Washington Commanders

4th in NFC East (1 - 2 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Oct 4 09:30 ET

IND @ WAS Picks

NFL Picks
Anytime Touchdown
Darius Slayton logo Darius Slayton Score a Touchdown (Yes: +685)
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 hours ago
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

Slayton's anytime TD is playable up to 5%. He could see immediate snaps with Keenan Allen out, and his six-year history with Daniel Jones gives Indianapolis a ready-made vertical connection for a potential play-action deep shot.

Score First Touchdown
Jonathan Taylor logo Jonathan Taylor Score First Touchdown (Yes: +296)
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 hours ago
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

Taylor's first TD is playable up to 30%. Washington owns the NFL's worst defensive Stuff rate, while Indianapolis has a strong offensive line and one of football's most reliable goal-line scorers to capitalize on the matchup.

Anytime Touchdown
Stefon Diggs logo Stefon Diggs Score a Touchdown (Yes: +252)
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 hours ago
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

Diggs' anytime TD is playable up to 30%. McLaurin's likely absence should concentrate targets around Washington's leader in catches and receiving touchdowns, while Indianapolis ranks 25th in dropback EPA and has exploitable matchups throughout its secondary.

Anytime Touchdown
Josh Downs logo Josh Downs Score a Touchdown (Yes: +198)
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 hours ago
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

Downs' anytime TD is playable up to 40%. Keenan Allen's absence should funnel more targets his way, while Downs draws a favorable slot matchup and can benefit from Jonathan Taylor forcing Washington's linebackers to respect the run.

Anytime Touchdown
Josh Downs logo Josh Downs Score a Touchdown (Yes: +189)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Zak Hanshew logo
Zak Hanshew
Betting Analyst

Downs has yet to reach the endzone this season, but he leads the Colts in targets (24) and reception yards (186) and ranks second in receptions (14). 


Washington has surrendered six receiving touchdowns to wideouts this season, tied with the Arizona Cardinals for most in the NFL.


With Keenan Allen (groin) a non-participant in Friday’s practice and Alec Pierce (heel), the Colts’ receiving depth is razor thin heading to London, and Downs should see even more looks in this highly-exploitable matchup.

Passing Touchdowns
Daniel Jones logo Daniel Jones o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+101)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Zak Hanshew logo
Zak Hanshew
Betting Analyst

The Commanders defense has surrendered the most passing touchdowns per game (3.7) while only forcing two total interceptions. Washington has given up the third-most passing yards per game at a healthy 287.


For as vulnerable as the Commanders are through the air, they’ve been stout against the run, giving up the third-fewest rush yards (56) and no rushing touchdowns.


Jones tossed multiple scores only six times in 13 games last season, and he hasn’t been a prolific QB throughout his career, which accounts for the low probability. Given Washington’s horrendous pass defense and strong rush defense, I’m willing to trade this up to 55% and bet on a breakout performance.

Rushing Yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo Jacory Croskey-Merritt o59.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Zak Hanshew logo
Zak Hanshew
Betting Analyst

“Bill” has totaled 99 snaps this season, racking up 147 yards on 50 total touches. Change-of-pace back Rachaad White has played 95 snaps and leads the backfield in total yards with 151 on 31 touches.


White has been absent from practice all week due to a shoulder injury, and he’s not expected to suit up. The remaining backfield options are rookie Kaytron Allen and veteran Austin Ekeler, who have totaled just 40 yards on nine touches between the two of them.


Croskey-Merritt should see a spike in touches in Week 4, and running lanes should be more open after going 19/36 last week against the fifth-ranked Seattle Seahawks defense. The Colts have given up the sixth-most rush yards at 114 per game.

Total
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail Washington Commanders image thumbnail o47.5 (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Joe Osborne logo
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

The NFL heads to Jolly Old England with two defenses allowing over 30 points per game and ranking 32nd and 30th in yards allowed per play. Both offenses rank inside the Top 10 in the red zone, and Marcus Mariota looks like he's back at Oregon with four TDs, no picks and a 109.7 passer rating. Washington has gone Over in seven straight, while these teams’ games have combined to top 54 points in four of six outings.

