UFC 314 Michael Chandler vs Paddy Pimblett Predictions, Picks & Odds

Michael Chandler takes on Paddy Pimblett in a five-round co-main event at UFC 314 on Saturday night. 

UFC odds opened with "Paddy the Baddy" as a small +110 underdog, but money has poured in on him and he's now favored at -160 with Chandler coming back at +125.

Both of these fighters are aggressive and hittable, but don't bet on an early stoppage here. See why with my Chandler vs. Pimblett predictions and free betting picks for April 12, from Kaseya Center in Miami.

Chandler vs Pimblett prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Pimblett moneyline (-160 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+115 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Paddy Pimblett is on an eight-fight winning streak and has gone 6-0 in the UFC. To be fair, his level of competition has been significantly lower than the murderer's row of lightweight contenders faced by Michael Chandler. 

Pimblett's most impressive wins have been against washed-up older fighters in King Bobby Green and Tony Ferguson. However, Chandler is almost 39 and his only win in the last four years came against Ferguson, so the "washed-up, older fighter" label could be applied to him. 

Chandler is still an explosive athlete with powerful hands and a strong wrestling base. But his physical attributes aren't able to make up for his lax striking defense and poor fight IQ. He could also struggle against the length of Pimblett, who can fire kicks at range and use his superior grappling when Chandler closes distance.

There are questions surrounding Pimblett, namely the fact that he leaves his chin in the air, and Chandler's devastating overhand. That said, he has good durability and has shown the ability to recover even after eating big punches.

Paddy the Baddy is also faster than Chandler, and combines high-volume striking with elite grappling. Pimblett has more paths to victory than Chandler (who seems knockout or bust), and that along with the nine-year age gap is enough for me to lean towards him on the moneyline. 

Best bet analysis
The moneyline value on Pimblett has dried up but there is value on the Over 2.5 rounds prop at plus money.

Despite his age and aggressiveness, Chandler has gone to the third round in three of his last four fights. If Oliveira couldn't finish him, it won't be easy for Pimblett to get the job done early either. Likewise, three of Pimblett's last four bouts have gone past the midway point of the third round.

Pimblett has vowed to finish Chandler within two rounds but he tired against Ferguson by emptying the tank in the first round while hunting for a stoppage. Expect a more patient approach from him here, especially since he'll be wary of Chandler's power and will try to grind out minutes with his grappling.

Michael Chandler vs Paddy Pimblett odds

Method of Victory	Chandler	Pimblett
To win outright	+130	-155
To win by KO/TKO/DQ	+265	+245
To win by decision or technical decision	+725	+875
To win by submission	+875	+230
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 4-12.

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Michael Chandler vs Paddy Pimblett tale of the tape

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