UFC 307 Prelim Picks & Predictions: Buckley Beats Down "Wonderboy" Thompson

UFC 307 takes place this weekend at the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, and the preliminary card is loaded with competitive fights — including a sleeper candidate for fight of the night in Joaquin Buckley vs. Stephen Thompson.

Here are my best UFC 307 preliminary predictions for Saturday, October 5.

UFC 307 prelim picks and predictions

Potiera vs Almeida
• Prediction: Almeida ML (-400 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Almeida in R1 (+145 at Bet99)

Pennington vs Esparza
• Prediction: Pennington ML (-175 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Pennington by decision (-120 at Bet99)

Buckley vs Thompson
• Prediction: Buckley ML (-230 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Buckley by decision (+125 at Bet99)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

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UFC 307 prelim odds and picks

Ihor Potieria vs Cesar Almeida fight odds

Method of Victory	Potieria	Almeida
To win outright	+280	-380
To win by KO/TKO	+500	-230
To win by decision	+1,100	+875
To win by submission	+1,550	+1,100
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 10-3.

Cesar Almeida saw his hype train derailed when Roman Kopylov introduced the standout kickboxer to the world of MMA. Almeida couldn’t handle Kopylov's grappling and dropped a split decision that should have been unanimous.

He won’t have to worry about that here, as Ihor Potieria is the right guy to make him look good.

Outside of retiring Mauricio Rua, Potieria hasn’t shown much to prove he belongs in the UFC, and he’s a crude brawler who recklessly charges in hoping to land a big shot. He won’t grapple, and he’s easy to hit.

As great as Almeida was in kickboxing, his ceiling is admittedly low in the UFC, but he’s primed for a win. With Potieria constantly coming forward, he’ll be an open book for Almeida. His inability to take a backward step or exhibit defense has him set up for a short night in the octagon.

Prediction: Almeida ML (-400 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Almeida to win in Round 1 (+145 at Bet99)

Tecia Pennington vs. Carla Esparza fight odds

Method of Victory	Pennington	Esparza
To win outright	-175	+140
To win by KO/TKO	+1,000	+850
To win by decision	-120	+200
To win by submission	+1,200	+2,400
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 10-3.

When fighters announce a retirement bout — as Carla Esparza has done here — it’s normally an easy bet against them.

They often face an opponent without enough flaws to exploit, or they’re indifferent to the outcome knowing it’s their last fight regardless.

Though Esparza won six straight before losing to Zhang Weili last November, including victories over Yan Xiaonan and Rose Namajunas, she’s going to need to pull out all the stops against Pennington.

Pennington has solid takedown defense, is a high-volume striker with good movement, and arguably should have gotten the win over Tabatha Ricci earlier this year. After Esparza’s layoff and with the weight of her retirement decision, I don’t see her being sharp enough to slow Pennington down.

Prediction: Pennington moneyline (-175 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Pennington by decision (-120 at Bet99)

Joaquin Buckley vs. Stephen Thompson fight odds

Method of Victory	Buckley	Thompson
To win outright	-220	+175
To win by KO/TKO	+325	+575
To win by decision	+125	+320
To win by submission	+850	+4,000
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 10-3.

Joaquin Buckley is 4-0 since dropping down to welterweight from middleweight, and he’s looking every bit like a future title contender.

His striking and athleticism are excellent, and he’s been tearing through opponents while petitioning for a high-profile fight, which he’s now getting against Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson.

Thompson is one of the best technical kickboxers in UFC history and can still perform well against the right opponent, but Buckley isn’t that opponent. Buckley’s speed, size, and ability to score takedowns will make the 41-year-old Thompson show his age.

In Thompson's UFC career, he has only won one fight where he was taken down — the Kevin Holland fight — where Holland allowed him to get back on his feet. Buckley is hungry and motivated to break into the welterweight elite, and he won’t extend the same courtesy when, not if, he takes Thompson to the ground.

It’s been a good run for "Wonderboy," but Buckley is the pick.

Prediction: Buckley moneyline (-230 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Buckley by decision (+125 at Bet99)

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