Anytime Touchdown
Tyler Warren logo Tyler Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: +190)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Indianapolis tight end Tyler Warren scored in the Colts’ first two games of the season and has a solid shot at finding the end zone in Hotspur Stadium on Sunday. Warren will be a popular passing target for Jones, given Washington’s aggressive pass rush. The Commanders are dialing up the blitz at the fourth highest rate, leaving tight ends plenty of room to operate underneath the coverage for quick releases. Washington has allowed the seventh most yards to TEs but more notably, has given up five touchdowns to the position in only three games. Adding to those issues is an illness to SS Nick Cross, who didn’t make the trip to London. Warren has caught all three balls thrown his way inside the red zone, two of which ended in six points. Touchdown projections for Warren sit between 32% and 50%, with most models at 40%+.

Rushing Yards
Jonathan Taylor logo Jonathan Taylor o89.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Colts star Jonathan Taylor is sixth in rushing yards after three weeks despite Indianapolis handing it off on only 44% of snaps. This trip to London is the first time Indy has been a favorite, setting up a run-positive game script for Taylor. Washington’s run stop unit is running thin. Linebacker Leo Chenal is out for the season after a neck injury in Week 3 and LB Frankie Luvu is fighting a nagging groin ailment. That shorthanded group faces a Colts offensive line rated No. 6 in run block at PFF. Projections for Taylor range from 86 yards to 100, with most models at 90+ yards. My number comes out to 95+ yards from Indy’s stud RB on Sunday.

Total
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail Washington Commanders image thumbnail u47.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Washington’s pace of play slows down with Mariota under center and the Commanders offense is getting too much credit for the 33 points scored in last Sunday’s upset of Seattle. That production benefited from three turnovers (one pick-6) and Seattle’s inability to run the ball. The Commies had extra cracks on offense but managed just 4.0 yards per play and were outgained by almost 180 yards. The Indianapolis Colts won’t have trouble running. Jonathan Taylor anchors an Indy attack that takes its sweet time, eating up the seventh most seconds per play clock. The Colts collected 35:13 in TOP in the win versus Houston and will keep plays short and simple in Week 4.

2 LEG PARLAY
Jonathan Taylor profile picture
Jonathan Taylor Score a Touchdown (Yes)
Anytime Touchdown
Stefon Diggs profile picture
Stefon Diggs Score a Touchdown (Yes)
Anytime Touchdown
Bet now
Pick made: 13 hours ago
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

Taylor is Indianapolis' most reliable goal-line scorer against the NFL's worst Stuff-rate defense. If he scores first, Washington should lean more heavily on the pass, where McLaurin's likely absence could funnel high-value targets toward Diggs.

3 LEG PARLAY
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail Washington Commanders image thumbnail
u47.5
Total
Tyler Warren profile picture
Tyler Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes)
Anytime Touchdown
Jonathan Taylor profile picture
Jonathan Taylor o89.5 Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards
Bet now
Pick made: 3 days ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

International games tend to trend toward the Under and this one will be played at a snail’s pace. The Colts will go run heavy to chew up the clock and limit the exposure of a soft defense while the Commanders come back to earth with a backup under center in a big letdown spot. Tyler Warren already has two touchdowns on the season and exposes the soft underbelly of this aggressive Commies defense, that’s allowed five touchdowns to TEs already in 2026. Jonathan Taylor tests the validity of this Washington run stop unit. His projections call for 90+ rushing yards and his offensive line clears the road against a Commanders defense missing bodies at LB.

