’s back to being one of the most efficient arms in the NFL, ranking Top 2 in many advanced passer metrics since returning to the fray in Week 11.
Purdy is playing at an extremely high level the last three games, hovering around 300 passing yards in each outing, completing 72% of attempts, and tallying 11 passing touchdowns to two interceptions. He’s also rushed for 83 yards and two TDs in those showings.
Granted, those stats do come against some less-than-stingy defenses, but I feel much more confident in Purdy’s passing than I do with Sam Darnold right now. The Seahawks QB has shown flashes of why he’s far from elite in recent weeks, especially when it comes to ill-advised throws (four INTs the last four games).