Sometimes, the person standing in the way of your dreams is your closest friend and practice partner.
Longtime friends and sparring partners Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will meet in the French Open semifinals for the right to vie for their first Roland Garros title. Alcaraz is favored in the French Open odds, but Sinner has defeated his longtime friend and practice partner in two of their past three matches.
Join me as I break this one down with my Alcaraz vs. Sinner predictions for June 7.
French Open Men's Semifinal picks and predictions
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner odds
| (3) Carlos Alcaraz | (2) Jannik Sinner | |
|---|---|---|
| -170 | Moneyline | +140 |
| -2.5 (-122) | Game spread | +2.5 (-110) |
| Over 38.5 (-110) | Total games | Under 38.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel on 6-5.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner match prediction
Sinner will become the new World No. 1 on Monday and stands at 33-2 this season. The Italian’s big serve, monster groundies from both wings, returns, and strong finishes at the net are as good as anyone’s on any surface.
Alcaraz is one of two to defeat Sinner this season, with the Spaniard switching from defense to offense faster than anyone ever has. His massive energy fuels the big groundies and feathery drop shots, but he’s been broken 11 times this event.
This match will come down to a point or two each set, and no one on tour has won more big points this season than Sinner. The soon-to-be World No. 1 can return anything the lighter-serving Alcaraz throws at him, can out razzle his pal's dazzle, and has the rally tolerance to outlast his buddy.
Prediction: Sinner moneyline (+140 at FanDuel)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner best bet
Sinner boasts multiple weapons, but his consistent serve will be the one that wins Friday’s match. He’s banged down 31 aces with only 13 double-faults across his first five matches while getting broken an average of 1.4 times per match.
Alcaraz isn’t the same player who beat Sinner at Indian Wells. His vaunted return game has generated 13.2 break chances per FO match, but he’s only converting 47% of those opportunities.
While I’m fully on board the Sinner train, I like Player “B” (Sinner) to win Over 19.5 games market as my best bet.
The two young warriors have gone the distance in five of their nine matches with seven tiebreakers, and the outcome will likely be decided by a point or two. I believe Sinner will win those big points, but matches on the dirt can be funny, and we don’t want a bad bounce or a missed ball mark to cost us our moneyline play.
Best bet: Sinner Over 19.5 games (-104 at FanDuel)
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