Passing Yards
Daniel Jones logo
Daniel Jones o215.5 Passing Yards (-125)
Projection 227.11 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Commanders defense has been gouged for a massive 258.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the most in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the poor Washington Commanders defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a massive 9.14 yards.. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Passing Yards
Marcus Mariota logo
Marcus Mariota o200.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Projection 209.57 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Marcus Mariota's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.3% to 65.9%.
Rushing Yards
Daniel Jones logo
Daniel Jones o9.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Projection 19.2 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to run on 46.4% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. Opposing squads have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (135 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
Rushing Yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Jacory Croskey-Merritt o60.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Projection 66.27 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Right now, the 5th-most run-heavy offense in football (42.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.
Rushing Yards
Jonathan Taylor logo
Jonathan Taylor o90.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Projection 91.57 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to run on 46.4% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. Opposing squads have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (135 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
Receiving Yards
Stefon Diggs logo
Stefon Diggs o55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 62.17 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to garner 6.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
Receiving Yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Jacory Croskey-Merritt o5.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 8.4 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Since the start of last season, the weak Colts defense has conceded the 2nd-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a whopping 1.55 YAC.
Receiving Yards
Chig Okonkwo logo
Chig Okonkwo o29.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 35.3 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. In this week's game, Chig Okonkwo is projected by the projections to place in the 77th percentile among TEs with 4.7 targets.
Receiving Yards
Jonathan Taylor logo
Jonathan Taylor o17.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 20.18 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an impressive 66.7% Route% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor stands among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in football.. In this game, Jonathan Taylor is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 84th percentile among running backs with 3.3 targets.. Jonathan Taylor grades out as one of the leading pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 19.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.. The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, conceding 7.16 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the league.
Receiving Yards
Tyler Warren logo
Tyler Warren u56.5 Receiving Yards (-102)
Projection 54.18 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

43% picking Indianapolis

43%
57%

Total Picks IND 507, WAS 661

Spread
IND
WAS
Total

45% picking Indianapolis vs Washington to go Under

55%
45%

Total PicksIND 433, WAS 360

Total
Over
Under

IND @ WAS · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
WAS +4.5 spread
4.31 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-2.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
WAS +4.5 spread

PROJECTION

4.31 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-2.55% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+3.5 -105
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail Washington Commanders image thumbnail
Under 46.5 Total
43.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.8 DIFFERENCE
20.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail Washington Commanders image thumbnail
Under 46.5 Total

PROJECTION

43.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.8 DIFFERENCE
20.16% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u46.5 -108
Caesars Odds logo
PASSING YARDS
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o215.5 Passing Yards
227.11 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
20.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o215.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

227.11 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
20.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Commanders defense has been gouged for a massive 258.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the most in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the poor Washington Commanders defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a massive 9.14 yards.. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

o215.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING YARDS
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o200.5 Passing Yards
209.57 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
19.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o200.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

209.57 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
19.42% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Marcus Mariota's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.3% to 65.9%.

o197.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o9.5 Rushing Yards
19.20 OVER PROJECTION
+9.7 DIFFERENCE
26.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o9.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

19.20 OVER PROJECTION
+9.7 DIFFERENCE
26.3% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to run on 46.4% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. Opposing squads have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (135 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.

o9.5 -125
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards
66.27 OVER PROJECTION
+5.8 DIFFERENCE
20.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

66.27 OVER PROJECTION
+5.8 DIFFERENCE
20.71% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 5th-most run-heavy offense in football (42.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.

o59.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o90.5 Rushing Yards
91.57 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
16.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o90.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

91.57 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
16.87% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to run on 46.4% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. Opposing squads have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (135 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.

o89.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) o55.5 Receiving Yards
62.17 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
25.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) o55.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

62.17 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
25.43% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to garner 6.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.

o55.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o5.5 Receiving Yards
8.40 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
24.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o5.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

8.40 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
24.57% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Since the start of last season, the weak Colts defense has conceded the 2nd-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a whopping 1.55 YAC.

o5.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chig Okonkwo logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
C. Okonkwo (TE) o29.5 Receiving Yards
35.30 OVER PROJECTION
+5.8 DIFFERENCE
23.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Chig Okonkwo logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
C. Okonkwo (TE) o29.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

35.30 OVER PROJECTION
+5.8 DIFFERENCE
23.16% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. In this week's game, Chig Okonkwo is projected by the projections to place in the 77th percentile among TEs with 4.7 targets.

o28.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o17.5 Receiving Yards
20.18 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
18.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o17.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

20.18 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
18.69% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an impressive 66.7% Route% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor stands among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in football.. In this game, Jonathan Taylor is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 84th percentile among running backs with 3.3 targets.. Jonathan Taylor grades out as one of the leading pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 19.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.. The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, conceding 7.16 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the league.

