The Bruins have failed to score more than two goals in four of their past five playoff games, and the Panthers traveled well during the regular season with the fewest goals against (1.78), and 4th-fewest xGA (2.34) per 60, and they posted a 4th-ranked 53.1 CF% at 5-on-5 on the highway. Additionally, limiting the Florida attack will be a key to success for Boston, and an added emphasis on attention to defensive detail will in turn limit the quality offensive opportunities for the Bruins.
Verhaeghe is up to a team-high 57 attempts and ranks second with 29 shots through seven postseason games, and he ranked first in attempts (21.98) and second in shots (10.81) per 60 during the regular season. He's also become more of a primary shooter with the man advantage in the postseason and clicked with projected linemates Anton Lundell and Matthew Tkachuk for a 65.2 CF% across 40:55 of 5-on-5 fice time.
With all the penalties in Game 2, it wouldn't be surprising to see the refs clamp down tonight which could lead to more PP opportunities for both sides. Coyle is centering the top unit for the Bruins who are 0-for-9 with the man advantage of late but were also 6-for-13 to begin the Toronto series so the struggle will end soon. This is the best value of the Boston skaters if this game does see more PP chances and I'm also on Brandon Montour for a PP point at +300 at a half-unit each.
There were 142 minutes in penalties in Game 2 and now with the series moving to Boston, I'm expecting another physical start to Game 3 which will lead to less time and space and therefore fewer scoring opportunities early. It's a pivotal game and there will be a feeling-out process that should also slow the game down early. If Linus Ullmark does get the nod, the Bruins could also protect the net more so after he was put into a bad situation in Game 2. I like this full game Under 5.5 but think this one starts slow.
First, dating back to the regular season, Florida has lost six of its past nine road games. Second, I trust Boston's blue line more than the Panthers. This is not necessarily a knock on Florida’s defensemen, More so, it is a proclamation of the play Boston has gotten from its blue-liners. This postseason, the Bruins rank higher than the Panthers in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.