Washington Commanders

Picks

The defending Super Bowl champs have underachieved most of the season but are fresh off a 31-0 win against the Raiders, and I expect them to run up the score once again. Washington is clearly in full-on tank mode after shutting down Jayden Daniels for the remainder of the season. The Commanders are 31st in the league in defensive EPA, and their offense won't be much better without their franchise quarterback. The Eagles are the far more talented team, and they need to enter the playoffs with some momentum. I'm more than happy to lay less than a touchdown on the favorites in this matchup. 

Philly faces another soft defense in Week 16, and I’m confident the Eagles can put enough points on the board while holding the Commanders in check to cover the number. Washington has allowed the seventh-most points per game while surrendering the second-highest EPA and second-most yards per play, and the Commanders also entered Week 15 ranked 27th in defensive DVOA.

Beating up on the Raiders only carries so much weight but Philadelphia’s one-sided win over Las Vegas was exactly what the Eagles needed. Philadelphia put up 31 points, 27 first downs, and 387 yards of offense. Now it heads to the nation’s capital with momentum for the first time in weeks, laying just shy of the key number of six against the Commanders in a Saturday standalone game.  Washington beat New York despite being outgained and allowing 22 first downs to the G-Men. Six of its 29 points came from a punt return touchdown, making an otherwise ho-hum offensive effort look better than it was. Philadelphia is hoping to get two key bodies back in the trenches with OT Lane Johnson and DT Jalen Carter sitting out Sunday’s win. Any positive updates around those players will push this spread higher, so I’m snatching Eagles -5.5 now.