o17.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) u56.5 Receiving Yards
54.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.3 DIFFERENCE
15.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) u56.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.3 DIFFERENCE
15.95% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.

u57.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) o70.5 Receiving Yards
73.39 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
6.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) o70.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

73.39 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
6.78% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. In this week's game, Josh Downs is expected by the model to land in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets.. Josh Downs ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season with a staggering 20.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.. Josh Downs grades out as one of the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 38.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.. The Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.9%).

o69.5 -115
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) o5.5 Receptions Made
5.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) o5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.13% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. The Commanders pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.5%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (78.5%).. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

o5.5 +100
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.12% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an impressive 66.7% Route% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor stands among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in football.. In this game, Jonathan Taylor is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 84th percentile among running backs with 3.3 targets.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Jonathan Taylor rates as one of the best pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 2.4 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.

o2.5 -120
BetMGM logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts
4.41 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
22.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.41 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
22.08% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to run on 46.4% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. While Daniel Jones has garnered 8.4% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Indianapolis's running game in this game at 14.5%.

o2.5 -180
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts
15.86 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
14.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

15.86 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
14.37% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 5th-most run-heavy offense in football (42.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.

o14.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) u21.5 Rushing Attempts
20.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.4 DIFFERENCE
11.59% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) u21.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

20.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.4 DIFFERENCE
11.59% EV

ANALYSIS

The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).

u21.5 -118
DraftKings logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts
29.97 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
12.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

29.97 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
12.12% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. In this contest, Daniel Jones is projected by the model to have the 10th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.6.

u31.5 -120
BetMGM logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions
19.58 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
10.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

19.58 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
10.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Marcus Mariota's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.3% to 65.9%.

o18.5 -110
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
20.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-8.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-8.86% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Commanders defense has conceded a whopping 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-highest rate in football.. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

o20.5 +104
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.71% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Commanders defense has conceded a whopping 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-highest rate in football.. Since the start of last season, the poor Commanders defense has yielded a monstrous 2.20 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the largest rate in the NFL.. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

+425
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an exceptional 30.8% Red Zone Target Share (93rd percentile) this year, Josh Downs has been as one of the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL.. Josh Downs ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season with a staggering 20.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. The Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.9%).

+175
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.5 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.5 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.95% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Commanders defense has conceded a whopping 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-highest rate in football.. The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the most TDs through the air in the league to TEs: 0.85 per game since the start of last season.. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

+170
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.9 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.9 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 84th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 15.1 figure since the start of last season.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. With a stellar ratio of 0.09 per game through the air (76th percentile), Jonathan Taylor ranks among the best receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to running backs since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Washington Commanders defense has been torched for a monstrous 0.20 receiving TDs per game to opposing RBs: the 10th-biggest rate in football.

-275
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.98% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Stefon Diggs has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.5% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.

+210
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.39% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

+110
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chig Okonkwo logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
C. Okonkwo (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.22% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Chig Okonkwo logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
C. Okonkwo (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.22% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

+375
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
1.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
1.68% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Marcus Mariota's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.3% to 65.9%.

+410
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
John Bates logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Bates (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-15.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
John Bates logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Bates (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-15.33% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

+1500
FanDuel logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.33% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. In this contest, Daniel Jones is projected by the model to have the 10th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.6.

u0.5 -108
FanDuel logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.90 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
13.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.90 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
13.39% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

o0.5 -113
Caesars Odds logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
WAS +4.5 spread
4.31 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-2.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
WAS +4.5 spread

PROJECTION

4.31 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-2.55% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+3.5 -105
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail Washington Commanders image thumbnail
Under 46.5 Total
43.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.8 DIFFERENCE
20.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail Washington Commanders image thumbnail
Under 46.5 Total

PROJECTION

43.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.8 DIFFERENCE
20.16% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u46.5 -108
Caesars Odds logo
PASSING YARDS
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o215.5 Passing Yards
227.11 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
20.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o215.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

227.11 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
20.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Commanders defense has been gouged for a massive 258.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the most in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the poor Washington Commanders defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a massive 9.14 yards.. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

o215.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING YARDS
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o200.5 Passing Yards
209.57 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
19.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o200.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

