Washington Commanders

Picks

Williams is dealing with a neck injury coming out of the Chargers game but even before that, you could see his production slow in the second half of the schedule. We’re getting more carries from Malik Davis and the team will be kicking the tires on its second and third stringers in the final games of the year. Williams has gone Over the 75-yard bar just once in the past four games and a short week to get healthy could have Dallas spreading the love on the run this Xmas Day.

Marcus Mariota injured his right hand in Saturday’s loss to Philadelphia, requiring stitches, and is listed as day-to-day on the short week while also dealing with a quads injury. With starter Jayden Daniels shut down, the Commanders would turn to journeyman Josh Johnson under center.

Dallas lugs a three-game slide to the nation’s capital, most recently getting blasted by the L.A. Chargers at home on Sunday. The Cowboys did beat up on the Commanders in Week 7, winning a 44-22 shootout at home.

If and when Mariota is ruled out, his spread will jump to the key number of -6 and with no shortage of support for Dallas, I could see this closing -6.5 come Thursday. 

The Cowboys can put up points against this terrible Washington defense, which is something the Commanders might not be able to do with a QB3 at the wheel and a banged-up offensive line in front of him.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.