Washington Commanders

Picks

This might be my favorite touchdown prop in the game, largely because of the price. Chris Rodriguez Jr. missed last week but has returned to full practice, and while Jacory Croskey-Merritt may have earned some snaps, Rodriguez is still the most likely candidate to reclaim his red-zone role, which he’s controlled for most of the season. Since Week 9, no other Commanders running back has more than one carry inside the five-yard line. With Marcus Mariota priced as short as +250, I’d rather back the goal-line back, especially one averaging 3.8 yards per carry in the red zone. There isn’t much margin for error here, but I’d play this down to +170 or +175.

Brown is locked in for another stellar showing in Week 16, given the competition. Washington is one of the worst passing defenses in the league and Brown burned Dan Quinn’s crew for gains of 65, 95, and 97 yards in their three meetings last year. The Commanders, who are 28th in pass defense DVOA and sit tied for the most completions of 40-plus yards (12), lean into man coverage at an above-average rate – especially now that Quinn is calling the plays. Brown enters Week 16 as the No. 4 rated receiver versus man schemes at PFF, most recently lighting up the Chicago Bears man-centric schemes for 132 yards on 10 catches. Brown’s player projections for this Saturday showcase all sit north of 70 yards with most models flirting with 80 yards and a ceiling sitting at 87. That more than enough to blow through this modest total of 60.5 O/U.

The Eagles offense is trying to build momentum down the home stretch and Washington won't present much push back defensively. The Commanders have allowed five passing touchdowns the last two games and Hurts shredded this man-heavy secondary last season. Philly's running backs are banged up, so we could see more passing from the Eagles on Saturday. Player projections all lean toward two touchdown throws from Hurts against a Washington red zone defense giving up touchdowns at a 76.92% clip the past three outings.

Brown stung the Commies in their three meetings last season, going for 65, 95, and 97 yards all while drawing eight or more targets against Dan Quinn’s man-heavy schemes. Brown is the fourth best WR vs man at PFF. He’s been putting up big numbers and had 41 yards on two catches vs Vegas last week before getting pulled in the 4Q of that blowout. Most models sit north of 70 yards receiving on Saturday, facing a Washington defense that’s terrible against the pass.

The defending Super Bowl champs have underachieved most of the season but are fresh off a 31-0 win against the Raiders, and I expect them to run up the score once again. Washington is clearly in full-on tank mode after shutting down Jayden Daniels for the remainder of the season. The Commanders are 31st in the league in defensive EPA, and their offense won't be much better without their franchise quarterback. The Eagles are the far more talented team, and they need to enter the playoffs with some momentum. I'm more than happy to lay less than a touchdown on the favorites in this matchup. 

Philly faces another soft defense in Week 16, and I’m confident the Eagles can put enough points on the board while holding the Commanders in check to cover the number. Washington has allowed the seventh-most points per game while surrendering the second-highest EPA and second-most yards per play, and the Commanders also entered Week 15 ranked 27th in defensive DVOA.

Beating up on the Raiders only carries so much weight but Philadelphia’s one-sided win over Las Vegas was exactly what the Eagles needed. Philadelphia put up 31 points, 27 first downs, and 387 yards of offense. Now it heads to the nation’s capital with momentum for the first time in weeks, laying just shy of the key number of six against the Commanders in a Saturday standalone game.  Washington beat New York despite being outgained and allowing 22 first downs to the G-Men. Six of its 29 points came from a punt return touchdown, making an otherwise ho-hum offensive effort look better than it was. Philadelphia is hoping to get two key bodies back in the trenches with OT Lane Johnson and DT Jalen Carter sitting out Sunday’s win. Any positive updates around those players will push this spread higher, so I’m snatching Eagles -5.5 now.