We’ve arrived at the US Open final on the women’s side, with one crowd favorite poised to take home her first grand slam title while the soon-to-be World No. 1 looks for her second career grand slam title.
Let’s take a look at how the match should shake out as we serve up the best angles in our US Open women’s final betting picks and predictions.
US Open Women's Final picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff odds and picks
| (2) Aryna Sabalenka | (6) Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| -125 | Moneyline | +100 |
| -0.5 (-115) | Game spread | +0.5 (-105) |
| Over 22.5 (+100) | Total games | Under 22.5 (-125) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on September 8, 2023.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff match prediction
Coco Gauff’s run to the final of the US Open has taken her past some incredible opponents. She’s beaten a former World No. 1 in Caroline Wozniacki, a former Top-15 player in Elise Mertens, and this year’s Roland Garros finalist Karolina Muchova. Not to mention, she beat talented upstart Mirra Andreeva and the pesky Laura Siegemund.
The one thing that Gauff hasn’t yet done, though, is beat a big hitter. There’s no bigger hitter in the world than Aryna Sabalenka, who has overpowered every opponent she’s stepped on court with. While Gauff has beaten Sabalenka three times in five meetings, those matches won’t tell the story of Saturday’s final.
While it feels foolish to back Sabalenka in front of a raucous New York crowd, on paper she really should win this match. I’d back Sabalenka to break down Gauff’s forehand, which was looking shaky against Muchova, every time. While the American has made significant strides on that wing, Sabalenka will put Gauff’s greatest weakness to its toughest test.
Sabalenka’s win in the Australian Open final should give her the mental fortitude required to power through what is sure to be a hostile environment in Queens. She said after her win over Madison Keys on Thursday that now that she’s played — and won — a grand slam final she will know what kind of emotions to expect on Saturday. That experience should be paramount for a player who has long battled mental demons on the court.
Prediction: Sabalenka (-120 at BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff best bet
One thing we can’t say for sure is that Sabalenka is going to make this quick and easy. The Belarusian has always struggled to find clarity in the biggest matches of her career, and she’s had the tendency to overhit. The Gauff defense is sublime, and it should force the errors out of Sabalenka to negotiate at least one set.
I do think, as the match wears on, that Sabalenka will begin to build control. I expect this match to go the full three sets, with each player having their shine. It feels like an impossibility that Gauff wouldn’t win at least a set here, but I find it just as unlikely that she will have what it takes to make it across the finish line in two.
Let’s remember that Gauff failed to serve out the match against Muchova in the semifinals, and that she’s also made a bad habit of dropping her level throughout this tournament. Both players winning a set will be a certainty with each player feeling tense in such a big moment.
Best bet: Over 22.5 Games (+105 at DraftKings)
