Washington Commanders Picks
4th in NFC East
(1 - 4 - 1)
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PHI @ WAS Picks
NFL PicksJayden Daniels has found something with Chig Okonkwo, and there’s no reason to abandon it now. Okonkwo has produced 60 and 69 receiving yards in his last two games, drawing 13 targets. Terry McLaurin’s absence leaves more opportunities available against an Eagles team coming apart at the seams.
At 29%, I'll hit the button on Jayden Daniels to score a touchdown, as I make him closer to 36% to find the end zone against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Vic Fangio likes to play man coverage near the goal line to take away quick-hitting routes like slants and fades. With defenders focused on their assignments, Daniels has an opportunity to exploit the coverage, escape the pocket, and run his way into the end zone.
I'll take an RB1 against the Eagles, who just gave up 204 rushing yards to the Cowboys and are playing on a short week. Rachaad White is one of the better +EV TD options in this game, with a fair probability of 40%. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on IR, Terry McLaurin is out, and Stefon Diggs is questionable. Austin Ekeler saw almost no action in Week 6 before the bye, while White played 69% of the snaps and accounted for 60% of the RB opportunities. His receiving skills also keep him on the field in two-minute situations and negative game scripts.
Williams has carved out a spot as Washington’s top slot option, playing the inside position on almost half his snaps. That matches up well against Philadelphia, which has struggled to contain slot receivers this season. Williams caught all four balls his way for 64 yards and a touchdown in his pro debut versus the Eagles in Week 1. His Week 8 projections all sit north of 30 yards with a ceiling of 46+. My number boils down to 37 yards from the Commanders’ first-year receiver.
The Eagles face a Commanders defense that has been bullied by rival tight ends this season. Washington ranks dead last in DVOA vs. tight ends, allowing the seventh most yards to the position along with eight touchdowns to TEs in just six games. Goedert is responsible for two of those touchdowns, with a pair of scores in the win over Washington in Week 1. His touchdown forecasts for this return matchup range from 19% to as high as 44% with the majority at 30% or higher.
This total is too low on SNF. The Eagles offense has actually been respectable with backup Tanner KcKee under center, putting up points in Week 7. Neither defense is great and Philly isn't generating any pass pressure, giving Washington QB Jayden Daniels a clean pocket. He passed for 300 yards and two TDS vs. the 49ers two weeks ago and is four weeks healed from his elbow injury. I'll take the Over on SNF.
To the Eagles’ credit, they were able to hang tough on MNF with a backup QB missing his top two WRs and a rusty Saquon Barkley coming back from injury. Philadelphia actually ranked No. 5 in EPA per play through the first 45 minutes among all Week 7 offenses. Washington gets little support from the stop unit, which is ranked in the bottom 10 in many key metrics like success rate allowed, opponent third down conversions, and red zone defense (dead last with foes enjoying an almost 82% TD rate).
There is a lot of big-name firepower missing on both sides, but I see more meat on the bone for these offenses – especially considering the complementing stop units are both garbage. Washington allowed Dallas Goedert to find the end zone twice in Week 1 and have given up the second most TDs to tight ends heading into Week 8. With the Eagles receiving corps running thin, Goedert’s role spikes on SNF. Rookie WR Antonio Williams is filling the void left by Terry McLaurin, doing plenty of damage out of the slot. He burned Philly in his NFL debut and is projected for as many as 46 receiving yards in Week 8.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusPHI @ WAS · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
PHI
+5.5 spread
5.29
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
8.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Under
40.0 Total
40.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
4.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
T. McKee
(QB)
o197.5 Passing Yards
213.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+16.0
DIFFERENCE
24.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Daniels
(QB)
u202.5 Passing Yards
196.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-6.2
DIFFERENCE
17.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
T. McKee
(QB)
o2.5 Rushing Yards
14.29 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.8
DIFFERENCE
27.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
R. White
(RB)
o45.5 Rushing Yards
62.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.2
DIFFERENCE
26.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Daniels
(QB)
o36.5 Rushing Yards
39.39 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
19.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
S. Diggs
(WR)
o40.5 Receiving Yards
52.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.8
DIFFERENCE
25.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
R. White
(RB)
o9.5 Receiving Yards
18.87 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.4
DIFFERENCE
24.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Okonkwo
(TE)
o30.5 Receiving Yards
35.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.6
DIFFERENCE
21.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
R. White
(RB)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
10%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Okonkwo
(TE)
u3.5 Receptions Made
3.29 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-0.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
S. Diggs
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.49 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-13.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
R. White
(RB)
o12.5 Rushing Attempts
15.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
20.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Daniels
(QB)
u7.5 Rushing Attempts
7.17 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
1.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
T. McKee
(QB)
u34.5 Passing Attempts
31.92 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.6
DIFFERENCE
16.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Daniels
(QB)
u30.5 Passing Attempts
28.60 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.9
DIFFERENCE
10.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
T. McKee
(QB)
o20.5 Passing Completions
21.29 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
9.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Daniels
(QB)
o17.5 Passing Completions
18.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
8.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. McKee
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Daniels
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.36 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
S. Diggs
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.33 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
9.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
R. White
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
5.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Okonkwo
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-2.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Goedert
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-6.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Lemon
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
S. Barkley
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-13.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Daniels
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-1.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
T. McKee
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.82 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-12.07%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low