Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks
4th in NFC South
(0 - 0 - 0)
Next Game
Sun, Sep 13
13:00 ET
TB @ CIN Picks
NFL PicksEV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.2 passes this week, on average: the 9th-fewest out of all QBs.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.1. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (232.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense last year.. Last year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a colossal 0.00 YAC.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The Tampa Bay defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have just 125.0 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Last year, the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense has surrendered a feeble 99.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a colossal 34.0 air yards per game last year: 83rd percentile among TEs.. The Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (56.0) vs. TEs last year.. Last year, the anemic Buccaneers defense has been torched for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (38.0) versus RBs last year.. The Bengals pass defense has struggled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Last year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a staggering 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the most in football.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.5% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to notch 11.4 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.. In regards to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 101.0 per game.. With an exceptional 82.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (99th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase has been among the best wide receivers in the game in the NFL.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusTB @ CIN · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
B. Mayfield
(QB)
u237.5 Passing Yards
218.20 UNDER
PROJECTION
-19.3
DIFFERENCE
26.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o265.5 Passing Yards
300.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+35.3
DIFFERENCE
25.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o5.5 Rushing Yards
11.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
25.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
B. Mayfield
(QB)
o14.5 Rushing Yards
19.54 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.0
DIFFERENCE
24.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
C. Brown
(RB)
u61.5 Rushing Yards
55.36 UNDER
PROJECTION
-6.1
DIFFERENCE
22.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
B. Irving
(RB)
o56.5 Rushing Yards
58.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Gesicki
(TE)
o16.5 Receiving Yards
25.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.1
DIFFERENCE
26.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Irving
(RB)
o13.5 Receiving Yards
17.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
24.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Brown
(RB)
o22.5 Receiving Yards
28.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.2
DIFFERENCE
23.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Chase
(WR)
o86.5 Receiving Yards
94.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.7
DIFFERENCE
21.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Otton
(TE)
u28.5 Receiving Yards
26.85 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.7
DIFFERENCE
18.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
E. Egbuka
(WR)
u55.5 Receiving Yards
54.77 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Gesicki
(TE)
o1.5 Receptions Made
2.54 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
16.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Otton
(TE)
u3.5 Receptions Made
2.55 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
13.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Chase
(WR)
o6.5 Receptions Made
7.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
6.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
E. Egbuka
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.01 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
3.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Brown
(RB)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
1.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Irving
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.16 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-1.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
B. Mayfield
(QB)
u33.5 Passing Attempts
29.80 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.7
DIFFERENCE
20.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o23.5 Passing Completions
27.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
18.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Brown
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.8 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Chase
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.58 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Mayfield
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.04 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
PASSING YARDS
B. Mayfield
(QB)
u237.5 Passing Yards
218.20 UNDER
PROJECTION
-19.3
DIFFERENCE
26.04%
EV
PASSING YARDS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o265.5 Passing Yards
300.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+35.3
DIFFERENCE
25.95%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o5.5 Rushing Yards
11.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
25.84%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
B. Mayfield
(QB)
o14.5 Rushing Yards
19.54 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.0
DIFFERENCE
24.31%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
C. Brown
(RB)
u61.5 Rushing Yards
55.36 UNDER
PROJECTION
-6.1
DIFFERENCE
22.18%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
B. Irving
(RB)
o56.5 Rushing Yards
58.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
17%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Gesicki
(TE)
o16.5 Receiving Yards
25.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.1
DIFFERENCE
26.86%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Irving
(RB)
o13.5 Receiving Yards
17.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
24.95%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Brown
(RB)
o22.5 Receiving Yards
28.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.2
DIFFERENCE
23.58%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Chase
(WR)
o86.5 Receiving Yards
94.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.7
DIFFERENCE
21.54%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Otton
(TE)
u28.5 Receiving Yards
26.85 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.7
DIFFERENCE
18.78%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
E. Egbuka
(WR)
u55.5 Receiving Yards
54.77 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Gesicki
(TE)
o1.5 Receptions Made
2.54 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
16.12%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Otton
(TE)
u3.5 Receptions Made
2.55 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
13.95%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Chase
(WR)
o6.5 Receptions Made
7.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
6.77%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
E. Egbuka
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.01 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
3.89%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Brown
(RB)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
1.13%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Irving
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.16 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-1.81%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
B. Mayfield
(QB)
u33.5 Passing Attempts
29.80 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.7
DIFFERENCE
20.19%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o23.5 Passing Completions
27.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
18.99%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Brown
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.8 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.47%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Chase
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.58 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.09%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Mayfield
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.04 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
TB @ CIN · Trends
Check back shortly to see trends for each team.
Top User Picks
More Picks| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Buccaneers Money Leaders | |||