209.57 OVER PROJECTION
+9.1 DIFFERENCE
19.42% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Marcus Mariota's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.3% to 65.9%.

o197.5 -115
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RUSHING YARDS
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o9.5 Rushing Yards
19.20 OVER PROJECTION
+9.7 DIFFERENCE
26.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o9.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

19.20 OVER PROJECTION
+9.7 DIFFERENCE
26.3% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to run on 46.4% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. Opposing squads have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (135 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.

o9.5 -125
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards
66.27 OVER PROJECTION
+5.8 DIFFERENCE
20.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

66.27 OVER PROJECTION
+5.8 DIFFERENCE
20.71% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 5th-most run-heavy offense in football (42.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.

o59.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o90.5 Rushing Yards
91.57 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
16.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o90.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

91.57 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
16.87% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to run on 46.4% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. Opposing squads have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (135 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.

o89.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) o55.5 Receiving Yards
62.17 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
25.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) o55.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

62.17 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
25.43% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to garner 6.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.

o55.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o5.5 Receiving Yards
8.40 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
24.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o5.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

8.40 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
24.57% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Since the start of last season, the weak Colts defense has conceded the 2nd-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a whopping 1.55 YAC.

o5.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chig Okonkwo logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
C. Okonkwo (TE) o29.5 Receiving Yards
35.30 OVER PROJECTION
+5.8 DIFFERENCE
23.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Chig Okonkwo logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
C. Okonkwo (TE) o29.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

35.30 OVER PROJECTION
+5.8 DIFFERENCE
23.16% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. In this week's game, Chig Okonkwo is projected by the projections to place in the 77th percentile among TEs with 4.7 targets.

o28.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o17.5 Receiving Yards
20.18 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
18.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o17.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

20.18 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
18.69% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an impressive 66.7% Route% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor stands among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in football.. In this game, Jonathan Taylor is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 84th percentile among running backs with 3.3 targets.. Jonathan Taylor grades out as one of the leading pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 19.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.. The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, conceding 7.16 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the league.

o17.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) u56.5 Receiving Yards
54.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.3 DIFFERENCE
15.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) u56.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.18 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.3 DIFFERENCE
15.95% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.

u57.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) o70.5 Receiving Yards
73.39 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
6.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) o70.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

73.39 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
6.78% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. In this week's game, Josh Downs is expected by the model to land in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets.. Josh Downs ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season with a staggering 20.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.. Josh Downs grades out as one of the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 38.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.. The Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.9%).

o69.5 -115
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) o5.5 Receptions Made
5.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) o5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.13% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. The Commanders pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.5%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (78.5%).. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

o5.5 +100
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.12% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an impressive 66.7% Route% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor stands among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in football.. In this game, Jonathan Taylor is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 84th percentile among running backs with 3.3 targets.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Jonathan Taylor rates as one of the best pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 2.4 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.

o2.5 -120
BetMGM logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts
4.41 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
22.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.41 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
22.08% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to run on 46.4% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. While Daniel Jones has garnered 8.4% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Indianapolis's running game in this game at 14.5%.

o2.5 -180
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts
15.86 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
14.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

15.86 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
14.37% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 5th-most run-heavy offense in football (42.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.

o14.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) u21.5 Rushing Attempts
20.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.4 DIFFERENCE
11.59% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) u21.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

20.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.4 DIFFERENCE
11.59% EV

ANALYSIS

The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).

u21.5 -118
DraftKings logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts
29.97 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
12.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

29.97 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
12.12% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. In this contest, Daniel Jones is projected by the model to have the 10th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.6.

u31.5 -120
BetMGM logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions
19.58 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
10.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

19.58 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
10.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Marcus Mariota's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.3% to 65.9%.

o18.5 -110
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
20.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-8.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-8.86% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Commanders defense has conceded a whopping 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-highest rate in football.. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

o20.5 +104
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.71% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Commanders defense has conceded a whopping 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-highest rate in football.. Since the start of last season, the poor Commanders defense has yielded a monstrous 2.20 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the largest rate in the NFL.. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

+425
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an exceptional 30.8% Red Zone Target Share (93rd percentile) this year, Josh Downs has been as one of the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL.. Josh Downs ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season with a staggering 20.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. The Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.9%).

