UFC Fight Night: Cub Swanson vs Billy Quarantillo Odds, Picks & Predictions

Cub Swanson faces off against Tampa native Billy Quarantillo in the co-main event of the last UFC Fight Night of 2024, and this figures to be a fantastic clash of all-action veterans. Swanson and Quarantillo are both looking to bounce back from a loss in their last fight in a bid to remain relevant at featherweight.

UFC odds have Quarantillo a narrow -160 favorite, and Swanson is a +130 underdog. Here are my Swanson vs. Quarantillo predictions and free betting picks from the Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL.

Swanson vs Quarantillo prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Quarantillo moneyline (-155 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 2.5 rounds (-135 at BET99)

Fight analysis

This fight has the potential to be a barnburner, and it really shouldn’t be because Cub Swanson is 41 years old and is way past his prime, but Billy Quarantillo’s inconsistency prevents him from having this fight in the bag.

On the surface, Quarantillo’s all-action style makes him the kind of fighter Swanson would hate to fight at this stage of his career. He’s a busy striker with good wrestling, though his striking technique is wild, and he's relied more on that in recent fights than his BJJ. However, Swanson is crafty and doesn’t waste his offensive opportunities, not to mention having seen it all in his 17-year career.

There’s no doubt that Quarantillo is going to push the action from the start and try to jump ahead in the striking. He's landing an incredible 7.36 significant strikes per minute and can take things down to the ground when he has to, landing 1.24 takedowns per 15 minutes as well. He isn’t the sharpest striker or a takedown artist. Still, he’s perpetually attacking and looks to overwhelm you with his nonstop pressure, even if it’s just for the sake of being busy. 

Quarantillo’s quantity is matched by Swanson’s quality. Swanson can still throw out some heaters and is formidable on the ground, so the key is that he needs to be able to slow Quarantillo down with counters and block his takedowns to reduce his striking output. He has a 62% takedown defense and 50% significant striking accuracy, and blow for blow, he’s the bigger striker.

I can see Swanson timing Quarantillo early and catching him with counters, but as Quarantillo keeps coming forward and keeps moving his hands, those windows to land those kinds of shots will get narrower as time goes by.

The one thing about Quarantillo in regard to his UFC career is that he's never lost a fight where he’s held an advantage in landed strikes, though he’s never won a fight where he’s the one being outlanded. I don’t see Swanson being able to stifle his activity long enough to steal a win, though it’s not outside the realm of possibility.

I’m going with Quarantillo to outpace the aging legend in what should be a fun fight that will be as close as the odds indicate.

Best best analysis

While I’m picking Quarantillo to win, it is not outside the realm of possibility that Swanson can get this done. With these two perhaps just as good as the other, this could be a tough fight to comfortably call, though the potential outcome is a bit clearer to see.

Both Swanson and Quarantillo’s fights tend to go the distance, and with neither fighter possessing crippling knockout power or great submission skills, taking the fight to go Over 2.5 rounds is the best bet to make.

Cub Swanson vs Billy Quarantillo odds

Method of Victory	Swanson	Quarantillo
To win outright	+125	-155
To win by KO/TKO	+475	+315
To win by decision	+265	+220
To win by submission	+1900	+625
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 12-14.

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Cub Swanson vs Billy Quarantillo tale of the tape

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