Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4th in NFC South (0 - 0 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Sep 13 13:00 ET

TB @ CIN Picks

NFL Picks
Passing Yards
Baker Mayfield logo
Baker Mayfield u237.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 218.2 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.2 passes this week, on average: the 9th-fewest out of all QBs.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.
Passing Yards
Joe Burrow logo
Joe Burrow o265.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 300.77 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.1. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (232.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense last year.. Last year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a colossal 0.00 YAC.
Rushing Yards
Joe Burrow logo
Joe Burrow o5.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 11.58 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The Tampa Bay defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.
Rushing Yards
Baker Mayfield logo
Baker Mayfield o14.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Projection 19.54 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.
Rushing Yards
Chase Brown logo
Chase Brown u61.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Projection 55.36 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have just 125.0 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Last year, the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense has surrendered a feeble 99.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Rushing Yards
Bucky Irving logo
Bucky Irving o56.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 58.01 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.
Receiving Yards
Mike Gesicki logo
Mike Gesicki o16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 25.56 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a colossal 34.0 air yards per game last year: 83rd percentile among TEs.. The Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (56.0) vs. TEs last year.. Last year, the anemic Buccaneers defense has been torched for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Bucky Irving logo
Bucky Irving o13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 17.21 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (38.0) versus RBs last year.. The Bengals pass defense has struggled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.
Receiving Yards
Chase Brown logo
Chase Brown o22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 28.7 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Last year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a staggering 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the most in football.
Receiving Yards
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Ja'Marr Chase o86.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 94.15 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.5% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to notch 11.4 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.. In regards to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 101.0 per game.. With an exceptional 82.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (99th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase has been among the best wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

61% picking Cincinnati

39%
61%

Total Picks TB 121, CIN 192

Spread
TB
CIN
Total

46% picking Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati to go Under

54%
46%

Total PicksTB 108, CIN 93

Total
Over
Under

TB @ CIN · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
PASSING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u237.5 Passing Yards
218.20 UNDER PROJECTION
-19.3 DIFFERENCE
26.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u237.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

218.20 UNDER PROJECTION
-19.3 DIFFERENCE
26.04% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.2 passes this week, on average: the 9th-fewest out of all QBs.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u247.5 -117
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o265.5 Passing Yards
300.77 OVER PROJECTION
+35.3 DIFFERENCE
25.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o265.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

300.77 OVER PROJECTION
+35.3 DIFFERENCE
25.95% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.1. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (232.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense last year.. Last year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a colossal 0.00 YAC.

o265.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards
11.58 OVER PROJECTION
+6.1 DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

11.58 OVER PROJECTION
+6.1 DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The Tampa Bay defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.

o5.5 -110
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o14.5 Rushing Yards
19.54 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
24.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o14.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

19.54 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
24.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.

o14.5 -111
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u61.5 Rushing Yards
55.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-6.1 DIFFERENCE
22.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u61.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

55.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-6.1 DIFFERENCE
22.18% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have just 125.0 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Last year, the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense has surrendered a feeble 99.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.

u62.5 -114
Caesars logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards
58.01 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

58.01 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
17% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.

o55.5 -111
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o16.5 Receiving Yards
25.56 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
26.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o16.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

25.56 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
26.86% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a colossal 34.0 air yards per game last year: 83rd percentile among TEs.. The Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (56.0) vs. TEs last year.. Last year, the anemic Buccaneers defense has been torched for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

o15.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards
17.21 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
24.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

17.21 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
24.95% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (38.0) versus RBs last year.. The Bengals pass defense has struggled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.

o12.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o22.5 Receiving Yards
28.70 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
23.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o22.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

28.70 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
23.58% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Last year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a staggering 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the most in football.

o20.5 -150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o86.5 Receiving Yards
94.15 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
21.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o86.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

94.15 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
21.54% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.5% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to notch 11.4 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.. In regards to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 101.0 per game.. With an exceptional 82.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (99th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase has been among the best wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

o85.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) u28.5 Receiving Yards
26.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.7 DIFFERENCE
18.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) u28.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

26.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.7 DIFFERENCE
18.78% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) last year, Cade Otton rates as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the league in space.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been outstanding last year, grading out as the 7th-best in the league.

u28.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) u55.5 Receiving Yards
54.77 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) u55.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.77 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u56.5 -114
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o1.5 Receptions Made
2.54 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.54 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.12% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Last year, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed a monstrous 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-largest rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

o1.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) u3.5 Receptions Made
2.55 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
13.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) u3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.55 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
13.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been outstanding last year, grading out as the 7th-best in the league.

u3.5 -170
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made
7.61 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
6.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.61 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
6.77% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.5% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to notch 11.4 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.. Ja'Marr Chase comes in as one of the leading WRs in the game last year, averaging an impressive 7.0 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.. The Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the NFL last year in defending pass-catchers.

o6.5 -135
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.01 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
3.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.01 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
3.89% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u4.5 -140
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.88 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
1.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.88 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
1.13% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. Chase Brown checks in as one of the top pass-game running backs last year, averaging an exceptional 3.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (90.3%) to running backs last year (90.3%).

o3.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made
2.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been outstanding last year, grading out as the 7th-best in the league.

u2.5 -180
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts
29.80 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.7 DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

29.80 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.7 DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV

ANALYSIS

At a massive 29.63 seconds per play, the Buccaneers offense grades out as the 7th-slowest paced in the NFL (in a neutral context) last year.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.1 passes this week, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.

u33.5 -117
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o23.5 Passing Completions
27.00 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o23.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

27.00 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.1. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. The Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the NFL last year in defending pass-catchers.

o23.5 -125
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.8 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.8 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.47% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Chase Brown places in the 94th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 22.5 mark last year.. Chase Brown grades out in the 98th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs last year, averaging an exceptional 0.26 per game.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (90.3%) to running backs last year (90.3%).

