Washington Commanders

Picks

The Eagles haven’t taken down a who’s who of NFL contenders during their 5-0 run out of their bye week, but the defense has climbed to seventh in defensive DVOA and No. 1 in PFF grade while allowing the lowest EPA per play and success rate during the heater. I don’t think the Commanders will keep pace because Philly has also put 35.4 per on the board per game across their past five while ranking fifth in EPA per play. 

The Eagles pass defense was their biggest weakness last year but they currently lead the NFL in dropback success rate while allowing a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt. They are third in the league in passing yards allowed per game (173.4) with that number shrinking to an incredible 139.2 ypg over their last six games. CB Darius Slay is questionable with an ankle injury but rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have stepped up over the last month. They should be able to contain a Washington aerial attack that has only one consistent WR in Terry McLaurin. Jayden Daniels has been outstanding but he threw for a modest 209 yards against the Giants in Week 9 before completing just 17-of-34 passes for 202 yards versus Pittsburgh last week. The Commanders also have three starting offensive lineman listed as questionable which could give Daniels less time to throw

A.J. Brown has racked up at least 84 receiving yards in five of six games this year and he's coming off a 109-yard performance against the Cowboys. The All-Pro wideout is poised for a big night against a Commanders defense that ranks 24th in dropback EPA and 27th in opponent passer rating (102.5). The Commanders tried to fix that problem by trading for Marshon Lattimore, but he's dealing with a hamstring injury and is trending toward sitting out on a short week. Philadelphia's No. 2 WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert are also banged up, and if they're at less than full strength, it would mean even more targets for Brown.

Washington's defense has been bad against the pass but is even worse against the run. The Commanders are 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (142.1) and yards allowed per rush attempt (4.8). They've allowed a whopping 166.7 ypg on the ground over the last three weeks despite facing the Bears, Giants, and Steelers — who all rank in the bottom half of the league in rush EPA. If they were gashed by those teams, they'll be trampled by Saquon Barkleywho is second in the league with 991 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry. Barkley is coming off a game where he was held to 66 yards on 14 carries but he had rushed for than 100 yards in three straight games before that.

The blueprint for holding Daniels in check was just put on full display in Week 10 by the Pittsburgh Steelers. He threw for just 202 yards and completed only 17 of 34 passes. The Pittsburgh stop unit is among the league’s best, but Philadelphia is right there, too. Philly has allowed the fewest yards per passing attempt and fourth-lowest completion percentage. The Eagles have also climbed to seventh in defensive DVOA and No. 1 in PFF defense grade while allowing the sixth-lowest EPA per dropback. I’m also expecting the Philly pass rush to have its say. Philadelphia is 10th in pass-rush win rate and second in pass rush grade per PFF, after all.

I like what I’m seeing from this Eagles defense in recent weeks. There is a learning curve with Fangio’s schemes, because of the way they disguise everything and we’re seeing things click. It’ll be a lot of a rookie QB on the road with a short week to prep. The Eagles are tops in EPA allowed per dropback and success rate allowed per pass the last four weeks, getting good pressure with just the front four. And this defenses protects against the home run ball, allowing the third fewest passing plays of 20+ yards - something Washington depends upon. And on offense, Philly will put this game in sand, going run-heavy, chewing up TOP and just not giving Daniels and the Commanders touches.