Seattle Seahawks

Picks

The Rams leaned into 11 personnel at a season-high 90% last week, yet Colby Parkinson still dominated the tight end usage. He ran the bulk of the routes and finished with as many targets as the rest of the TE room combined, while Tyler Higbee played just 10% of the snaps. Since Higbee returned, Parkinson has clearly emerged as the TE1, drawing 17 targets over the last three games and scoring three touchdowns in that span. Even in a WR-heavy setup, the role and red-zone usage are firmly in Parkinson’s favor.

The Rams leaned on 11 personnel at a season-high 90% last week, which might seem like a concern for Colby Parkinson, but Tyler Higbee played just 10% of the snaps while Parkinson saw seven targets. Combined, Rams tight ends accounted for a massive 33% target share. Since Higbee returned three games ago, Parkinson has 17 targets and at least 34 yards in every game with no real dip in snaps despite the personnel shift. His long gains of 35, 19, 21, 16, 16, and 26 yards show big-play upside, and averaging 5.8 targets over his last six gives him chances to top this on short and high volume. 

Barner actually saw more action as a rusher than receiver in the Divisional Round. He drew zero targets but got one carry for two yards as a short yardage option. The Seahawks' version of the "Tush Push" is named the "Barn Yard", with Barner collecting 10 carries during the regular season, including three attempts in two games with the Rams. With Zach Charbonnet out, the Seahawks could call upon Barner more as a ball carrier - especially in short yardage as to not wear down or injure RB Kenneth Walker. Projections give Barner around 3.5 yards rushing on one carry this Sunday. 

Seattle has used the speedster as a running option a lot since picking him up at the trade deadline, including two runs for 27 yards against the 49ers last week. With the injury to RB Zach Charbonnet, the Seahawks need to find other ways to run the ball, beside Kenneth Walker. Shaheed will be that option. He averages just under eight yards per carry and some projections are at 11+ yards on the ground.

With Charbonnet out, Shaheed could see an increased involvement in the run game. Seattle has used the receiver as a rusher quiet a bit since acquiring him at the trade deadline, including two runs last weekend. On top of that, he’s a home run threat in the pass game and the Rams secondary has been gashed for big gains in the backend of the schedule. 

Rarely have we seen Stafford’s TD pass total shorter than 1.5. In fact the only time in the last 10 games for Stafford in which his TD pass total was this low was against Seattle in Week 16. He threw three touchdowns in that wild overtime game, had two in the Week 11 matchup with Seattle. Projections for Stafford sit as high as two touchdowns. This is a taller total, especially for a playoff game be hosted by the superior defense. Negative game script says Rams playing from behind and Stafford leads that charge.

Walker destroyed Los Angeles in the regular season, raking up totals of 64 and 44 receiving yards. This is an area where the Rams have struggled as they allowed the fifth most receiving yards to RBs during the regular season. Expect extra snaps for Walker with Zach Charbonnet out for the season with a torn ACL.

There isn't much separating these teams, with Seattle finishing the regular season with the best DVOA in the league and L.A. in second. These NFC West foes split the season series, with the Rams losing a close game at Lumen Field and winning by two at home. This should be another tight contest, which has me leaning toward the side with the better quarterback (Matthew Stafford) and coach (Sean McVay) at plus money.

With this spread Under the key number of 3, I’m siding with Seattle. The Seahawks posted the third-highest, single-season DVOA dating back to the 2018 campaign, and earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC has their roster better rested and healthier than the Rams. Los Angeles will also be travelling for a third consecutive game and the fifth time in six weeks. 

Seattle had success running the ball in both games, picking up 139 yards on 35 carries in Week 11 and rushing for 171 yards on just 25 attempts in Week 16. Los Angeles just allowed 160 yards on the ground from 39 carries by Chicago.

If Seattle QB Sam Darnold is still nursing an oblique injury on Sunday, the Seahawks could see their passing plays shortened and an emphasis on the rushing attack. That keeps gains shorter with continuous clock ticking away.

The Rams’ offensive success against Seattle in those two contests was helped along by a slew of turnovers. The Seahawks coughed the ball up a collective seven times in those matchups – six coming via interceptions.

Takeaways are tough to replicate with high variance, especially if Seattle can keep its offense simple and ground centric. That allows the Seahawks to control possession and feeds into the best defense in the NFC.