Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski is the highly-anticipated headline event for UFC 284 betting on February 12.
This should be a terrific bout between the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked pound-for-pound fighters. Despite being neck-and-neck in the rankings, UFC odds opened with Makhachev as a massive -400 favorite for the first defense of his lightweight title. Volkanovski comes back at +300 as he moves up in weight to try to become a two-division champ.
Here are my best free UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski picks and predictions for Saturday, February 12 from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.
Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski fight odds
Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Islam Makhachev | Alexander Volkanovski |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +470 | +900 |
| To win by Points | +250 | +550 |
| To win by Submission | +155 | +2,000 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on February 9, 2023.
Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski betting preview
Islam Makhachev has won 11 fights in a row, bringing his career record to 23-1. While he had received criticism for the caliber of his opponents, that can't be questioned anymore after dominating Charles Oliveira to win the lightweight title last October.
He not only outstruck Oliveira on the feet but he was able to control the BJJ specialist on the mat, forcing him to tap out in the second round.
A sambo specialist hailing from Dagestan, Makhachev trained for years with his close friend — and former UFC lightweight champ — Khabib Nurmagomedov. The 31-year-old is a terrific wrestler with relentless takedowns, ferocious ground-and-pound, and strong submission skills.
Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski is on a 22-fight winning streak and has gone a perfect 12-0 in the UFC.
Volkanovski is coming off a unanimous decision victory against Max Holloway last July, marking the fourth successful defense of his featherweight belt. That was a trilogy bout against Holloway and his most impressive victory as he earned scores of 50-45 on all three cards.
The Australian is making a case to be considered the greatest featherweight of all time after beating Holloway three times while also defeating Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, Brian Ortega, and the Korean Zombie.
Despite a short frame, Volk has a freakish 71-inch reach which gives him an advantage in striking exchanges. The 34-year-old is an excellent technical kickboxer with speed and elite cardio, and he also boasts strong wrestling ability.
Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski tale of the tape
| Islam Makhachev | Alexander Volkanovski | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 34 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 70 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 24-1 (4 KO) | Record | 25-1 (12 KO) |
Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Makhachev
Volkanovski is very well-rounded and is able to adjust his game plan depending on his opponent. However, Makhachev does one thing at an elite level and he's consistently able to implement that style on his foes.
The big question about this matchup is whether Volkanovski is big enough to handle the brutally strong Makhachev as he moves up to lightweight. However, Volkanovski competed at the semi-professional level in Rugby League at 214 lbs and he began his MMA career as a welterweight, so his frame can handle the jump.
Nonetheless, it will still be completely different from going up against the Holloways and Ortegas of the world to someone like Makhachev. As great as Volk's cardio is, how will his gas tank hold up when he's being held down and controlled for long stretches? And as much as he loves to throw kicks, that will only create openings for Makhachev to go for single and double-leg takedowns.
The Dagestani is more than just a wrestler and he showed just how dangerous his boxing can be by dropping Oliveira. We've seen Makhachev continue to make improvements and he's a lot better than the guy who went the distance with Davi Ramos in 2019.
In the end, Makhachev's size and grappling will likely be too masterful for Volkanovski to overcome, but the lopsided odds are not giving enough respect to the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Look elsewhere than the moneyline for value here.
Prediction: Makhachev moneyline (-380 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Makhachev by submission
There are levels to grappling and Makhachev is in a different stratosphere. Keep in mind that he submitted Oliveira who is himself an elite grappler with a UFC record 16 submission victories. He controlled all the grappling exchanges with Oliveira thanks to his strength, wrist and hip control.
Volkanovski is a strong defensive wrestler but we saw him taken down by Chad Mendes and Brian Ortega. Ortega was almost able to submit him twice which doesn't bode well for his chances against the stronger and more technical Makhachev.
With four of Makhachev's last five wins coming by submission, back him to win by sub again.
Pick: Makhachev by submission (+165 at DraftKings)
