Washington Commanders

Picks

George Pickens had a 44-yarder the last time he played the Commanders and has hit this in nine games this season. 

Rodriguez has taken most of the control of the backfield over the past few weeks and this is a great matchup against the Cowboys defense. 

Javonte Williams has been limited in practice and has already had his usage dropped late in the season. 

The Commanders rank near the bottom of the league in most defensive measurements, including explosive plays. They’ve given up 47 completions for 20 yards or more and a dozen dingers of 40-plus. One of those was a 44-yard direct strike from Dak Prescott to a streaking George Pickens down the sideline back in Week 7. The Cowboys receiver is one of the top deep threats in the league. Pickens is third in receptions of 20-plus (21), fourth in catches of 30-plus (9), and fourth in receptions of 40 yards or more (4). The Pro Bowler is also the top-ranked WR on the Cowboys versus man coverage, according to PFF. He’ll face a lot of man schemes from the Commies, especially since head coach Dan Quinn (former Dallas DC) took over playcalling.

Pickens has posted a catch for 26 yards or more in nine of his 15 games, including a 38-yard touchdown strike against a much tougher L.A. Chargers pass defense last Sunday. 

With Dallas eliminated from the playoff picture, I’m looking for a potential Malik Davis usage spike. He finished last week with just one fewer carry than Javonte Williams, while Williams played just 35% of the second-half snaps, which could signal a bigger role for Davis in a game that carries little meaning. There’s also the added context of Jerry Jones publicly discussing a desire to re-sign Williams, who is set to hit free agency after the season. There's no need to push him now in a lost season. Davis’ trend line is moving in the right direction, and the red-zone usage supports it. Over the last three weeks, he has had five red-zone carries to Williams' seven.

Williams is dealing with a neck injury coming out of the Chargers game but even before that, you could see his production slow in the second half of the schedule. We’re getting more carries from Malik Davis and the team will be kicking the tires on its second and third stringers in the final games of the year. Williams has gone Over the 75-yard bar just once in the past four games and a short week to get healthy could have Dallas spreading the love on the run this Xmas Day.

Marcus Mariota injured his right hand in Saturday’s loss to Philadelphia, requiring stitches, and is listed as day-to-day on the short week while also dealing with a quads injury. With starter Jayden Daniels shut down, the Commanders would turn to journeyman Josh Johnson under center.

Dallas lugs a three-game slide to the nation’s capital, most recently getting blasted by the L.A. Chargers at home on Sunday. The Cowboys did beat up on the Commanders in Week 7, winning a 44-22 shootout at home.

If and when Mariota is ruled out, his spread will jump to the key number of -6 and with no shortage of support for Dallas, I could see this closing -6.5 come Thursday. 

The Cowboys can put up points against this terrible Washington defense, which is something the Commanders might not be able to do with a QB3 at the wheel and a banged-up offensive line in front of him.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.