+175
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.5 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Tyler Warren logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
T. Warren (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.5 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.95% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Commanders defense has conceded a whopping 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-highest rate in football.. The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the most TDs through the air in the league to TEs: 0.85 per game since the start of last season.. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

+170
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.9 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jonathan Taylor logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Taylor (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.9 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 84th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 15.1 figure since the start of last season.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. With a stellar ratio of 0.09 per game through the air (76th percentile), Jonathan Taylor ranks among the best receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to running backs since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Washington Commanders defense has been torched for a monstrous 0.20 receiving TDs per game to opposing RBs: the 10th-biggest rate in football.

-275
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.98% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Stefon Diggs has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.5% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.

+210
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.39% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

+110
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chig Okonkwo logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
C. Okonkwo (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.22% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Chig Okonkwo logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
C. Okonkwo (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.22% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

+375
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
1.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
1.68% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. Marcus Mariota's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.3% to 65.9%.

+410
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
John Bates logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Bates (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-15.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
John Bates logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Bates (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-15.33% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

+1500
FanDuel logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.33% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is implied by the Colts being a 4-point favorite in this game.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this week's game.. In this contest, Daniel Jones is projected by the model to have the 10th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.6.

u0.5 -108
FanDuel logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.90 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
13.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Marcus Mariota logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
M. Mariota (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.90 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
13.39% EV

ANALYSIS

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

o0.5 -113
Caesars Odds logo

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'Ghorvath32' is picking Washington to cover (+3.5)

Ghorvath32 is #1 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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IND
WAS
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'dude18555' is picking Indianapolis to cover (-3.5)

dude18555 is #1 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'dude18555' picks Indianapolis vs Washington to go Over (47.5)

dude18555 is #1 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

Total
Over
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'Ghorvath32' picks Indianapolis vs Washington to go Under (47.5)

Ghorvath32 is #1 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'tinylund' is picking Indianapolis to cover (-3.0)

tinylund is #2 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'tinylund' picks Indianapolis vs Washington to go Under (47.5)

tinylund is #2 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'HuggyBear724' picks Indianapolis vs Washington to go Under (47.5)

HuggyBear724 is #2 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'HuggyBear724' is picking Indianapolis to cover (-4.5)

HuggyBear724 is #2 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'PaullyWallnuts' picks Indianapolis vs Washington to go Over (47.5)

PaullyWallnuts is #3 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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Over
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'PaullyWallnuts' is picking Washington to cover (+4.5)

PaullyWallnuts is #3 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'etrain25' picks Indianapolis vs Washington to go Under (47.5)

etrain25 is #4 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'etrain25' is picking Indianapolis to cover (-3.5)

etrain25 is #4 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'jo14014' is picking Indianapolis to cover (-3.5)

jo14014 is #4 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'kengoone' is picking Indianapolis to cover (+1.5)

kengoone is #5 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (1-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'locknload2010' is picking Indianapolis to cover (+1.5)

locknload2010 is #5 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2500 units on the season.

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'locknload2010' picks Indianapolis vs Washington to go Over (49.5)

locknload2010 is #5 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2500 units on the season.

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'RAZORAZE283' is picking Washington to cover (+4.5)

RAZORAZE283 is #6 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Mainacs718' picks Indianapolis vs Washington to go Over (47.5)

Mainacs718 is #7 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Jace' picks Indianapolis vs Washington to go Over (47.5)

Jace is #7 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2500 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'Mainacs718' is picking Washington to cover (+3.5)

Mainacs718 is #7 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'mrsc328' is picking Washington to cover (+4.5)

mrsc328 is #8 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +2500 units on the season.

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'2dawgnation2' is picking Washington to cover (-1.5)

2dawgnation2 is #9 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'zaila11' picks Indianapolis vs Washington to go Over (47.5)

zaila11 is #9 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'zaila11' is picking Indianapolis to cover (-4.5)

zaila11 is #9 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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WAS

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