Los Angeles Rams

Picks

Since their bye in Week 5, the Eagles have led the league in defensive EPA and success rate. Their ability to get to the QB will make life miserable for Matthew Stafford who is the league's lowest-rated starting QB under pressure. Keep in mind that Stafford was sacked five times with 13 pressures when  these teams clashed two months ago. If you omit their meaningless Week 18 loss to Seattle, the Rams have held their last four opponents to fewer than 10 points. This is a young Rams stop unit with four rookie starters but they made huge strides throughout the season and rank 10th in the league in defensive EPA since Week 13. When you also factor in an Eagles offense that loves to run the ball (first in the NFL in rushing play percentage) and a 70% chance of snow in this game, and the Under is the play. 

When these teams clashed in Week 12, the Eagles won 37-20 in L.A. The Rams have improved since then but they still don't match up well against a Philadelphia squad that is stacked with talent at every level. The Eagles rushed for 314 yards in that previous meeting and with Saquon Barkley running behind the league's best offensive line, they should have success in that area again. If the Rams stack the box to stop the run, Philly can make them pay through the air with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles lead the NFL in defensive EPA and defensive success rate since their bye in Week 5. Their ability to get to opposing quarterbacks without blitzing will pose problems for Matthew Stafford who ranks 25th out of 25 qualifying QBs in passing grade under pressure (31.3) per PFF.

The Rams have a very sound red zone defense, but the one soft spot: tight ends. It’s why I bet TJ Hockenson last Monday (he got in) and why I’m betting Goedert this Sunday. Los Angeles allowed the fourth most yardage to TEs in the regular season and eight TDs overall to the position. Goedert was in and out of the lineup this season, came back at the end and getting his form back, coming off a big game against the Packers, six targets, four catches, 47 yards and a TD. One of Hurts’ favorite options in the RZ. +340 at FanDuel, as low as +275 other spots. Go get it with Goedert.

Behind a powerful Philadelphia Eagles offensive line, Barkley has posted a 20+ yard run in six of his last eight games (12/17 overall this year) and ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards gained before contact. That's a bad mix with the Los Angeles Rams, who rank 26th in yards per carry and 28th in yards allowed before contact. Giving Barkley room to run is just asking for big plays to happen — as evidenced by Saquon going for 255 yards (and two runs of 70+ yards) against the Rams earlier this season. 

Hurts ran the ball only six times in the win over the Packers (one on a QB kneel), which was a downtick from his season average of 10 carries per game. It was Hurts’ first game back after missing two weeks due to a concussion, so the team tread lighter than usual when it came to calling Hurts’ number. With another week to recover, expect an all-out effort from Hurts on the ground against the Rams. He ran 12 times in the win over Los Angeles in Week 12 and we've seen heavy workloads from Hurts on the ground in past postseason games. He faces a L.A. defense that’s improved since that last meeting. The Rams are forcing a lot of third and fourth downs, which means “Brotherly Shove” time for Hurts. He’ll also claim any goal line carries and with the Eagles laying -6, there’s always those bonus “carries” in victory formation.

Philadelphia is the best two-way team in the NFC — perhaps the NFL. The Eagles offense was run-heavy in the win over the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card Round but has plenty of passing weapons to stretch the field. Defensively, Vic Fangio’s stop unit is clicking at the perfect time. The Philadelphia defense has been dominant down the stretch and did a good job against Matthew Stafford in that Week 12 meeting, scoring five sacks and checking L.A. to just 4.8 yards per pass attempt. I bet Philadelphia -6 on the opener, expecting this spread to climb to -6.5 and maybe even a touchdown. I’d bet it again if it stays short of six points.