Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Player Props

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (58.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buccaneers. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.4 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. Kyren Williams has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.6% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs. Kyren Williams has totaled significantly more air yards this season (8.0 per game) than he did last season (-2.0 per game).

The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.4 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. The projections expect Puka Nacua to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (24.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.0% in games he has played). After averaging 75.0 air yards per game last season, Puka Nacua has made big progress this season, currently boasting 83.0 per game.