Washington Commanders

Picks

Samuel has found the end zone in each of the past two games and leads Washington with five receiving TDs this season. He has also seen a team-high 11 targets in the red zone. Tight end Zach Ertz is second on the team with seven red-zone targets and no other Washington receiver has more than two targets inside the 20-yard line. Samuel will be fighting for targets with No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin who returns to the lineup after missing the last month. However, McLaurin could be rusty and will be blanketed by All Pro corner Patrick Surtain with Samuel drawing an easier assignment. 

Troy Franklin leads the Broncos with five receiving touchdowns. Four of those touchdowns have come in the last five weeks with Franklin averaging a team-high 9.0 targets per game during that span. He is Bo Nix's go-to receiver when Denver gets close to the goal line, reeling in 11 of 14 targets inside the red zone. That isn't surprising since the sophomore wide receiver had already built chemistry with Nix after playing together at Oregon. Franklin should thrive against a Commanders defense that is last in the league in dropback EPA and ranks 27th in passing touchdowns allowed.

Nix has cashed the Over in passing yards in three of his last five outings, and the Commanders are a nightmare defensively. They rank 29th in passing yards, allowing 249.5 per contest. 

Franklin has seen 14 red-zone targets this year, good for 10th in the league. He has double the targets of the next-highest Broncos player (Evan Engram, 6). 

JK Dobbins is still out, and RJ Harvey did nothing in Week 11 despite a chance to take over the backfield. Instead, Sean Payton rotated as usual, with Jaleel McLaughlin handling six of the 17 carries and, more importantly, the red-zone work. Two of McLaughlin’s six attempts came inside the 10, and he was the back who found the end zone, not Harvey. With Washington allowing the fifth-most points per game, this matchup is far more favorable for Denver’s RB2 than last week’s spot against Kansas City.

The Broncos will be able to run all over the home team Sunday night. Washington sits in the bottom third of most run stop metrics, including 24th in success rate allowed per handoff. Denver boasts one of the best offensive lines in the business, rated Top 10 in run block win rate and adjusted line yards at FTN. Running back R.J. Harvey is now the primary ball carrier ever since J.K. Dobbins went down. Before the Broncos’ bye last weekend, Harvey logged 38 snaps and carried the ball 11 times – second most this season – for 30 yards in the win over Kansas City in Week 11. The bulk of player projections for Harvey call for 50-plus rushing yards in Week 13 and most of those models are at 58-plus with a ceiling of 62 yards versus Washington.

Denver sends an elite defense out against Washington and backup quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Broncos are fourth in defensive DVOA and have allowed the third-fewest points per game, so I expect Mariota to struggle Sunday. Of course, Denver also has the highest pressure percentage in the league and paces the NFL in sacks.