-135
theScore Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.58 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.58 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.09% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. With a high 26.2% Red Zone Target Share (96th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.. In regards to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 101.0 per game.. Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the 98th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 74.7 figure last year.. With an excellent rate of 0.44 per game through the air (91st percentile), Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among wideouts last year.

-105
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.04 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.04 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. With zero red zone carries last year, Baker Mayfield's one-dimensionality makes him a no threat as a ball-carrier near the goal line.. Last year, the feeble Bengals defense has yielded a monstrous 1.88 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 4th-worst rate in football.

+700
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
PASSING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u237.5 Passing Yards
218.20 UNDER PROJECTION
-19.3 DIFFERENCE
26.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u237.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

218.20 UNDER PROJECTION
-19.3 DIFFERENCE
26.04% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.2 passes this week, on average: the 9th-fewest out of all QBs.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u247.5 -117
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PASSING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o265.5 Passing Yards
300.77 OVER PROJECTION
+35.3 DIFFERENCE
25.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o265.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

300.77 OVER PROJECTION
+35.3 DIFFERENCE
25.95% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.1. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (232.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense last year.. Last year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a colossal 0.00 YAC.

o265.5 -115
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RUSHING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards
11.58 OVER PROJECTION
+6.1 DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

11.58 OVER PROJECTION
+6.1 DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The Tampa Bay defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.

o5.5 -110
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o14.5 Rushing Yards
19.54 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
24.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o14.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

19.54 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
24.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.

o14.5 -111
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RUSHING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u61.5 Rushing Yards
55.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-6.1 DIFFERENCE
22.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u61.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

55.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-6.1 DIFFERENCE
22.18% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have just 125.0 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Last year, the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense has surrendered a feeble 99.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.

u62.5 -114
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RUSHING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards
58.01 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

58.01 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
17% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. Last year, the shaky Bengals run defense has conceded a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.

o55.5 -111
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RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o16.5 Receiving Yards
25.56 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
26.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o16.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

25.56 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
26.86% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a colossal 34.0 air yards per game last year: 83rd percentile among TEs.. The Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (56.0) vs. TEs last year.. Last year, the anemic Buccaneers defense has been torched for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

o15.5 -120
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RECEIVING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards
17.21 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
24.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

17.21 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
24.95% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (38.0) versus RBs last year.. The Bengals pass defense has struggled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.

o12.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o22.5 Receiving Yards
28.70 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
23.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o22.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

28.70 OVER PROJECTION
+6.2 DIFFERENCE
23.58% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Last year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a staggering 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the most in football.

o20.5 -150
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RECEIVING YARDS
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o86.5 Receiving Yards
94.15 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
21.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o86.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

94.15 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
21.54% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.5% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to notch 11.4 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.. In regards to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 101.0 per game.. With an exceptional 82.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (99th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase has been among the best wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

o85.5 -114
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RECEIVING YARDS
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) u28.5 Receiving Yards
26.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.7 DIFFERENCE
18.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) u28.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

26.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.7 DIFFERENCE
18.78% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) last year, Cade Otton rates as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the league in space.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been outstanding last year, grading out as the 7th-best in the league.

u28.5 -110
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RECEIVING YARDS
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) u55.5 Receiving Yards
54.77 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) u55.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.77 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u56.5 -114
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o1.5 Receptions Made
2.54 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.54 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.12% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Last year, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed a monstrous 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-largest rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

o1.5 -125
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) u3.5 Receptions Made
2.55 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
13.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) u3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.55 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
13.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been outstanding last year, grading out as the 7th-best in the league.

u3.5 -170
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made
7.61 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
6.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.61 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
6.77% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.5% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to notch 11.4 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.. Ja'Marr Chase comes in as one of the leading WRs in the game last year, averaging an impressive 7.0 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.. The Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the NFL last year in defending pass-catchers.

o6.5 -135
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.01 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
3.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.01 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
3.89% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

u4.5 -140
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.88 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
1.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.88 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
1.13% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. Chase Brown checks in as one of the top pass-game running backs last year, averaging an exceptional 3.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (90.3%) to running backs last year (90.3%).

o3.5 -110
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made
2.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been outstanding last year, grading out as the 7th-best in the league.

u2.5 -180
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts
29.80 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.7 DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

29.80 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.7 DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV

ANALYSIS

At a massive 29.63 seconds per play, the Buccaneers offense grades out as the 7th-slowest paced in the NFL (in a neutral context) last year.. The model projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.1 passes this week, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.

u33.5 -117
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o23.5 Passing Completions
27.00 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o23.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

27.00 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.1. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. The Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the NFL last year in defending pass-catchers.

o23.5 -125
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.8 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.8 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.47% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Chase Brown places in the 94th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 22.5 mark last year.. Chase Brown grades out in the 98th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs last year, averaging an exceptional 0.26 per game.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (90.3%) to running backs last year (90.3%).

-135
theScore Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.58 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.58 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.09% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. With a high 26.2% Red Zone Target Share (96th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.. In regards to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 101.0 per game.. Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the 98th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 74.7 figure last year.. With an excellent rate of 0.44 per game through the air (91st percentile), Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among wideouts last year.

-105
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.04 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.04 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).. With zero red zone carries last year, Baker Mayfield's one-dimensionality makes him a no threat as a ball-carrier near the goal line.. Last year, the feeble Bengals defense has yielded a monstrous 1.88 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 4th-worst rate in football.

+700
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